How Gresham’s Law explains why news sites are turning off comments

Re/Code is turning off comments. This comes after Reuters turned off comments, and many other sites have dialled back on allowing comments – Popular Science, the Chicago Sun-Times, and so on. Huffington Post stopped “anonymous” (actually pseudonymous) comments in August 2013.

Pew Research coincidentally has some new research out headlined “About 1 in 5 victims of online harassment say it happened in the comments section“.

It says:

While social media sites (66%) were the most common place noted for harassment, comments sections were named more frequently than online gaming sites (16%) and discussion sites like reddit (10%)… One respondent said, “Comment sections of news articles often contain some very racist, homophobic, sexist language.” Another noted that, on news sites, “people are brutal and seem to feel way too comfortable in their anonymity.”

Comments on newspaper sites are generally rubbish, aren’t they? Snarky, pointless, off-topic, flame-baiting… I think it’s because Gresham’s Law mostly applies.

Gresham’s Law is an economic tenet which is often stated as “bad money drives out good”. That isn’t a good way to put it, really. It’s better described (as in Wikipedia) through an example about money.

Minted

The US used to mint silver to make its nickels and dimes. But the rising price of silver made this expensive – so expensive that the silver in a nickel or dime would be worth more than 5c or 10c. So it began minting nickels and dimes with cheaper metals, bringing the “true” value of the coins below their face value. This preserves their usefulness as currency.

But some of the silver-bearing coins remained in circulation. What’s the logical response to this? If you’re someone with an eye for profit, you offer the equivalent face value of non-silver coins (or paper dollars) for those silver-bearing coins, and leave the rubbish coins to everyone else. In theory, you’ve just made an instant profit. Will you spend those coins as “coins”? Of course not.

What’s happened here is that high-value coins have been replaced with cheap, lower-value ones. People will keep the high-value coins out of circulation because they’re not being properly rewarded for spending them – what they get for spending them is less than the value they perceive in them. They can get better elsewhere.

Bitcoined

Gresham’s Law has more general application, though. In general, you can use it to mean that “people will opt for the cheaper way to get it done”. There’s an interesting economics paper around at the moment which looks at the economics of mining Bitcoin, and suggests that in the long run it will be mined by botnets because then you don’t have to pay for the electricity. You can dispute their reasoning (most profitable Bitcoin mining is done on ASIC rigs these days) but we’ve seen a version before – it’s much easier to hire a botnet to send a gazillion pieces of spam than to hire a server.

So now we come to comments on newspaper sites. I highlight these because they’re different from specialist forums where people with similar interests tend to gather. Newspaper sites get huge numbers of people passing by, though the number who comment is tiny (typically far less than 1% of those who view an article).

But a significant number of those commenters are persistent – and this is where the “bad” can drive out the “good”. There are determined people who just want to leave comments, and view the space below the line as “their” territory. They aren’t interested in adding quality, or bringing new information to the discussion. They just want to dominate.

For an example, look at the comments below this article by Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. There’s a couple of people in there who I can recognise as “regulars” from just having read two of AKH’ articles in the past 24 hours, and looking at the comments: “Owl;Net” and “William.Farrel”. It’s clear that they don’t really have any new information to bring; they’re just there to wind people up.

For people who might have useful experiences, or insight, to bring, the sight of comments and threads like those are a natural STOP sign. Why would you invest your time, knowledge and special insight adding a comment to a thread when you have idiots like that already busy (and commenting repeatedly, and repetitively)? Why would you want to be the 133rd commenter on a story, if you have an insight that you consider has a separate and unique value?

In the manner of someone choosing not to spend their silver-bearing coin, the smart people will tend to stay away from places like that. They might try it once or twice, but then discover that nothing special happens to their comment; it’s just left to twist in the morass of snakes. Deleting comments doesn’t help much; at worst it leaves a sort of potholed wasteland where you wonder quite how offensive the person was to merit the thunderbolt.

What’s been tried

There have been attempts to improve this situation: the Guardian has “staff picks” where particularly insightful or helpful comments get flagged for more visibility, and can be found through a special tab. At the Daily Mail, there’s up- and down-voting – though this doesn’t of course ensure that comments which are intelligent or knowledgeable will be rewarded.

In fact, there’s negative reward. If someone talks nonsense, you can rebut them with facts. Then what happens? Nothing. The person who talked nonsense is free to keep on talking nonsense. There’s no reputation harm for talking rubbish. (By the way, that exchange is a rare case of someone whose views have high externally perceived worth taking the time to rebut twaddle. He doesn’t do it very often 17 comments in more than two years.

For the knowledgeable person, this is negative reward – swapping silver coins for dud metal.

Problems like this are found in all sorts of places where you have unmoderated discussion, though I think that specialist forums probably avoid some of it simply because there’s a shared interest in the topic, rather than the conflict that you often see around topics on newspaper sites. (It’s also why the comments on what we can politely call fan sites will tend towards an echo chamber of approval or disapproval, depending on how the story above leads them.)

There’s the companion problem of pseudonymity causing people to simply find it easy to be rude – letting out their frustrations with everything else in flinging insults around – but that doesn’t fully explain why there are so infrequently any useful comments, especially on technology articles (which is what I see the most, of course).

But rationally, would you want to dump your useful insights into a place where you’ll get someone who has too much time on their hands just writing “LOL FANBOI OMG”, and whose remarks will get just as much prominence as yours? No. Perhaps that’s why less than 1% of people comment: all the other 99% tried it and discovered it was a waste of their time.

Et tu, Twitter?

Why doesn’t Twitter have the same problem? By contrast to the mess that is commenting on news sites, I generally find that people who interact with me on Twitter are interesting, helpful, polite, and offer links to stuff I didn’t know about. And they’re willing to correct me without making it necessary to hang an insult on them. Well, usually.

The difference with Twitter, I think, is that it’s a conversation: there’s always the chance that you can have a rational discussion, which seems often to be almost impossible in comments. If someone’s hell-bent on annoying and insulting you on Twitter, you can just ignore them or block them. If they’re hell-bent on the same in a comment thread, there’s not much you can do, especially since being rational and quoting facts brings no benefit. The proportion of people who’ve admitted they’re wrong on comment threads is as close to zero as you can get and still be a number. The number who’ve admitted being wrong on Twitter might not be high, but I’d bet it’s significantly higher.

Twitter has key two advantages: it’s live, and it streams past. You don’t get either of those feelings on comments threads. As Mic Wright once wrote, newspaper site comments are the radioactive waste of the internet:

At their worst, comments are like toxic waste buried under the foundations of an article and irradiating all rational debate with ignorance and aggression. And, like radiation, the effect of the internet commenting culture is spreading. The degradation of discourse online is mirrored in real-world dialogue. Adults who would balk at bullying in school playgrounds are happy to fling snide and often extremely aggressive comments around.

Kill them with a file

For general-purpose, general-readership sites, commenting is broken in its present form. The irony is that it used to work really well, back in the days of newsgroups and Usenet. Even though newsgroups were ostensibly free for anyone to post on, you could also configure your newsreader to ignore particular posters or topics or pieces of content in posts. (Usenet died because the spambots overran it in the end.) Slashdot had, and still has, its scoring system which you can use for filtering to choose what comments you see (score 5: damn good idea).

I often long for the days of killfiles; it would make the experience of finding the needles in the haystack far more pleasant, and less like finding needles in a slurry tank. Some people do have useful things to say; some people don’t. Yes, some people can write scripts that will make comments by particular people invisible, but those don’t work for the majority. We need something akin to killfiles, akin to Slashdot’s scoring system, to reclaim comments.

Although the logical extension is that if we treat the leaving of comments as being like “spending” (which it is – of the commenter’s attention and knowledge) then the only way to retrieve it from the inexorable creep of Gresham’s Law is to directly reward people for doing it well. Quite what form that “reward” needs to take isn’t obvious (you can come up with a few, I’m sure). But I think it would make a difference.

In the meantime, the comments are going off all over the internet, tiny bit by tiny bit. It calls to mind the death of the long tail of blogging which I wrote about in 2009. (I’m never sure that Tumblr’s quick grab-someone-else’s-content-and-+1 format is really “blogging”. Low friction tends to low value-added.)

Comments have their supporters – Mathew Ingram of Gigaom in particular (and he’s spent his time in the moderation trenches) – but there’s a clear trend away from them.

The radioactive nature, the abuse, the lack of broader engagement, and the fact that lots of the writers are actually on social media, not trawling those comments, all points towards Gresham’s Law taking its inexorable toll. Comments on news sites are broken. Until and unless there’s a fix, the number of established sites that drop them will keep growing.

Start up: Apple and Samsung split $300bn, Shazam v music biz, Lookout: Android malware!, sapphire tales and more


Defective sapphire boules from GTAT’s furnaces – from pictures sent by Apple to GTAT creditors. Source: Wall Street Journal.

A selection of 10 links for you. Dogs must be carried on escalator.

The $300bn smartphone industry >> Counterpoint Technology

Neil Shah:

Apple alone will contribute to roughly a third of the smartphone industry revenues in 2014, As Apple will cross the $100bn mark in iPhone hardware revenues this year – the first time in history for any mobile phone manufacturer.

To put into some more context the scale and value Apple or Samsung brings to the industry:
In Q3 2014, the Apple iPhone 5S alone generated more revenues than all the mobile phone hardware revenues generated by LG + Xiaomi + Sony + Huawei combined.

Launched in Sep 2014, within just two weeks, the iPhone 6 series (6 & 6 Plus) together generated more than three times the revenues generated by Xiaomi’s total smartphone revenues in Q3 2014. [Xiaomi was the third biggest smartphone company by shipments in Q3 2014.]

Meanwhile, the Samsung Galaxy S5 alone generated more revenues than all the mobile phone hardware revenues generated by Nokia+Lenovo+Motorola+HTC combined.


The Shazam effect >> The Atlantic
Derek Thompson looks at whether the advent of products such as Shazam – which can map exactly where people are getting interested in a song, and how it spreads – are “bad for music”. (No.) But we, humans, are:

Now that the Billboard rankings are a more accurate reflection of what people buy and play, songs stay on the charts much longer. The 10 songs that have spent the most time on the Hot 100 were all released after 1991, when Billboard started using point-of-sale data—and seven were released after the Hot 100 began including digital sales, in 2005. “It turns out that we just want to listen to the same songs over and over again,” [Silvio] Pietroluongo [Billboard’s director of charts] told me.

Because the most-popular songs now stay on the charts for months, the relative value of a hit has exploded. The top 1% of bands and solo artists now earn 77% of all revenue from recorded music, media researchers report. And even though the amount of digital music sold has surged, the 10 best-selling tracks command 82% more of the market than they did a decade ago. The advent of do-it-yourself artists in the digital age may have grown music’s long tail, but its fat head keeps getting fatter.


Samsung, white-box players looking to take over 10-15 million feature phone demand from Microsoft Mobile >> Digitimes Research

With Microsoft Mobile’s announcement in July 2014 it will terminate its feature phone business within a year and a half, Samsung Electronics and China’s white-box handset players have been aggressively competing for the market since the third quarter, and MediaTek and Spreadtrum are both expected to benefit from Microsoft’s decision.

Digitimes Research estimates that Microsoft Mobile’s monthly feature phone shipments in 2014 are around 10m-15m units.

Visiting China’s white-box handset players and related component makers, Digitimes Research discovered that the white-box industry is shipping 35m-40m feature phones each month in the second half of 2014, and with Microsoft gradually reducing its feature phone scale, they are eagerly trying to take over demand left by the software giant.

Feature phone market is shrinking fast, but there’s a little margin left at the bottom.


Google must be crazy? A web balloon crashes in south Africa >> Digits – WSJ

According to a report Thursday in the Afrikaans-language Beeld newspaper, Urbanus Botha, who farms in the arid landscape of the Karoo south of Bloemfontein and Lesotho in the center of South Africa, came across the crashed balloon and initially thought it a weather balloon from the nearby weather station at De Aar. He called up the station’s office but nobody picked up, so he packed it into his pickup truck, thinking that its plastic could come in handy as he planned to repaint his shed.

“The huge piece of plastic filled my whole van,” Botha said.

Botha didn’t know what to make of the balloon, especially since it contained several electronic components. His 20-year-old daughter, Sarita, was just as intrigued, and took photos of the balloon on her smartphone, sending them to her brothers John, 30, and Benny, 27. The brothers identified the words “Made in the USA” and “Google X” on the pictures, and so Googled “Google X” and balloons…

…Project Loon should have a “semipermanent” ring of balloons floating across the Southern Hemisphere in the next year or so, Google says.

Similar to June 2014, when another Google Loon balloon crashed into the sea off New Zealand.


Breached webcam and baby monitor site flagged by watchdogs >> BBC News

The public is being warned about a website containing thousands of live feeds to baby monitors, stand-alone webcams and CCTV systems.

Data watchdogs across the world have drawn attention to the Russian-based site, which broadcasts footage from systems using either default passwords or no log-in codes at all.

The site lists streams from more than 250 countries and other territories.

It currently provides 500 feeds from the UK alone…

…China-based Foscam was the most commonly listed brand, followed by Linksys and then Panasonic.

This “warning” is shutting the stable door after the horse has moved to the next town, got married and brought up a family. The terrible security on the systems, though, is the makers’ fault.


Malicious software said to spread on Android phones >> NYTimes.com

For years security researchers have warned that it was only a matter of time before nasty digital scourges like malicious software and spam would hit smartphones.

Now they say it is has finally happened.

A particularly nasty mobile malware campaign targeting Android users has hit between 4m and 4.5m Americans since January of 2013, according to an estimate by Lookout, a San Francisco mobile security company that has been tracking the malware for about two years.

Lookout first encountered the mobile malware, called NotCompatible, two years ago and has since seen increasingly sophisticated versions. Lookout said it believes, based on attempted infections of its user base of 50m, that the total number of people who have encountered the malware in the United States exceeds 4m.

Yikes. Here’s Lookout’s blogpost, and fuller investigation, which notes that “The operators behind NotCompatible.C have built up their population of infected devices on the back of massive spam campaigns and a lack of mobile threat protection on device populations.” NotCompatible disguises itself as a system update, and uses very sophisticated detection prevention and C&C work. (Thanks @Steven Moore for the link.)


App Annie reports global app store growth and opens doors to the underdog >> Infinite Monkeys

The joint App Annie/MEF report portrays a global app economy dominated by two giants of the industry: Google Play had downloads this year that were 60% higher than the iOS App Store, but the App Store managed to maintain a similar 60% lead in overall revenue. With emerging markets looking to get a piece of both companies’ profits, the drive for market share has become an uphill battle.

As Google Android (as opposed to AOSP Android) goes into more emerging economies, this difference – more downloads, but less per-download revenue versus iOS – is likely to wider. Benedict Evans calculated in the summer that on average an iOS user generated 4x the revenue of an Android user; projects such as Android One will make that tend towards 5x and 6x, even as the Android user base expands.

That’s not a bad thing; it’s just an outcome of the numbers.


Machine learning showdown: Apache Mahout vs Weka >> Algorithmia Blog

We here at Algorithmia are firm believers that no one tool can do it all – that’s why we are working hard to put the world’s algorithmic knowledge within everyone’s reach. Needless to say, that’s a work that will be in progress for awhile, but we’re well on the way to getting many of the most popular algorithms out there. Machine learning is one of our highest priorities, so we recently made available two of the most popular machine learning packages: Weka and Mahout.

Test machine learning against hand-drawn numbers (your hand does the drawing). The results are quite variable.


Inside Apple’s broken sapphire factory >> WSJ
Great work by Daisuke Wakabayashi:

Manufacturing wasn’t the only problem. In August, one of the former workers said, GT discovered that 500 sapphire bricks were missing. A few hours later, workers learned that a manager had sent the bricks to recycling instead of shipping. Had they not been retrieved, the misfire would have cost GT hundreds of thousands of dollars.

By that point, it was apparent that sapphire wouldn’t be used for the screens on the new iPhones, which went on sale Sept. 19. Yet Apple still was eager to get as much sapphire as possible, the people familiar with its operations said. Apple’s letter said it only received 10% of the sapphire that GT originally promised.

Also notable:

Apple consumes one-fourth of the world’s supply of sapphire to cover the iPhone’s camera lens and fingerprint reader. Early last year, the company began looking for a much larger supply, to cover the iPhone’s screen.


Business lessons from Apple suppliers >> WSJ

“Apple always asks the suppliers to expand their manufacturing facility to meet the rush demand for its new product, but we have to make our own judgment as the big orders only last for a few months,” said a manager at an Apple supplier. “For example, Apple might want us to increase 100 production lines, but we would only add 50 to 60 gradually.”

Taiwanese touch screen maker Wintek is one example of a company that over-expanded on Apple hopes. Long a secondary touch screen supplier for Apple’s iPhones and iPads, the company expanded its facilities on the prospect of growth, but ended up losing new orders when Apple shifted to new technology to make screens thinner, people familiar with the matter said. The company has languished for the past few years in operating losses.

Some suppliers said they refused similar arrangements as the one GT took, as they did not want to give up their autonomy.

“I know some suppliers took Apple’s offer to reduce investment in machinery but the equipment can only be used to manufacture Apple’s product,” an executive at a different Apple supplier said. “This is a risky arrangement as it limits the supplier’s ability to adjust its manufacturing resources when Apple’s orders decrease.”

The Apple-GTAT episode should probably be taught in business schools.


Start here: Firefox dumps Google, 50m Lumias?, Galaxy Note v iPhone 6+ screens, Uber accounting, and more


Search no further for Yahoo if you use Firefox. Well, maybe.

A selection of 11 links for you. Ventilate room thoroughly.

New search strategy for Firefox: promoting choice & innovation >> The Mozilla Blog

Today we are announcing a change to our strategy for Firefox search partnerships.  We are ending our practice of having a single global default search provider. We are adopting a more local and flexible approach to increase choice and innovation on the Web, with new and expanded search partnerships by country:

• United States

Under a new five-year strategic partnership announced today, Yahoo Search will become the default search experience for Firefox in the U.S.
Starting in December, Firefox users will be introduced to a new enhanced Yahoo Search experience that features a clean, modern interface that brings the best of the Web front and center.

Wow. A few days ago I wrote “I’m certain that no matter what price Mozilla demands (it presently gets about 90% of its revenue from Google kickbacks on searches), Google will pay it. Why? Because the cost of losing 20% of the desktop to Microsoft search at once is far greater than the odd millions it shovels Mozilla’s way.” So, that’s me wrong.

It’s not clear yet whether Google dumped Firefox, or Yahoo outbid Google; the latter seems unlikely, unless Google substantially cut its offer from the previous $300m three-year deal. Last time, Microsoft pushed up the bidding up to try to get Bing there; Google outbid it. No doubt the details will emerge in the coming days, or hours. Also unclear: what the default search will be in European countries. (Russia: Yandex; China: Baidu.) Quite a coup for Marissa Mayer, though.

Firefox does have a problem, though: it’s nowhere in mobile, and that’s increasingly where the search volume is. Update: Mozilla tells me that Google will remain the default for now in Europe.

Reaction on Twitter is that people will just switch the default back to Google. There’s sure to be some sort of search volume target in Yahoo’s deal; if too few searches come to Yahoo, Mozilla will lose out financially.


Passenger stuck with $1,171 Wi-Fi bill on Singapore Airlines flight >> WSJ Digits blog

Jeremy Gutsche, chief executive of Toronto-based innovation consultancy Trend Hunter, says he unwittingly accrued the charges on a flight last week from London to Singapore.

Gutsche says he signed up for a 30 megabyte Internet plan, which cost $28.99, and was aware that he would be responsible for data beyond that limit. But he was stunned when he learned upon landing that viewing some 155 pages — mostly checking email and uploading a PowerPoint document — had resulted in $1,142 of overage fees, he said in a blog post and on Twitter.

PowerPoint considered… expensive. (It was about 4MB, Gutsche says.)


Display color accuracy shootout >> Displaymate

Ray Soniera:

Some manufacturers and models provide better color accuracy than others. We have taken the six best mobile displays from our Display Technology Shoot-Out article series over the last year and compared their color accuracies all together side-by-side with detailed and very revealing measurement results. Since we only test the best performing displays to begin with, they were already known to have fairly good color accuracy, so we’ll learn which are the Best of the Best, and the reasons why…
 
But why is color accuracy important? Poor to mediocre color accuracy has been the rule since the dawn of color TVs in the 1950s, and people are also accustomed to seeing mediocre color prints from their film and now digital cameras. But the technology is already available that makes it possible for today’s consumer displays to be as color accurate as the best studio production monitors that cost $50,000 ten years ago. And once you get used to beautiful accurate colors on a display you won’t want to go back…

TL:DR: Samsung’s Galaxy Note 4 comes out top, Surface Pro 3 next, iPhone 6 Plus and iPad Air 2 are good on skin tones but score badly on others. Not clear who makes Apple’s screens.


Samsung preps new mobile video service >> The Information

Jessica Lessin:

Samsung Electronics is rebooting its mobile video strategy in a test of whether short-form video content can drive mobile revenues just as games have.

The South Korean company has earmarked several tens of millions of dollars to invest in short-form video for a new mobile product, according to people Samsung talked to about the effort. Internally, the product had gone by the code name Volt but will launch under another one.

The initiative is being overseen by John Pleasants, a gaming veteran who managed Disney’s mobile services and gaming business before joining Samsung as executive vice president of media solutions in June. While the initial business model for the service, which could also include music, isn’t clear, over time the company is looking to create media services for which it could charge a few dollars a month, said one of the people briefed.

Possibly might work in South Korea; can’t see it getting any traction in the US or Europe. Nokia used to think it could charge people a few dollars a month for mapping services, which is why it bought Navteq for $8.1bn in 2007, two years after Google Maps launched and a year before Android did. Nice timing, Nokia. Similarly, “short-form video” is already plentiful – and free.


What Uber drivers really make (according to their pay stubs) >> Buzzfeed

Johana Bhuiyan:

So we calculated Khalid’s new average of net income per hour over the five weeks I had access to by distributing his two largest expenses of being an Uber driver (rent and insurance) of approximately $641.67 over hours worked per week and subtracted that hourly expense from the net income per hour based on his pay stubs. His original average hourly net income without expenses was $32.90. Accounting for two weeks where he was technically in debt and could not cover both his rent AND insurance because he did not make enough, Khalid’s new average including expenses was a net income of $10.36.
Even drivers who own their vehicles and don’t have to worry about rental payments still come up against concerns.

Telling that NY general manager Josh Mohrer, who offered reporters the chance to verify his claims that Uber drivers make an average of $25 per hour (before expenses) is being investigated by Uber for allegedly tracking Bhuiyan.

I deleted the Uber app months ago over its tactics against Lyft. It seems that every day brings another reason to make its icon do the bee dance on your phone screen before you zap it.


GT Advanced creditors chafe at settlement deal with Apple >> Re/code

Holders of GT Advanced’s notes, including Aristeia Capital and an affiliate of Wolverine Asset Management, said in court papers that the “extraordinary allegations against Apple … call into question the adequacy of the settlement agreement.”

The noteholders cited allegations that Apple breached its contract and acted unfairly as GT Advanced’s lender. The noteholders also said Apple’s claims on GT Advanced’s equipment may be unsecured. This would put Apple among the last creditors to be paid, not the first as Apple’s deal anticipates.

Apple has denied GT Advanced’s allegations. In court filings, Apple has called the accusations “scandalous and defamatory” and “intended to vilify Apple and portray Apple as a coercive bully.”

Likely to run and run. (Reminder: I wrote about the travails at GTAT last week.)


Apple plans to push Beats to every iPhone >> FT.com

Matthew Garrahan and Tim Bradshaw:

Apple’s revamped Beats service will operate on a paid subscription model. The service, which is likely to be rebranded under the iTunes label, will form part of a three-pronged music strategy for Apple, alongside downloads and iTunes Radio, which it launched in 2013. The trio will challenge not only Spotify, whose paid streaming service has more than 10m subscribers, but also Pandora and Soundcloud.

Apple is preparing to put its new Watch on sale in early 2015, to which the new music push could be linked.

200m iTunes accounts, and many more iPhones than that in use. Obstacles: song/artist licensing (Beats and iTunes Radio are both only available in the US); price; getting those already on subscription services to switch.

Techcrunch’s Josh Constine originally reported this in late October, but the FT adds timing (March) and the app install.


More than 50 million Lumias activated, 320,000 apps in store and more interesting Windows Phone stats from Microsoft >> WM Power User

[Microsoft] also revealed [at a blogger conference] there were 320,000 apps in the store, up from 300,000 in August 2014.

Another very interesting item was that 50m Lumias have been activated to date [worldwide].  While this does not tell us how many Windows Phones are still in use, with Lumias being more than 90% of Windows Phones in use according to AdDuplex, it does set some kind of upper limit.

According to Nokia’s/Microsoft Mobile’s financials, 67m Lumias have been shipped since 3Q 2011. So this doesn’t quite square: where are the other 17m?

Meanwhile if AdDuplex’s 90% is right, then that’s an upper limit of 55m Windows Phone devices active – about as many as active BlackBerry subscribers (not BBM users), and a long way from the 350m or so iPhones (500m-odd iOS devices) and billion-plus Google Android devices. In fact, AOSP (non-Google Android, used in China) is about as big as iOS.

That makes Windows Phone the fourth ecosystem. Still, one of the slides in the presentation says it’s outsold the iPhone in 24 countries, so that’s OK.


Report: Android One facing stiff competition and low sales in India >> Android Authority

Android One was announced at Google I/O earlier this year, and with it, a promise that Mountain View would be handling all of the updates for these low-priced devices aimed at developing countries. Though some might not be aware, not one but three One devices launched in India mid-September, but the problem is not one of them has done well. Those trying to find out why need only look at Samsung’s plight: stiff competition.

Consumer sales is a game of numbers, and for the last two weeks of September, a total of 230,000 units running Android One were imported into India. But it gets worse: only 200,000 devices were imported for the entire month of October, according to data shared with The Economic Times by local marketing firm Cybex Exim Solutions. To put things into even better perspective, “for the month of October, roughly 8m smartphones were shipped into [India], of which Android One would be just about 2.5%,” a source told The Economic Times. Compare this with the extremely rosy expectations that were originally had.

The original extremely rosy expectations came from chipmaker MediaTek which expected 2m sales by the end of the year . Could be tough to meet. Small onboard storage, online-only sales and supply problems are listed as parts of the problem.


Helping users find mobile-friendly pages >> Official Google Webmaster Central Blog

Starting today, to make it easier for people to find the information that they’re looking for, we’re adding a “mobile-friendly” label to our mobile search results…

…We see these labels as a first step in helping mobile users to have a better mobile web experience. We are also experimenting with using the mobile-friendly criteria as a ranking signal.

“Ranking signal” means “we might demote you if you’re bad on mobile”. Questions: (1) how large or small does a screen have to be to count as “mobile”? Or is it dependent on access method, eg 3G = mobile, Wi-Fi = fixed? (2) how strong will the signal of being non-mobile be?

Also: Google first said it would do this “in the near future” 18 months ago. Clearly it wasn’t so near. What made it harder?


Rides of Glory >> Uber Blog

Cab service Uber thinks it has erased the “walk of shame” (ask your parents, kids) and replaced it with the “ride of glory”. Morning glory? Anyhow:

One of the neat things we can do with our data is discover rider patterns: are there weekend riders that only use Uber post-party? What about the workday commuters who use us every morning? It was while playing around with this idea of (blind!) rider segmentation that we came up with the Ride of Glory (RoG). A RoGer is anyone who took a ride between 10pm and 4am on a Friday or Saturday night, and then took a second ride from within 1/10th of a mile of the previous nights’ drop-off point 4-6 hours later (enough for a quick night’s sleep). (This time window may not be the best, but small changes don’t change the overall pattern.)

RoGer. Haha. Though it might just be people getting together for an all-night coding session starting their principled cab-offering rival, eh? (Anyhow, Boston comes out top, well ahead of New York, though this probably takes no account of the number of users, number of cabs, or any other relevant piece of statistical information.)


Start up: Roombas v dogs, native v web redux, Intel’s mobile loss, Samsung slims, and more


“Hatin’ on Roomba” by obloquy on Flickr

A selection of 8 links for you. Use them wisely. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. Send links, comments, etc there, or drop them at the end of the article.

Intel to combine PC and mobile chip divisions to reflect market shifts >> Computerworld

The Mobile and Communications Group, as it’s known, will be broken up. The teams that develop mobile processors will join the new client group, while the remainder, which builds modems, will be part of a new wireless R&D group.

Herman Eul, who leads the mobile group today, will oversee the move to the new structure until at least the end of the first quarter, with a new role for him to be announced after that, Mulloy said.

The reorganization comes as Intel battles to improve its position in the market for smartphones and tablets, which is dominated by chips based on designs from Arm Holdings, a UK competitor.

The Mobile and Communications Group reported an operating loss of more than US$1bn in the third quarter, in part because it’s been making payments to tablet makers to encourage them to use its chips. As a result of those and other efforts, Intel has said it aims to get its processors into 40m new tablets this year.

Ah. A good way to bury bad losses.


Samsung plans to cut smartphone models by up to 30% in 2015 >> WSJ

Here we are in November 2014:

Samsung Electronics said it would reduce the number of smartphone models it offers next year, part of a move to cut costs to combat declining profit.

The South Korean technology major said it would cut the number of models by about 25% to 30%, Robert Yi, head of investor relations, said during a presentation in New York. His remarks were confirmed by a company spokesman Tuesday.

Samsung didn’t disclose the exact number of models that would be affected by the reduction.

Yeah, so cost-cutting. But now – with thanks to Stefan Constantine – let’s revisit Nokia in April 2011:

An unnamed Nokia Executive, in an interview with the Hindustan Times, has said: “We will be launching 40 models in 2011 of which at least 30% would be smartphones.” This news isn’t exactly making us bust out the champagne because that’s right around how many models Nokia has been releasing every year for the past five years. The Finnish firm has consistently told us that they’re going to take a “more wood behind fewer arrows” approach, meaning that they’ll come out with less new models, but said models would be further refined, but we’ve yet to actually see that materialize.

“Fewer models” seems easy to say, but when your business has been about “lots of models” is hard to do.


Google’s secret NSA alliance: The terrifying deals between Silicon Valley and the security state >> Salon.com

Remember when Google’s servers were broken into by Chinese hackers at the end of 2009? Shane Harris points out that something more happened afterwards:

On the day that Google’s lawyer [David Drummond] wrote the blog post [condemning China], the NSA’s general counsel began drafting a “cooperative research and development agreement,” a legal pact that was originally devised under a 1980 law to speed up the commercial development of new technologies that are of mutual interest to companies and the government. The agreement’s purpose is to build something — a device or a technique, for instance. The participating company isn’t paid, but it can rely on the government to front the research and development costs, and it can use government personnel and facilities for the research. Each side gets to keep the products of the collaboration private until they choose to disclose them. In the end, the company has the exclusive patent rights to build whatever was designed, and the government can use any information that was generated during the collaboration.

It’s not clear what the NSA and Google built after the China hack. But a spokeswoman at the agency gave hints at the time the agreement was written. “As a general matter, as part of its information-assurance mission, NSA works with a broad range of commercial partners and research associates to ensure the availability of secure tailored solutions for Department of Defense and national security systems customers,” she said. It was the phrase “tailored solutions” that was so intriguing. That implied something custom built for the agency, so that it could perform its intelligence-gathering mission.

According to officials who were privy to the details of Google’s arrangements with the NSA, the company agreed to provide information about traffic on its networks in exchange for intelligence from the NSA about what it knew of foreign hackers. It was a quid pro quo, information for information.

Must-read. Including this:

Google’s Sergey Brin is just one of hundreds of CEOs who have been brought into the NSA’s circle of secrecy. Starting in 2008, the agency began offering executives temporary security clearances, some good for only one day, so they could sit in on classified threat briefings.

Starts slow. Goes deep, deep.


4K lens development limited by physics >> TVTechnology

Craig Johnston:

Large venue live sports production promises to be a huge market for 4K production equipment in what could be the very near future. And while there are 4K cameras aplenty, switchers that can be upgraded and a host of other 4K equipment ready to go, there’s no long focal-range, highly telephoto 4K lenses to mate with the Super 35 single-sensor cameras.
 
The motto of high quality lens makers might as well be: “Physics will fight you.”

“When we talk about a 100×1 zoom, and the 35mm sensor, 4K, we’re talking about something we don’t think is very practical today,” said Larry Thorpe, national marketing executive at Canon USA Inc. “Once you jump from 2/3-inch imagers up to something like a Super 35, you set a baseline in element sizes, so the lens by definition is going to be larger.”

Long story short, it’s going to be expensive, or perhaps just not feasible.


Samsung strikes chip deal with Apple >> Korea Times

“Apple has designated Samsung as the primary supplier of its next A-series chips powering iOS devices from 2016 as the alliance with GlobalFoundries (GF) enabled Samsung to cut off capacity risk,” a source familiar with the deal said.

The value of the deal is said to be worth “billions of dollars,” according to the sources.

Production of the APs will start early next year at Samsung’s local factory in Giheung, Gyeonggi Province, and the volume will grow as Samsung plans to use its facilities in Austin, Texas and the GF-owned factory in New York for increased output, another source said.

That will be about 80% of the application processors for iOS devices. Good for Samsung, though doesn’t really get its flywheel (make chips and screens for more profitable devices such as its own smartphones) turning.


Nokia partners with Foxconn to take on Apple with tablet device >> FT.com

Daniel Thomas:

Ramzi Haidamus, Nokia’s technology chief, said the N1 tablet would be as good as Apple’s iPad mini but cost less. He added that it was just the first consumer product that would be designed and labelled as Nokia devices.

“It’s the first of many coming – more SKUs [items for sale], more sizes, more features,” he told the Financial Times in his first interview since becoming head of Nokia’s technology division three months ago. “We will go beyond tablets for sure.”

Nokia is prohibited from making smartphones until 2016 under the terms of the sale of its handset business to Microsoft. But Mr Haidamus said that “we will be looking at going into the cell phone licensing business post-Microsoft rights”.

The N1 is the first Nokia-branded consumer device brought to market following the sale of the Lumia and Asha businesses to Microsoft. Nokia did not manufacture tablets. 
The company said it would be the first tablet operated by a “predictive engine” that gradually learnt a user’s habits and created customised shortcuts to commonly used apps, contacts and web content.

The tablet has a 7.9 inch screen, a 2.4Ghz 64-bit quad-core processor, 2GB of memory and 32GB of storage.

Foxconn also makes lots of Apple devices, and is partnering with BlackBerry too. Big ambitions. Can’t see Nokia’s tablet making much impression on the Chinese market though.


Native apps are part of the web >> Daring Fireball

John Gruber wrote the complete rejoinder (with some pointed notes about paywalls and free sites) to Christopher Mims’s “web is dying” piece from the previous roundup:

Users love apps, developers love apps — the only people who don’t love apps are pundits who don’t understand that apps aren’t really in opposition to the open Internet. They’re just superior clients to open Internet services. Instagram didn’t even have a web interface for years, but native app clients for iOS and Android didn’t lock Instagram into anything. Their back-end is just as open as it would have been if they had only had a web browser client interface. They just wouldn’t have gotten popular.

I spoke about this four years ago at O’Reilly’s Web 2.0 conference, in a talk titled “Apple and the Open Web: A Love Story”. The gist of it being that native iOS apps (and native apps for Android, Mac OS X, Windows, and everything else) aren’t in opposition to the “web”. They live on top of the web. A new layer. They are alternatives to websites that run in web browsers. They’re just better clients.

Clear thinking is easy to recognise when you see it. This is an example. Although the debate goes on: Tim Bray says on Twitter: “What @gruber says is correct, but native apps have gatekeepers, browser apps don’t. Call me old-fashioned, but that really bothers me. It doesn’t trump all the other issues, but it’s a big deal.” (The discussion continued on Twitter.)


When dogs and robots collide, somebody needs a talking to >> WSJ

This dates from 2008, but is still relevant:

To keep the peace at home, Keith Hearn had to scold his new robotic vacuum cleaner.

The trouble started when Mr. Hearn first turned on his Roomba automatic cleaner. When the device started scooting around the floor, Mr. Hearn’s dog, Argos, attacked it.

Seeking help, Mr. Hearn found an online forum dedicated to the hundred-dollar Roomba buzzing with similar stories of pet assailants. Owners were offering advice. Among the most popular: chastise the vacuum in front of the dog.

And so, with Argos looking on, Mr. Hearn shook his finger at his gadget and sternly called it “a bad Roomba.” Argos appeared to be mollified. “After that, he never tried nipping at it again,” says Mr. Hearn, a software engineer in San Carlos, Calif.

We’re only just beginning to get self-organising devices in the home, but where will pets fit into the internet of things? They have their own social structures that they believe exist.


Switch (or: what will the fourth wave of mobile carriers be like?)

Photo by Vern on Flickr

About 20 years ago, I signed up to a mobile network for the first time. It was the UK, and there was a choice of three: BT’s Cellnet, Vodafone, and a newcomer called Orange.

Orange had an advertising campaign which focussed on a number of benefits of its new system: among others, that it would bill you per-second, rather than per-minute as the longer-established pair did. (That is, if you made a call lasting 10 seconds, you would be billed just for those seconds on Orange; on the other two, you’d be billed for a minute.)

Here’s the launch video (via Benedict Evans)

Note some of the lines in this: “In the future, we won’t change what you say, just how you say it; we’ll think it’s strange that voices ever travelled down wires; no one will be tied down; the skies will be clearer because the world of communications will be wire-free”. And it ended with the fantastic tag-line “the future’s bright, the future’s Orange”, which became the punchline of many jokes – thus demonstrating how Orange embedded itself into a fast-growing market of mobile users.

I stayed happily with Orange for a long time. In 2011 I added a data bundle – 500MB per month, costing £5, on the advice of Susi Weaser (who told me, Bill Gates-style, that 500MB was enough for pretty much anybody). I moved to a SIM-only contract too – so I brought the phone, and Orange simply supplied the service. (I’m not an early adopter of most technologies; I’m generally quite price-sensitive.)

This week, I finally switched away from Orange, to a SIM-only plan on Three. There were a number of reasons:
• for the same price, Three offers me unlimited data
• for the same price, Three offers me twice as many talk minutes (not that I ever used them up on Orange, but headroom is nice)
• for the same price, I get free calls to voicemail – in the latest version of my SIM contract, Orange had begun charging voicemail calls at 35p/min, which meant that I simply stopped checking my voicemail
• for the same price, I get free calls to 0800 (freephone) numbers
• for the same price, Three offers its “Feel At Home” data roaming service, so that when you go abroad in the US and a number of European and Scandinavian and Asian countries, any data you use is treated (and priced) as though you were at home. (By contrast with Orange you had to call to get “roaming bundles” activated, which didn’t always happen, and you couldn’t set up roaming bundles for both the US and Europe at once; only one could be “active”, which meant you had to call them if you went from one to the other; and the detail of what the roaming bundles were differed between the Orange “Roaming Angel” app and the people on the phone.)
• for the same price, I’ll get 4G as and when Three rolls it out (and it already offers HSPA+, which is damn fast anyway)

As well as these factors – which have been around for years – Orange had also messed up my billing, and not fixed it when I pointed it out to them. So this week it lost not just my business, but also my daughter’s (she was on the same bill as me); when my son’s SIM-only contract expires next year, I expect I’ll move him too.

I know that there’s a minus – that Orange’s network has wider coverage than Three’s. But this is just a matter of build-out; Orange had less coverage than Vodafone or O2 when I chose it all those years ago. You can’t go higher than 100% coverage, and as it happens Three piggybacks on a lot of EE’s network anyway.

Obviously there’s a lesson of “don’t annoy the billpayer” to all this. But I think there’s a wider significance, about the difference between the offerings of those carriers.

Wave upon wave

Cellnet (which became O2) and Vodafone were the “first wave” of mobile carriers: they had a (government-established) duopoly, they charged a lot, they used the old landline model of per-minute billing, they were cosy.

The arrival of Orange – the “second wave” – shook them up. The arrival later of T-Mobile (owned by Deutsche Telekom) expanded peoples’ options dramatically. The 1999 price war between supermarkets to introduce cheap pay-as-you-go (PAYG, aka prepaid) phones expanded the user base enormously.

Three, which started in the UK in 2003, represents the “third wave” of mobile, focussed on data, even though it predated the modern smartphone by years. Part of its USP when it launched was video calling: its network was so modern, it pointed out (because it was all 3G) that you could make video calls.

Unfortunately, few people had phones that made video calling worthwhile at the time, and the whole idea seemed nonsensical. “I don’t want people to see me in a call!” people said, even though webcams were a coming (if not already pervasive) thing. The lack of data easily available to stream also meant that there wasn’t much to do with a 3G phone; remember, until 2005 there was no Google Maps, no YouTube, no Spotify, and very few phones built to do anything useful with large amounts of data. (Here’s a splendid overview of Three’s past 10 years.)

Three’s data offering set it apart from the other networks by taking data as the assumed part of our forthcoming life, just as Orange did with per-second billing. There’s a wider comparison: look at Aaron Levie of Box, who says that it’s an assumption within the company that over time, storage will cost nothing, and that bandwidth is heading the same way, so you have to build valuable services on top.

Since Three, lots of other networks have jumped onto the data bandwagon; some of the networks are pretending to disrupt themselves (particularly O2 with its MVNO offering GiffGaff).

One could argue that Three hasn’t disrupted much; that there isn’t a lot of evidence that people want what it offers. It’s the smallest of the four networks (EE – comprised of Orange and T-Mobile, which are “gradually merging” in a move that is as smooth as “gradually changing from driving on the left to the right” – Vodafone and O2).

Deeper into the data

However, look at what the other networks are doing. Orange got them to move to per-second billing. Data is becoming more easily available. And with smartphone penetration now tipping towards 80%, and demand for data going up (helped along by EE’s TV advertising for 4G), I think we’re moving towards the “fourth wave” of carriers.

To be clear, the waves were
– first wave: introduces mobile, 30 years ago
– second wave: introduces mobile-only features and capability, 20 years ago
– third wave: assumes that we will shift from voice to data, and be data-first

So what does a fourth wave mobile carrier do? What are the assumptions it is built on?

Look at the wider context.
• Smartphone prices are falling
• Smartphones are increasingly available unlocked (even, mirabile dictu, in the US) which means you can switch a phone you’ve purchased between carriers
• Buying a phone through a mobile contract is a mug’s game; the effective interest rate is far above what you’d pay on a credit card if you bought it outright
• we want data everywhere, all the time

In that sense the data scenario reminds me of the switch between dialup and broadband. Lots of dialup services flourished charging per-minute on dialup; the spread of broadband adoption drove them to the wall, mostly, and shifted the source of profit to other places entirely: the wireline suppliers, and web properties such as Google or Amazon.

A “fourth wave” carrier will have to
• accept that its customers might switch carrier at any time (either joining, or leaving)
• offer data in very large amounts compared to what went before
• consider that data-heavy offerings as come-ons won’t work to retain customers (because those customers will be able to get the same elsewhere); so free video or music offerings aren’t as tempting as with third-wave carriers
• therefore, find a different dimension in which to compete

All the carriers have been trying things in the physical world – there are cinema tickets, offerings for festivals, Wi-Fi at underground stations, subscriptions to music services, and so on. It’s hard to judge, but it’s not clear that we really want our carriers to be the providers of frou-frou extras.

For readers in the US, few of these things are yet available. Prices are high; switching costs are very high; competition is minimal; and though AT&T has had large data offerings, the extra cost is dramatic. John Legere is trying to turn T-Mobile (separate of the UK/European one) into a disruptive force, but he has his work cut out because PAYG isn’t big, while the US is, and inertia is hard to overcome. (Just look at me; I probably could have benefited from switching a couple of years ago at least.) If the US carrier market went through some upheaval, customers would surely benefit in terms of lower pricing.

The next dimension

What’s the extra dimension? If we look at the shift that happened in the dialup-to-broadband shift, it was away from clunky interaction to smooth web interaction, and the control of your own information. Customer service is an obvious way to set a service apart; having a really good web-controlled experience where you can control your account without having to hang on a line listening to endless hold music, and then struggling with VOIP calls, is the way forward. Orange/EE has tried this, though Three definitely does it better.

Is the extra dimension in faster connectivity? For a while – EE is converting customers there to pricier contracts (though I see little evidence of people changing network for it). But the tradeoff is that if the service doesn’t seem to be much extra benefit, especially compared to the price, you can lose: already there are complaints that 4G contention in cities means you don’t actually see the extra speed.

That doesn’t leave much room for differentiation or profit, does it? That though is what has happened to the mobile carrier industry: it has been commoditised piece by piece. It’s the fifth utility, alongside water, electricity, gas and broadband. The giant profits of the past aren’t coming back.

The plaintive wail heard again and again from carriers is that they don’t want to become “dumb pipes”. Unfortunately that’s their lot. This doesn’t mean there’s no way to differentiate themselves; only that they have to think in different directions from the ones they have before, and attract customers for the service they provide rather than the extras they bolt on. It shouldn’t be such a radical idea.

After all, it’s what I joined Orange for; and why, in the end, I left. The waves keep coming.

Facebook ad pranking, Samsung’s design wars, Wirelurker arrests, web: alive or dead?, and more


1952 Illustrated Food Ad. This is not targeted to you at all. Honest.

A selection of 11 links for you. Do not spray on pets. I’m on Twitter as @charlesarthur. Do ping me links, opinions, etc.

Pranking my roommate with eerily targeted Facebook ads >> My Social Sherpa

Brian Swichkow:

I don’t do anything half-assed and he knew that. So about two months later I was experimenting with different ways to use Facebook’s Custom Audience targeting and having quite a bit of success. I was using a list of about 10,000 people and getting some of the highest click-throughs I had seen in a long time. Being a fan of the Mythbusters where they believe that anything worth doing is worth overdoing – I asked myself how I could take this to the next level. I realized that stepping things up a notch was actually stepping them down a notch in this case and I asked how targeted I could make my audience. I said to myself, “What if I only had like five people in an audience? What if I only had one person in an audience? … I should test this … I should test this on my roommate.”

The amazing thing here is the cost of doing it. You’ll have to read the article. Try guessing how much first though.


Pearl: the Compact Mirror Battery Project that started on Kickstarter but ended with Indiegogo >> Daniel Chin

Pearl™: Compact Mirror + USB Rechargeable Battery Pack was originally a Kickstarter project that was supposed to run from November 10 to December 3, 2014. In less than 48 hours since the project launched, it raised over $41,000, surpassing its $30,000 funding goal.

Then all of a sudden, we were informed by Kickstarter that our project was suspended due to a DMCA copyright infringement claim. It is a ridiculous, unfounded and fraudulent claim which Kickstarter did not bother to verify with us.

The allegations in the blog post are serious. One wonders how much of this goes on and simply never surfaces. Kickstarter doesn’t come out of it looking much good.


Alleged creators of WireLurker malware arrested in China >> SecurityWeek.Com

Three individuals suspected of being involved in the creation and distribution of a recently uncovered piece of malware referred to as “WireLurker” have been arrested and charged, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Public Security said on Friday.

The suspects, identified by their surnames as Wang, Lee and Chen, were taken into custody on Thursday based on information provided to law enforcement authorities by the China-based security company Qihoo 360 Technology.

WireLurker, a threat designed to target devices running Mac OS X, iOS and Windows, was recently uncovered by Palo Alto Networks. The network security firm’s researchers identified a total of 467 malicious OS X apps which by mid-October had been downloaded by Chinese users over 350,000 times from an app store called Maiyadi. Cybercriminals distributed the threat by packaging it with popular games and applications.


Ditto creator says Samsung phones are “crammed with complexity and redundant features” >> PhoneArena

Parallel to the launch process of Ditto, the simplest notifications wearable device there is, its product designer Bob Olodort opened up about his small-time gig as a consulting designer at Samsung. He told VentureBeat that he’d pay the Korean chaebol a visit four times a year and show them “elegant, innovative phone designs” – each one “optimized to provide an ideal set of features for a […] target customer” and an example of “simplicity and elegance”. So why are our faithful Samsung phones the exact feature-stuffed opposite of this fine concept? 

Olodort has the blunt answer: “They would louse it up by putting in everything — that’s their style at Samsung. A few young Samsung engineering managers would each add their own pet features. Later, the carriers Samsung sold to would insist on another set of features. Pretty soon the phones would be crammed with complexity and redundant features.” Unsurprisingly, the simplicity-obsessed Oledorf left to do his own thing.

This is hardly news to anyone who’s tried a Samsung smartphone. It sounds much like LG’s approach to Smart TV – every manager is desperate to get their own pet project in.


What happens when pirates play a game development simulator and then go bankrupt because of piracy? >> Greenheart Games

Old (well, from April 2013) but good. Greenheart Games intentionally uploaded a cracked version of their game to torrent sites:

The cracked version is nearly identical to the real thing except for one detail… Initially we thought about telling them their copy is an illegal copy, but instead we didn’t want to pass up the unique opportunity of holding a mirror in front of them and showing them what piracy can do to game developers. So, as players spend a few hours playing and growing their own game dev company, they will start to see the following message, styled like any other in-game message:

“Boss, it seems that while many players play our new game, they steal it by downloading a cracked version rather than buying it legally. If players don’t buy the games they like, we will sooner or later go bankrupt.”

Slowly their in-game funds dwindle, and new games they create have a high chance to be pirated until their virtual game development company goes bankrupt.

The online responses are predictably hilarious as pirating players complain without irony that piracy is hurting the profitability of the pirated game they’re playing.

Apposite today with PCalc developer James Thomson noting that around 70% of the copies of his app in use on iOS are pirated. (The suggestions for how to fix that – read the tweet replies – are quite fun.)


How Apple creates leverage, and the future of Apple Pay >> stratechery by Ben Thompson

I hadn’t come across BATNA – Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement – before, which Thompson uses earlier in this piece to explain how Apple uses what it has to succeed in negotiations, and then in new spaces such as Apple Pay:

Presuming this works out as well for Apple as I expect it to, there are two key lessons to be drawn. First, all of Apple’s leverage ultimately – either directly or indirectly – stems from consumer loyalty, which itself is based on Apple’s focus on the user experience. Second, the reason why Tim Cook so confidently called out Apple Pay as a new category is that he knew it was an area where Apple could bring that leverage to bear, just as they did in music and telephony. This is in marked contrast to the Apple TV, which is still a hobby: TV remains a much stronger business that is far more resistant to disruption than most people in tech appreciate, and until Apple has a means of obtaining leverage it will only ever remain so.


Welcome to the “Million Smartphone Club” of India >> Counterpoint Technology

Looking at India’s burgeoning smartphone market in Q3 2014:

The growing need for consumers flocking to the internet using mobile phones coupled with rapidly declining average selling price (ASP) of smartphones has been the key drivers of uptake of smartphones in India. The declining smartphone ASPs is as a result of proliferation of firstly not only local brands entering a price-war but also the highly price-competitive Chinese brands such as Xiaomi or Lenovo entering the Indian market. These brands are employing cost-effective distribution strategies such as online e-commerce channels to keep the costs fairly low in order to gain price competitiveness which is a boon to consumers

India smartphone market still has a room for vendors to grow exponentially as it expands deeper beyond urban India. However going forward only the vendors need to find faster and innovative ways to reach out to the end consumer. We estimate that going forward three out of four smartphones in the country will be 3G smartphones.

The idea that American icon Motorola would effectively be saved by selling into India would have seemed weird even a couple of years ago. Now it’s a major player there.


The web is dying; apps are killing it >> Wall Street Journal

Christopher Mims:

even the Web of documents and news items could go away. Facebook has announced plans to host publishers’ work within Facebook itself, leaving the Web nothing but a curiosity, a relic haunted by hobbyists.

I think the Web was a historical accident, an anomalous instance of a powerful new technology going almost directly from a publicly funded research lab to the public. It caught existing juggernauts like Microsoft flat-footed, and it led to the kind of disruption today’s most powerful tech companies would prefer to avoid.

It isn’t that today’s kings of the app world want to quash innovation, per se. It is that in the transition to a world in which services are delivered through apps, rather than the Web, we are graduating to a system that makes innovation, serendipity and experimentation that much harder for those who build things that rely on the Internet. And today, that is pretty much everyone.

Mims’s article has come in for a lot of rejoinders and rebuttals – such as this one on Quartz. But just because an app has a web view, does that mean you’re using “the web”? The navigation idea is all different. And in the end, you almost always end up still inside the app.


Twist: A ultra-portable universal adapter for your MacBook by Oneadaptr >> Kickstarter

What is Twist?

Twist is a universal adapter with four optional USB ports designed to work with the MacBook adapter. It offers much more functions than the Apple World Travel Adapter Kit and makes charging your mobile devices much easier. 

Note that this Kickstarter isn’t live yet; I was sent the link over the weekend (but tried at once to order some). I like the idea of it. I’m hoping to get some to test, but I’d have already put my money in if that hadn’t happened. I particularly like the idea of not having to scoop up multiple plugs and cables when leaving a hotel room; and the bright yellow model would be hard to miss as you check you’ve got everything.


10 cities visualized by how cleanly their streets are laid out >> Co.Exist

Artist Steve Von Worley plots cities according to their orderliness.

One can guess, without seeing them, that younger cities (such as those in the US) will score highly because they are so new, so that they existed when horse-drawn traffic already did. London and especially Tokyo look like a mess, but you also have to consider geography – particularly height and rivers.

That said, what would a city developed now look like in these terms?


Samsung hunts next hit with internet push as phones fade >> Yahoo Finance

To demonstrate the Internet of things, the company is using its Samsung Innovation Museum, a glass-walled building across from its headquarters, about 30 miles south of Seoul. The five-story, 11,000 square-meter structure looks a bit like New York’s Guggenheim museum, painted almost entirely in white with words carved into the walls: ‘smart living’ and ‘inspiring others.’

In an open space on the second floor, booths stand side by side. Each is decorated with different interiors to show off connected life in hotels, planes, shopping malls or living rooms.

In the hotel booth, you can check in by pressing a key-patterned button on an Android smartphone without having to wait in line. Upon entering the room, the window blinds automatically roll up and the television turns on.

In the booth for home technology, lights, appliances and a robot vacuum cleaner are all connected online to mobile phone app. The idea is you can flick on the lights, warm the oven or even clean your living room from your phone before you come home. Samsung has started offering a rudimentary version of the service in Korea and will expand it globally.

This might be me being stupid, but why would you want to turn the lights on before you get home? Isn’t that what we have switches for? As to turning on the TV when you go into the room, what if you don’t want the TV on and the blinds rolled up? So many assumptions and so much effort that is more easily solved through simple human action.


Links: why Google split Inbox, BBM’s Indonesia problem?, Glass’s cloudy future, iPad Air v Nexus 9, and more

This is captioned “Planter on BBM frame”, so don’t blame me.

A selection of 9 links for you. Do not deploy near wormholes. I’m on Twitter as @charlesarthur. Do ping me links, opinions, etc.

Why did Google decide to split Inbox from Gmail? >> TechCrunch

Marat Ryndin gives an insider’s perspective:

As is the case with all Google products it was first released internally as “dogfood” to let Googlers themselves digest all the new features, or as was the case with this particular redesign, the removal of most of the advanced features.

The Gmail team did not have to wait for the reaction for long. And it wasn’t very “googly.” It caused an uproar teeming with disgust for just about every decision the Gmail product/design team made. Phrases like, “You guys just completely destroyed Gmail!” and “What are these crazy designers doing over there?!” were everywhere. From being spoken at many of Google’s cafes to every internal online forum.

Google engineers, in typical OCD engineer fashion, wrote long internal Google+ and forum posts detailing every single use case that was no longer supported, no matter how obscure. Hell hath no fury like a product team removing a feature an engineer had been using on a daily basis. Add to that the decision to turn words into icons and add white space between rows and Google engineers were ready to storm the Gmail product/design team office with torches, swords and in full knight armor (you’d be surprised how many Google engineers own that stuff).

In response, the head of the Gmail design team made a presentation entitled “You Are Not the User.” If you were not lucky enough to witness the carnage in person you could view its archived version on the internal Google+.

This is such an excellent point, so often missed by the commentariat (both above and below the line): most users aren’t power users. Though that does leave open the question of “who serves the power users, then?” I’ve often been frustrated by the over-simplicity of Gmail’s web-based filters (there’s no “send stuff with these characters direct to spam”, for instance).


WhatsApp becomes more dominant among chat apps in Indonesia >> Tech In Asia

At a Mobile Marketing Association forum event in Jakarta today, Indonesian telco XL Axiata released data that confirms WhatsApp is the most dominant chat app used by its domestic customers. Based on slides presented at the event, WhatsApp accounts for nearly 70% of its customers’ daily chat app usage, while Line accounts for 39%, WeChat clocks in at 35%, and Blackberry Messenger (BBM) holds 9%.

If this is a trend, it’s bad news for BBM – for which Indonesia has long been an important market. Then again, a Nielsen study says 79% of Indonesian smartphone users use BBM for about 23 minutes per day – well ahead both in percentage and use of WhatsApp and Line.


eBay and an email scam >> BBC News

Rory Cellan-Jones:

For several years now I have been running an annual auction of gadgets in aid of the BBC’s Children in Need appeal.

The gadgets are review units supplied by some of the big names in tech, and they fetch some good prices. This year one of the products was the new Blackberry Passport smartphone, and I was delighted to see that, after an intense bidding battle, it went for £410.

Then the winner contacted me to ask for my PayPal details and some further photos of the item. This seemed mildly curious – other winners just clicked and paid – so I had a closer look at the buyer.

He was called Tommy, gave an address in London which I couldn’t find on a map and had only joined eBay the day before making the bid. I sent him a message requesting payment but also forwarded his message to eBay to see if there were grounds for concern.

The critical element in this is email, and how hard it is to validate an email’s origin. Cellan-Jones was suspicious, but many others would not have been. And, as he points out, email programs should be smarter at spotting phishing. There’s a huge space waiting for someone to solve it.


Apple Pay gives glimpse of mainstream appeal for mobile payments >> NYTimes.com

Whole Foods, the high-end grocery chain, said it had processed more than 150,000 Apple Pay transactions. McDonald’s, which accepts Apple Pay at its 14,000 restaurants in the United States, said Apple Pay accounted for 50% of its tap-to-pay transactions. And Walgreens, the nationwide chain of drugstores, said its mobile wallet payments had doubled since Apple Pay came out.

Apple Pay is still far from a dominant payment system. But the retailers’ numbers are the first faint signs of a mainstream willingness to stray from cash and cards. Apple, analysts say, has tapped into something.

“Quite frankly, a lot of it has to do with the strength of the Apple brand and how much merchants and customers love how easy the experience is,” said Denée Carrington, an analyst with Forrester Research. “I’m not saying it’s changing the landscape overnight. But this has never happened with other mobile wallets.”

Compare and contrast the method where you present customers with a fully worked-out end-to-end solution with the following…


Google Glass future clouded as some early believers lose faith >> Reuters

Sergey Brin turned up at an event not wearing Google Glass, which Reuters points out isn’t encouraging…

coming as many developers and early Glass users are losing interest in the much-hyped, $1,500 test version of the product: a camera, processor and stamp-sized computer screen mounted to the edge of eyeglass frames. Google Inc itself has pushed back the Glass roll out to the mass market.

While Glass may find some specialized, even lucrative, uses in the workplace, its prospects of becoming a consumer hit in the near future are slim, many developers say.

Of 16 Glass app makers contacted by Reuters, nine said that they had stopped work on their projects or abandoned them, mostly because of the lack of customers or limitations of the device. Three more have switched to developing for business, leaving behind consumer projects.

It’s increasingly obvious that Glass is not a consumer mass-market product, but one that will chime with a small number of business uses.


Nexus 9 vs. iPad Air 2: A [Mostly] Subjective Comparison >> Android Police

David Ruddock:

I’ve owned an iPad Air since the original model came out last year (my first iPad), and when the Air 2 came out late last month, I dove right in and bought another. Why? My biggest issue with the original Air was speed: occasional stutters and lackluster multitasking performance (I use that in an absolute, not relative sense) were thorns in the side of an otherwise fantastic tablet. The new Air 2 plucked them effectively with the addition of a third CPU core and doubling of RAM (to 2GB).

The Nexus 9, though, has intrigued me from its earliest rumblings.

This is a fantastic piece of work: Ruddock makes it clear he’s going to be subjective, and goes right ahead and does it. It doesn’t matter if you disagree; he’s at least always got a reason for his opinion. This is what reviewing ought to be: a personal trip through an experience, not some milquetoast “objective” description of appearance or weight. (The commenters seem happy to take this on its face.)

More generally, Android Police does some great reporting on the Android ecosystem. Worth a follow.


The Smartest Bro in the Room >> San Francisco Magazine

Ellen Cushing with a long (your long read for the day) profile of Uber and founder-CEO Travis Kalanick:

At this point, Kalanick has learned enough from his public stumbles to emphasize the company’s positive impact on the world: He argues, convincingly, that Uber has reduced drunk driving, made car ownership less necessary, lowered greenhouse gas emissions, and generated tens of thousands of jobs. When he says, as he often does, that his company is “changing the way cities operate,” it’s impossible to disagree with him.

However, it’s clear that on an emotional level, he is driven by a purpose not quite as high as his handlers might hope. This is Kalanick at his essential, pragmatic core. According to Gurley, Kalanick is fond of the Valley idiom “one truth”—that is, “he’s always pushing the organization to identify the exact right answer.” He has become an avowed enemy of cabs not because of any ethical outrage over the industry’s failings, but because they’re a staggeringly inefficient way to get the “one truth” of transportation: a fast, safe, and reliable path from here to there.


The desperate struggle at the heart of the brutal Apple supply chain >> The Guardian

I looked into what Apple was trying to achieve in its deal with GT Advanced Technologies:

had the GTAT deal succeeded, Apple would have cornered the market for cheap sapphire, giving itself a notable lead over rivals such as Samsung, which boasts super-AMOLED screens that it makes and uses exclusively. Though Kyocera of Japan and the super-expensive Vertu offer sapphire screens, neither makes them in the gigantic numbers that Apple does for its iPhone.

Cornering supplies is often key for companies trying to control a market. In 2005, Apple bought up huge amounts of flash memory for its iPod Nano music player – shutting most rivals out. It demanded an exclusivity arrangement with Toshiba, maker of the 1.8in hard drive in the first iPod.

Though it doesn’t actually own any factories, Apple pours gigantic amounts of money – about $12.5bn in the past four quarters – into “plant, property and equipment”, the majority equipping its suppliers to make its products. [This quarter] It is spending about $3bn – nearly as much as chipmaker Intel, though far less than Samsung Electronics, which has factories making screens, hard drives, and memory chips as well as phones, tablets and computers.

You’ll find that suppliers to other companies don’t talk either. But Apple has a special role because it can be a kingmaker, as one supplier explained to me (see the article).


The Nexus 10, Lollipop, and the problem with big Android tablets >> Ars Technica

Andrew Cunningham:

The Nexus 10 took 10in tablets back to the “blown-up phone” version of the UI, where buttons and other UI stuff was all put in the center of the screen. This makes using a 10in tablet the same as using a 7in tablet or a phone, which is good for consistency, but in retrospect it was a big step backward for widescreen tablets. The old interface put everything at the edges of the screen where your thumbs could easily reach them. The new one often requires the pointer finger of one of your hands or some serious thumb-stretching.

If anything, Lollipop takes another step backward here. You used to be able to swipe down on the left side of the screen to see your notifications and the right side of the screen to see the Quick Settings, and now those two menus have been unified and placed right in the center of the screen. The Nexus 10 is the most comfortable to use if it’s lying flat on a table or stand and Lollipop does nothing to help you out there.

Our biggest problem is the way apps look (1) on a screen this large and (2) in landscape mode. Even Google’s first-party apps don’t make great use of this space in their Lollipop and Material Design updates. Basic building blocks like the Home and Google Now screens (we’ve installed the Google Now Launcher on our Nexus 10, though it’s not included by default) have big swaths of completely useless space to their left and right. The Settings app is mostly a big, white field with a few buttons in it.

As Cunningham also points out, Google’s apps don’t obey its own design guidelines for tablets. Reading the comments here confirms that lots of people don’t *use” Android tablets for much more than viewing video, though – so is app design a moot point?

Links: tablet woes, Samsung <3 BlackBerry, YouTube's advantage, US gov's iOS Masque warning, and more


The HTC-made Nexus 9 tablet: could be in for an interesting time this Christmas

A selection of 8 links (and one picture explanation) for you. Do not use in unventilated space. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. Send links, thoughts, etc.

BlackBerry and Samsung team up to beef up security on Samsung devices >> CNET

At an enterprise event in San Francisco on Thursday, Samsung and BlackBerry announced a partnership that couples Samsung’s Knox platform with BlackBerry’s enterprise know-how. It’s all built on BlackBerry’s upcoming BlackBerry Enterprise Services 12 platform, and aims to bolster Android security by leveraging BlackBerry’s end-to-end encryption expertise.

This seems like a strange move for BlackBerry, as executives were keen to point out: BlackBerry CEO John Chen went so far as to joke that he was torn on whether or not to wish Samsung well in the future. But the partnership makes a lot of sense: while BlackBerry’s smartphone market share has declined, the company’s reputation as an enterprise-and-security powerhouse remains strong.

Very strange – though fits into Chen’s strategy of making money from software. But selling off your USP, as this seems to be?


You can make a living from a thousand true fans — Ben Thompson is proof >> Gigaom

Mathew Ingram:

Those 1,000-plus members are paying $10 a month or $100 a year for access to what Thompson calls the Daily Update, which is a collection of several posts with his take on or analysis of topical events — such as singer Taylor Swift removing her songs from Spotify and the implications for the music industry, or the future of the Uber car service. Members can access the content online, or via email, or through a private RSS feed.

So Thompson will soon be bringing in over $100,000 from membership-based subscriptions, and has managed to get recommendations from fans like Gruber and Box CEO Aaron Levie along the way.

Well now. Ben’s extremely smart (and a friend). The former is why his subscribers stay with him. This does call into question the limits for larger publishing systems: how big do they have to be, if one can piggyback on them so effectively?


10 thoughts on YouTube Music Key >> Music Industry Blog

Mark Mulligan:

Google just announced its long anticipated YouTube Music Key. You can find out all you need to know about its potential impact on the wider market in MIDiA’s report ‘Unlocking YouTube: How YouTube Will Change Music Subscriptions’. Here are 10 further thoughts..

Ah, but you’ll have to read them. (Basically: a game-changer, but not without problems, though certainly a dramatic rival to Spotify.


Google to retire Wallet for digital purchases API, affecting third-party merchants >> Android Central

Google quietly announced today that it would shut down Google Wallet API for third-party digital goods purchases on March 2, 2015, citing a changing landscape in digital payments. Wallet will continue to function, however, for Google Play purchases. While the service for digital purchases made over the web for third-party merchants will shut down, Google Wallet will still exist and consumers will be able to make purchases for goods in physical retail stores using NFC for payments.

In a note to Internet merchants, Google stated that Google Wallet will continue to work for Google Play after the shut off date, but not for other web-based transactions.

Odd, just as Apple is expanding Apple Pay into web payments. What’s Google going to replace this with? (Especially as the number of in-store Google Wallet purchases is, well, small.)


US government warns on bug in Apple’s iOS software >> Reuters

The US government warned iPhone and iPad users on Thursday to be on the alert for hackers who may exploit a vulnerability in Apple Inc’s iOS operating system that would enable them to steal sensitive data.

There was the potential for hacks using a newly identified technique known as the “Masque Attack,” the government said in an online bulletin from the National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center and the U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Teams…

…Such attacks could be avoided if iPad and iPhone users only installed apps from Apple’s App Store or from their own organizations, it said.

So, basically, don’t do what you weren’t already doing. But this attack is surely going to be used via social engineering quite soon – links that appear to be from within an enterprise, etc.


‘Masque attack’: Don’t panic but do pay attention >> iMore

Nick Arnott:

Apple has a lot of safeguards built into iOS. A Masque attack tries to get you to circumvent those safeguards and install malicious apps anyway. In order to make a Masque attack work, an attacker has to:

• Have an iOS Developer Enterprise Program account or the universal device identifier (UDID) for the device they want to target.
• Make a malicious app that looks like a popular, existing app. (A fake Gmail app that simply loads the Gmail website in FireEye’s example.)
• Get you to download their fake app from outside the App Store. (For example, by sending you an email with a link in it.)
• Get you to agree to the iOS popup that warns you the app you’re trying to install is from an untrusted source.

Getting a device’s UDID is non-trivial and this approach would limit how many devices could be targeted. For this reason, attackers try to get iOS Developer Enterprise Program accounts instead.


Outlook grim for US consumer tablet market as holidays draw near >> LA Times

The US tablet market posted an 8% decline in revenue during the back-to-school season, leaving the once-thriving product category in a tough spot as the holidays draw near. 

The number of tablets sold during that period rose 3.5% compared to last year, suggesting shoppers were more interested in cheaper tablets, according to market research company The NPD Group.  

The bad news has continued into the fall. Over the last eight weeks, tablet unit sales declined 16% and revenue dropped 18%.

Tablet unit sales declined across operating systems – both Android and iOS unit sales sank 16%. While Windows’ unit sales dropped 23%, revenue increased 11% compared to this period in 2013, due to the success of the $799 Surface Pro 3, one of the most expensive tablets on the market. 

“The slowdown has been pervasive, and even the launch of the new iPads at the end of this period has not served to reignite sales growth,” said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis at The NPD Group. “With the holidays fast approaching, the potential for a positive tablet sales season appears grim.”

Android tablet sales took the hardest hit during the last eight weeks as the market for small-screen products waned. Android’s 7in tablet saw unit sales decline 40%. The figures reflect what analysts have expected as the number of large smartphones, such as the iPhone 6 Plus, increases.

iPad sales in total (worldwide) fell 13%, and revenue by 15% (ie, the average selling price declined slightly). The drop in Windows tablet sales won’t please those who reckon the Surface Pro 3 is setting the world alight; the problem is that last year, tehre was a fire sale on Surface RTs.


Xiaomi: just a hardware company? >> Tech.pinions

Ben Bajarin:

Ultimately however, I believe Xiaomi is still laying the critical groundwork to be the internet services company they desire to be. Being in the hardware business alone is not a sustainable business for many global OEMs. I have spoken with several high-up execs at Xiaomi and was told that, as of late 2014, they are generating around $21m in revenue from their app stores (game app store, mobile app store, and books app store). Which means it is likely 2014 profits should have quite a bit more balance between hardware and services. Xiaomi is on pace to again increase handset shipments ~200% — yet the WSJ report only estimated a 75% increase in profits this year. The curious variable of why profits are not more closely matching explosive YoY handset shipments is a concerning element of the overall Xiaomi story.

Xiaomi is definitely the most intriguing of the Chinese companies because it manages its supply chain so differently. But on the services side, if it installs Google Play outside China, how does it preserve the profit margin extra that services yield?


Thanks to Duncan Sinclair who pointed out that the artist of yesterday’s picture is Karl Jilg, commissioned by Vägverket.

Here it is again…

Links: EC v Google, iPad Air GPU, forget Shingy!, should (could?) AOL buy Yahoo, Samsung v NVidia and more

A selection of 10 links (and one picture) for you. Proceed with caution. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter.

Chris Bruntlett on Twitter: “Brilliant depiction of the sad state of walking in our cities. (Artist unknown, via Daniel Sauter at #2WalkAndCycle)


Artist unknown. (Let us know if you know.)


Samsung’s new Smart TV development platform runs on Tizen >> TechCrunch

Samsung is hoping to make it easier for developers to build apps for its smart TV devices. As part of that effort, the consumer electronics giant has decided to enable developers to leverage the Tizen operating system to do so.

Good luck with that one. Not that anyone will notice either way.


European antitrust regulators to hold discussions with Google’s rivals >> NYTimes.com

James Kanter:

European antitrust regulators will hold discussions with the companies most concerned by Google’s business practices before deepening existing investigations or resolving them, the new competition commissioner for the European Union said Tuesday.

Google has faced an increasing barrage of criticism in Europe, where there is widespread concern about how United States technological dominance could affect personal privacy and the ability of European rivals to compete effectively.

“I need to know what those most directly affected by the practices in question have to say,” Margrethe Vestager, the new commissioner, said in a statement after a question about Google earlier in the day from a member of the European Parliament. “I will therefore need some time to decide on the next steps.”

Vestager clearly isn’t going to be rushed into anything; but given that her predecessor tried and failed at amelioration, she isn’t likely to follow the same path.


Apple A8X’s GPU – GXA6850, even better than I thought >> AnandTech

Ryan Smith:

Working on analyzing various Apple SoCs over the years has become a process of delightful frustration. Apple’s SoC development is consistently on the cutting edge, so it’s always great to see something new, but Apple has also developed a love for curveballs. Coupled with their infamous secrecy and general lack of willingness to talk about the fine technical details of some of their products, it’s easy to see how well Apple’s SoCs perform but it is a lot harder to figure out why this is…

…as we have theorized and since checked with other sources, GFXBench 3.0’s fillrate test is not bandwidth limited in the same way, at least not on Apple’s most recent SoCs. Quite possibly due to the 4MB of SRAM that is A7/A8/A8X’s L3 cache, this is a relatively “pure” test of pixel fillrate, meaning we can safely rule out any other effects.

With this in mind, normally Apple has a strong preference for wide-and-slow architectures in their GPUs. High clockspeeds require higher voltages, so going wide and staying with lower clockspeeds allows Apple to conserve power at the cost of some die space. This is the basic principle behind Cyclone and it has been the principle in Apple’s GPU choices as well. Given this, one could reasonably argue that A8X was using an 8 cluster design, but even with this data we were not entirely sure.

GPUs are the new frontier for computing improvement. Equally, the niche-ness of this article is amazing.


Apple’s Mac resilience in a mobile world >> Above Avalon

Neil Cybart:

A curious thing happened to Apple last quarter: Seven years after launching the iPhone and four years after launching the iPad, Apple reported the best sales quarter ever for Mac. The belief that Apple would never sell as many Macs as it did during the first quarter of 2012 (known as “Peak Mac”) was busted.  Tim Cook and Apple are as bullish as ever on Mac. I don’t think it’s a stretch to theorize that Mac’s resilience is born from the phones and tablets that many assumed would make the Mac irrelevant. As mobile devices continue to invade our culture, the Mac may find an attractive computing niche thanks to its special use cases and design.

Cybart was until earlier this week better known on Twitter as @SammyWalrusIV; he was a Wall Street analyst (though not of Apple) who, via his Twitter persona, commented on Apple. Now he’s starting a sideline – or mainline? – in Apple analysis. (You can subscribe on his page.)

Yet another amazing thing about Apple is that it can generate so many people who focus so intently on what it does – and are rewarded with readers.


Forget Shingy. ‘Digital prophets’ only sell optimism to a terrified tech industry >> The Guardian

Jess Zimmerman:

Today’s big joke is tomorrow’s irreplaceable utility – ask anyone who scoffed at Twitter as a mere engine for broadcasting what you ate for lunch. And of course, today’s massive, secretive, world-changing project is tomorrow’s Segway.

Consistently, the only people who end up being right about the future are the ones shouting warnings at us not to repeat the past – and who, of course, are roundly ignored. These Cassandras could have told you about Snapchats not being as secret as you thought, or hotel Wi-Fi being vulnerable to attack, or Facebook’s troubling real-name policy. In fact, they were telling you, but you weren’t listening.

And if you’re AOL, you couldn’t be bothered to listen because you were following a prophet of your own. He was offering an optimistic, if confusing, future. He wasn’t a Cassandra. And, well, there are only two kinds.


Mozilla re-negotiates Google multi-million dollar sugar-daddy deal >> The Register

The Firefox browser-maker is in talks with Google to extend an agreement that has funnelled millions of Mountain View dollars into the not-for-profit web idealist shop, The Reg has learned.

Hardly surprising – the three-year contract length and expiry date is known. I’m certain that no matter what price Mozilla demands (it presently gets about 90% of its revenue from Google kickbacks on searches), Google will pay it.

Why? Because the cost of losing 20% of the desktop to Microsoft search at once is far greater than the odd millions it shovels Mozilla’s way. Remember, Google’s voting shareholders are inside its boardroom. The rest are just along for the ride.


Exclusive: Some unhappy Yahoo investors asking AOL for rescue >> Reuters

At least two top-10 Yahoo shareholders are so unhappy with Chief Executive Marissa Mayer’s turnaround efforts that they are making a direct plea to AOL CEO Tim Armstrong to explore a merger and run the combined company.

Their move follows an activist campaign by hedge fund Starboard Value LP, which is pushing Yahoo to consider a deal with AOL and unlock Yahoo’s valuable stakes in Asian Web companies.

Armstrong has been receptive to these Yahoo shareholders and acknowledged the potential benefits of a deal, the Yahoo investors said.

But he has downplayed the possibility of a transaction, according to the investors and two sources close to AOL. There are no talks between the two companies and Armstrong has indicated he would only consider a friendly deal, the investors said.

This is slightly reminiscent of “two bald men fighting over a comb while falling out of a plane with only one parachute”. Activist investors are terrible judges of which mergers will work, generally.

And yet… AOL and Yahoo are both ad-focussed, and if they could make the merger work it could be effective. Pity that this is a merger that could have worked in 2004, before mobile. Now? Facebook and Twitter are eating both companies’ lunches.


Samsung sues Nvidia for faking benchmarks comparing the Tegra K1 to the Exynos 5433 >> SamMobile

The Tegra K1 has been touted by Nvidia to be a “desktop-class” SoC, so powerful that it’s only meant for tablets (though nothing is stopping a manufacturer from using it on a phone.) However, Samsung is now alleging that the Tegra K1 is not as powerful as those benchmark scores indicate, and has sued Nvidia for misleading consumers in benchmark figures that compare the SHIELD Tablet with the Galaxy Note 4.

The suit is, in fact, a countersuit against Nvidia’s lawsuit against Samsung earlier this year that said the latter had infringed on some of Nvidia’s graphics-related patents in its mobile chips (which has caused the US ITC to investigate some Samsung devices.) Samsung’s lawsuit against the popular GPU manufacturer alleges that Nvidia also used six Samsung patents without licensing them; Samsung is also suing Velocity Micro, a company that uses Nvidia’s graphics cards and hence is being accused of using two of the Korean manufacturers.

1) I’m shocked, shocked that people might seek ways to fiddle benchmarks (2) does anyone with any sense actually care about benchmarks on mobile processors, when some companies tie boat anchors around them by skinning Android?


Trojan SMS found on Google Play >> Malwarebytes Unpacked

The Trojan tricks its victims by requesting permission to send premium SMS messages in exchange for downloaded content.

This tactic has been seen since malware started appearing on Android devices.  If you visit the developer’s website from the link provided on the Google Play page, it takes you to a page with two banners and a couple of links.

Remember when Trojan diallers were a thing during the dialup internet days? They were viruses that silently changed the number your modem dialled (ask your parents, kids, and they’ll sing it to you) to one in a far-off land. People lost hundreds of pounds, yet British Telecom wouldn’t do anything. This is much the same model.

Trojan diallers died when people moved to broadband. I wonder if Trojan SMS is a similar early-stage thing.


Here’s one theory for why Samsung profits are getting demolished >> Business Insider

Jim Kovach:

Part of the reason why scrappy startups like Chinese smartphone makers OnePlus and Xiaomi are able sell their phones at rock-bottom prices and eat into Samsung’s sales is because they spend little on marketing and sell directly to consumers through the web. 

These companies rely mostly on social media and word of mouth to market their products. And it works. For example, Xiaomi sells more phones in China than both Apple and Samsung. OnePlus, which has only sold its smartphone in limited preorders, has sold at least 500,000 phones, with thousands clamoring for an opportunity to buy more.

But it’s probably not a model Samsung will be able to follow any time soon.

Carl Pei, a cofounder at OnePlus and the company’s global director, said Samsung’s marketing costs and protection of its margins make that nearly impossible.

Selling phones through flash sales and online-only might not scale very well; and it doesn’t satisfy the “walk into a store and buy” desire. Yet it looks like a promising model. (Of note: Apple offers online-only, own-store and carrier store models.)

Links: why Taylor Swift really sold 1m, Android user tries an iPad Air 2, robot AI risks?, what slowed Samsung’s metal phones, and more


“And here’s a song I wrote about social media…”
Taylor Swift at the O2. Photo by Tom O’Donoghue

A selection of 9 links for you. Keep out of reach of children. (This is life advice.)

artificial intelligence is a tool, not a threat >> Rethink Robotics

Rodney Brooks:

I think it is a mistake to be worrying about us developing malevolent AI anytime in the next few hundred years. I think the worry stems from a fundamental error in not distinguishing the difference between the very real recent advances in a particular aspect of AI, and the enormity and complexity of building sentient volitional intelligence. Recent advances in deep machine learning let us teach our machines things like how to distinguish classes of inputs and to fit curves to time data. This lets our machines “know” whether an image is that of a cat or not, or to “know” what is about to fail as the temperature increases in a particular sensor inside a jet engine. But this is only part of being intelligent, and Moore’s Law applied to this very real technical advance will not by itself bring about human level or super human level intelligence. While deep learning may come up with a category of things appearing in videos that correlates with cats, it doesn’t help very much at all in “knowing” what catness is, as distinct from dogness, nor that those concepts are much more similar to each other than to salamanderness. 


My (lengthy) review of the iPad Air 2 after 2 weeks of use as someone who mainly uses Android >> apple Reddit

I own an HTC One M7, previously owned an S2, I owned a Note 10.1 2014 edition tablet for 4 months before reselling it, and I tried out a Nexus 7 2013 for 2 weeks before returning it since I felt it was too small. I picked up the iPad Air 2 because I have generally enjoyed using my mom’s iPad in the past and considering the specs and form factor I was excited to try it.

This is a great review – honest, thoughtful, and a fresh perspective. And the comments too, which don’t take sides, aren’t point-scoring, aren’t snide. Perhaps because they don’t think of them as comments?


Here’s why the Samsung Galaxy A3 and A5 were leaked so often but announced very late >> SamMobile

Well, being Samsung’s first attempt at making smartphones with full metal bodies (ones that take away the traditional Samsung feature of removable batteries), the company was met with low production yields while manufacturing the metal casings. According to our source, the casings did not meet the quality requirements Samsung was aiming for, and only around 50 percent of the yield came out right. Samsung is a big company with a lot of resources, but it’s not that surprising that they had problems with making full metal devices as the company’s usual production lines have always been geared at making mostly fully plastic smartphone shells, and since very recently, those with metal on the sides.

The low yield is also a reason why the Galaxy A3 and A5 will initially be launched only in Asia – there are simply not enough units to go around, and given the popularity of low-cost devices in the Asian region, it’s the region where Samsung is focusing on in the beginning.

Never thought of “low yield” being something that affected metal shaping before. Also, gotta love “traditional” Samsung feature of replaceable batteries.


BlackBerry CEO sees fewer new devices, focus on profitability >> Reuters

“Once we turn this company to profitability again, I will do everything I can to never lose money ever again,” Chen told Reuters in an interview this week. “That is definitely something I am very focused on doing.”

The Hong Kong-born executive, 59, made his name at Sybase, a struggling database software firm that he rescued and sold a decade later to SAP for $5.8bb in 2010.

“If you look at my track record at Sybase, I think we made money for some 60 quarters in a row, even when the dotcom bubble blew up we were profitable. I like that philosophy,” said Chen, who added he believes the worst is now behind BlackBerry.

“We will survive as a company and now I am rather confident,” he said. “We’re managing the supply chain, we are managing inventories, we are managing cash, and we have expenses now at a number that is very manageable. BlackBerry has survived; now we have to start looking at growth.”…

…Morningstar analyst Brian Colello said: “Overall we think John is doing a solid job, but our concern continues to be: how will BlackBerry drive demand for its product. The demand side of the equation is still a concern, both around selling millions of devices each year and converting enterprise software users into paying buyers in a very competitive market.”

Chen has done an amazing job, yet even he hasn’t quite got BlackBerry out of the woods yet. Still, a year ago there were doubts the company would be here now.


Exclusive: Taylor Swift on being pop’s instantly platinum wonder… and why she’s paddling against the streams >> Yahoo Music

Chris Willman spoke to Swift, who described this element of her social media “strategy”:

And the thing with me posting pictures on Twitter of my fans holding the albums, that was an idea I had five minutes before I did it for the first time. On Tumblr they’ve been joking for months about how I’m always just lurking around the Internet, stalking their blogs. Predominantly, for the most part, most of these ideas were not thought of in some conference-room marketing meeting.

People always talk to you about marriages and relationships, and they say relationships take work, and you have to keep surprising each other. And that I think the most profound relationship I’ve ever had has been with my fans. That relationship takes work, and you have to continue to think of new ways to delight and surprise them. You can’t just assume that because they liked one of your albums, they’re going to like the new one, so you can make it exactly the same as you made the last one. You can’t just assume that because they were gracious enough to make you a part of their life last year, that they’re gonna want to do the same thing this year. I think that core relationship needs to be nurtured.

This is why she sold a million albums – not because she pulled it from Spotify. She’s using social media to get personal with her millions of fans.


Uber and its shady partners are pushing drivers into subprime loans >> Gawker

Nitisha Tiku:

The subprime lending market that plunged America into the Great Recession is back and as unscrupulous as ever. Instead of mortgages, this time a bubble has formed around auto loans, and reliably ruthless Uber is in the thick of it. Two “partners” in Uber’s vehicle financing program are under federal investigation, but Uber hasn’t slowed its aggressive marketing campaign to get drivers with bad credit to sign up for loans.

Regulators started looking at subprime auto lending this summer: General Motors and Santander Consumer USA—both partners in Uber’s vehicle financing service—received subpoenas from the Department of Justice in August…

…Here’s how Uber fits into all of this. The company’s financing program connects drivers with poor credit to auto lenders and dealers, promising better rates. Uber does not finance the loans itself. Rather, Uber introduces drivers to partners like General Motors, Toyota, “and several unnamed financial institutions.” Why? The startup wants drivers with nicer cars, but it badly needs more drivers overall to meet demand and feed its growth spurt. Human drivers aren’t as easy to scale as servers, causing competition between rivals like Lyft and Sidecar.

Terrific journalism by Tiku, refusing to be fobbed off by roundabout phraseology. This is what technology writing should be about – not just regurgitating press releases. (Though the headline would work just as well – perhaps better – without “shady”.)


This device diagnoses hundreds of diseases using a single drop of blood >> WIRED

Davey Alba:

One small drop of blood is dropped into a small receptacle, where nanostrips and reagents react to the blood’s contents. The whole cocktail then goes through a spiral micro-mixer and is streamed past lasers that use variations in light intensity and scattering to come up with a diagnosis, from flu to a more serious illness such as pneumonia—or even Ebola—within a few minutes. There’s also a vitals patch that users can wear to get continuous health readings—EKG, heart rate, body temperature—delivered to their smartphone or the rHEALTH device itself via a Bluetooth link. An app called CHAS (Comprehensive Health Assessment Unit) can walk the user through the process of self-diagnosis.

The real innovation of rHEALTH, according to Chan, is in getting all the diagnostics technologies packed together into one handheld device. By shrinking its components so much compared to traditional devices, Chan says, patients will need to give 1,500 times less blood than they would for regular tests.

It’s a portable handheld device. I do wonder if it could diagnose pneumonia (bacterial lung infection) from blood, though. But a huge step forward for non-expert diagnosis.


Amazon has knocked Tesco off the entertainment sales top spot >> Management Today

If Tesco’s embattled chief exec Dave Lewis was hoping that a Christmas rush for the latest Xbox hit would do anything to improve the supermarket’s fortunes, he might want to think again. Amazon is now the UK’s biggest seller of films, games and music after its market share jumped to 22.5% from 17.6% a year ago – knocking Tesco from the top spot.

Supermarkets have all suffered this year as more and more consumers armed with smartphones and tablets have headed online. Tesco’s share fell the most – from 20.6% in the three months to September last year to 15.1% for the same period last year, according to Kantar Worldpanel. Asda’s fell from 14.4% to 11%, Sainsbury’s fell from 7.9% to 7.2% and Morrison’s from 3.4% to 3.2%.

Is this one of those “he went bankrupt slowly, and then quickly” stories? (Note that it’s entertainment, and only content at that, not hardware.)


A tablet world away: Where Samsung and Apple lose out to brands you’ve never heard of >> ZDNet

Andrada Fiscutean:

Romanian brands’ marketing strategy is straightforward. “The tendency is to offer the lowest possible price and to launch new tablets every quarter,” the IDC analyst says. “The consumer market is focused on price and this is why local brands retain an important market share.”

The three local companies, who put their names on white label Chinese products, have helped the tablet became available to the masses in Romania. They offer mainly Android devices at an average price of $135, according to IDC, while their most affordable tablets are less than $60, a price Apple or Samsung cannot, or will not, compete with.

Romanians would have to work for three weeks to be able to afford the cheapest iPad, sold through official channels this October at around $375. The average monthly pay in the country was $486 in August, according to The National Institute of Statistics.

“Our mission always was to allow all Romanians access to technology, regardless of their budget,” Alexandru Dragoiu, CEO at E-Boda, told ZDNet. “Our public includes consumers living in large cities, as well as in towns and rural areas, who have limited budget and don’t need the highest possible specs.” The company is focused on selling 7in to 7.85in Android tablets at prices ranging between $70 and $230…

…Sociologist Marian-Gabriel Hancean, lecturer at the University of Bucharest, believes the rise of the local brands is not an effect of a romantic tendency to support Romanian products, but rather a pragmatic choice dictated by costs. “Their success has nothing to do with some sort of highly-developed patriotism,” he says. “Before the recession, bank loans generated a significant increase in the purchases of foreign products. I doubt people became patriots in such a short period of time.”