
Climate change is taking rice-growing areas above the temperature at which it will grow, but and evolution isn’t keeping pace. CC-licensed photo by Toshiyuki IMAI on Flickr.
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A selection of 10 links for you. Chopsticks. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. On Bluesky: @charlesarthur.bsky.social. Observations and links welcome.
Could AI be a “worthy successor” to humanity? • Vox
Sigal Samuel:
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AI successionism has been gaining ground among technologists over the past decade. In 2015, Google co-founder Larry Page famously accused Elon Musk of “speciesism” because Page thought we should let digital minds take over, and Musk disagreed.
The successionist vision has been amplified by the advent of effective accelerationism (e/acc) in 2022. Its founder, Guillaume Verdon — the physicist more colorfully known on X as Based Beff Jezos — describes e/acc as a “meta-religion” that’s about “having faith” in the universe’s drive toward increasingly intelligent systems. The best thing we can do is help the universe by developing advanced AI as fast as possible, even at the expense of humanity. “E/acc,” as Verdon has written, “has no particular allegiance to the biological substrate.”
Tech heavyweights have come on board. Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen listed e/acc thinkers as his “patron saints.” Garry Tan, the CEO of tech startup accelerator Y Combinator, included “e/acc” in his social media bio and invested in Verdon’s company, which aims to build the world’s most efficient computers. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted on X to Verdon, saying, “you cannot outaccelerate me.”
And these days, AI successionism is spreading beyond Silicon Valley. At the New York symposium, Faggella told the audience that trying to preserve the human species as it is would be silly.
“We could ask the questions that would tie all of our moral aspirations eternally to 23 chromosomes — or we could ask the cosmic questions,” Faggella said.
He wanted us to consider “unpolite, uncouth” possibilities, starting with: The flame of consciousness — the capacity for experience and moral value — may be the rarest and most precious thing in the universe. Humanity is currently a torch carrying that flame, but what if we’re ultimately not the best carrier for it? And if AI can spread that flame far further than we mere humans can, generating experiences of bliss and forms of moral value that we could never even dream of, shouldn’t we let it?
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Samuel has a lovely explanation for “Why I wrote this story”:
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“I grew up hearing an old Jewish teaching: Each of us should carry two slips of paper, one in each pocket. One says, “I am but dust and ashes.” But the other says, “The world was created for me.”
Reporting on AI these past few years, I’ve watched more and more people forget the second message.”
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Optimization culture is making us fragile • Brad Stulberg
Brad Stulberg:
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A popular podcaster recently said drinking a few glasses of wine “ruined the next three days of his life.”
He specified he “didn’t get drunk,” but “got worse sleep that night” and said that when he looked at his wrist-worn device it messed up his score and “dopamine system or whatever, the cortisol” and he podcasted worse as a result.
Y’all—this optimization stuff can make you super fragile.
Before I go any further, an important disclaimer: alcohol is not good for you, especially if you are someone who struggles to stop after a drink or two. If you have a substance-use disorder or family history of substance-use disorders then a few drinks can absolutely ruin your week (or worse). There is nothing wrong with choosing to abstain for any reason at all. And yes, of course, getting drunk can derail a day or two.
But that’s not what this post is about.
Rather, it’s the latest example in a long line of internet optimization culture: eat this way, sleep that way, wake at this time, do that single exercise, follow this guru, take that supplement… This content is more about the performance of being great than the actual pursuit of greatness itself. It can even lead to anxiety.
Here’s what’s at the root of optimization culture: life is uncertain, scary, and hard. There’s always a chance of illness, injury, or failure. It’s normal to have some level of anxiety, but trying to control every little thing doesn’t help. If anything it gets in the way. When you obsess over readiness scores and other data, you risk creating a fragility mindset. You start to believe that you must be and feel 100% to do great work. But this is nonsense. It’s not how life works.
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It’s weird that this has to be said at all, but apparently so. Also, if three glasses of wine mess you up, your liver needs checking.
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Who benefits from the casino economy? • Semafor
Liz Hoffman:
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Looking around at our casino economy, I keep asking: Who is all this for?
The long tail of nonsense bets on prediction markets can’t possibly be what Dwight Eisenhower had in mind when he endorsed the “people’s capitalism” put forward by America’s greatest Cold War propagandist, Theodore Repplier. The future of commerce can’t be a prediction market for whether someone will deliver me four kiwis. The future of investing can’t be crypto perps and a series of rolling bets on Nvidia stock that expire every midnight in a white-knuckled Groundhog Day portfolio.
These products confuse populist capitalism, the urge to beat the elite at their own game, with Repplier’s people’s capitalism, where access is broad, affordable, and fair. Robinhood is on a mission to “democratize finance for all.” The mutual fund did that 100 years ago. Index funds perfected it 50 years later. Trump Accounts — which launch today — could expand it now. A fund that charges fees seven times higher than an S&P 500 index fund for 200% exposure to a nuclear-reactor company with zero revenue is something else entirely.
At their most benign, these products are the Dubai Chocolate of markets. They were nowhere, are suddenly everywhere, and are a fun novelty but nothing we couldn’t actually live without. At their most pernicious, they are financial poison.
The head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was right when he said that prediction markets can perform “useful functions for society… to hedge commercial risks like increases in temperature.” But he was wrong that the ideal users are “everyday Americans.”
In theory, it makes sense to offset your heating bill by correctly predicting a cold snap on Kalshi. But a better route to that outcome would be for your electric utility to do that hedging itself and share those savings with you. This already happens: The option that utilities offer to smooth out your monthly bill is made possible by an old prediction market — electricity futures, around and regulated since the 1990s — and doesn’t require furiously gambling on your phone.
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Will people stop using prediction markets once they realise that it’s enormously biased against “fair” players? Perhaps it’s the same forlorn hope as wishing people won’t do sports gambling. (Though at least sports gambling isn’t fixed.)
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Exclusive: Pentagon says US military personnel are reportedly being targeted using location data • Reuters
Raphael Satter:
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U.S. forces deployed to war zones have been targeted using commercially available location data, according to reports fielded by military officials, an illustration of how the global surveillance economy is shaping the battlefield.
In a letter shared with Reuters by US Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, US Central Command said it had “received multiple threat reports concerning adversary exploitation of commercial location data to target or surveil US personnel in theater.” The message, sent on April 14, offered no further specifics, but Centcom’s area of responsibility includes the Gulf, where US forces are facing off against the Iranian military over the Strait of Hormuz.
The disclosure was the first official confirmation that US forces had been targeted in an active war zone, Wyden and a bipartisan group of legislators said in a letter sent on Thursday, opens new tab to the Pentagon.
“Commercial location data can be used to identify where US troops congregate and their pattern of life, which can be exploited by adversaries to target attacks such as missiles, drones, and roadside bombs, as well as for counterintelligence purposes,” the letter warned. Wyden said in a statement that it was time to “start treating the adtech industry as a national security threat.”
The Pentagon did not return messages seeking comment. The lawmakers said in their letter that their efforts to obtain more information from military officials about the reported targeting had been unsuccessful.
Location data is widely used in digital advertising, which is a key source of revenue for many tech companies. Such data is typically collected from smartphones or other devices by apps or service providers before being sold to data brokers who collate and resell the data, sometimes via complex networks of intermediaries.
Although the threat to privacy inherent in selling the details of people’s day-to-day movements on the open market has long been a matter of public discussion, its potential as a national security risk has recently drawn concern as well.
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Finally, the US’s lack of privacy laws begins to bite in the most meaningful way. “Your privacy is valuable to us”, indeed.
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Apple working on iPhone anti-snatching feature that locks the device automatically • 9to5Mac
Marcus Mendes:
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Many of us know the feeling: one second you’re looking at your iPhone, and the next, you’re staring at an empty hand. By the time you realize what happened, whoever took the device is already out of reach.
Over the years, Apple has greatly improved iPhone anti-theft protections, with features such as Find My, Activation Lock, and Stolen Device Protection.
However, many of those protections can be rendered nearly useless if a thief grabs the device while it is still unlocked.
Apple does include time-based security delays to prevent major Apple ID changes, but the reality is that a thief can still cause significant damage once they get their hands on an unlocked iPhone.That is why Apple is working on a new feature that automatically locks the iPhone when the system detects it has been snatched from the user’s hand, similar to Android’s Theft Detection Lock.
These systems will rely on several signals, including the iPhone’s accelerometer, to detect when the device has been snatched from the user’s hand. Once the snatching is confirmed, it will automatically lock the iPhone.
To further determine whether the iPhone may have been taken from its owner, the feature will also observe the distance from a paired Apple Watch.
Additionally, once fully implemented and enabled, the feature will take into account the same rules that apply to Stolen Device Protection: whether the iPhone is connected to a familiar WiFi network, and whether it is at a familiar location, such as home or work.
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This is definitely a smart idea, and overdue. Android’s Theft Detection Lock, which does essentially precisely that, began rolling out in August 2024.
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Think it’s hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says • NBC News
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In the next five years, the Earth is overwhelmingly likely to surge again and again past the international climate threshold set as safe and shatter its hottest-year record along the way, according to new United Nations climate projections.
The World Meteorological Organization also forecasts an overheating Arctic that warms nearly 3º Fahrenheit (1.66ºC) between now and 2030 and a dangerous drought with potential wildfires for the Amazon, a crucial part of Earth’s natural defenses to lessen human-caused climate change. A hotter globe from the burning of coal, oil and gas means more extreme weather including floods, droughts and heat waves, scientists said.
The projections by the UN climate agency and the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office said there’s a 75% chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5ºC (2.7ºF) higher than since pre-industrial times. That threshold is the agreed-upon limit of warming — averaged over 20 years — set in 2015 by the Paris climate agreement.
A UN science report a few years later detailed how exceeding that 1.5º mark means more likely death, danger and species loss. Even though it’s only a few tenths of a degree, some of the planet’s ecosystems, such as coral and glaciers, can’t handle the strain.
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It’s all bad, to be honest.
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The planet may become too hot for rice to be cultivated in many areas it currently exists • Live Science
Stephanie Pappas:
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Climate change is pushing rice-growing regions into temperatures beyond those at which rice has been cultivated in the past 9,000 years of human history, new research finds.
Research suggests that warming is proceeding 5,000 times faster than rice has ever evolved.
This means rice may be reaching its “thermal limit,” the point at which it can’t easily adapt to rising temperatures. Although people can breed more heat-resistant strains or move rice cultivation into new regions, future warming is likely to cause serious disruption for the billion people who depend on rice cultivation for their livelihoods, said study first author Nicolas Gauthier, an anthropologist and geographer at the Florida Museum of Natural History.
“We don’t want to downweight the flexibility of human adaptation,” he told Live Science. “But we also want to acknowledge that these adaptations have already occurred, and in some cases, we might be closer to the limits of what we can reasonably adapt to in that time frame.”
Rice is a staple crop for over half of the world’s population, and 90% of cultivation occurs in Asia. Some rice-growing regions are already being hit by severe warming, which is affecting rice yields, according to the World Economic Forum.
Although rice is a heat-loving crop, rice photosynthesis shuts down at around 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius), and too much heat can also affect pollen viability and grain growth. Rice is also a water-intensive crop, so shifts in the wet and dry seasons are a problem, as is sea-level rise because low-lying paddies may become inundated with salt water, which can kill the crop.
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How the plastic bottle cap became a parable for the value of EU regulation • The Guardian
Alberto Alemanno:
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In July 2024, a European Union law came into force requiring plastic bottle caps to remain attached to their bottles. The regulation was widely mocked by social-media jokesters and Silicon Valley billionaires alike. This, people said, was Brussels at its worst: bureaucrats micromanaging, treating citizens like children who couldn’t be trusted to recycle a cap.
What went almost entirely unreported was the evidence behind it. Plastic bottle caps have been identified, across decades of coastal cleanup data, as among the top items found littering European beaches. Small, light and made from a different plastic than the bottle itself, the caps float independently once separated, travelling far longer distances than the bottles they came from. They are far more likely to be swallowed by seabirds, fish and marine turtles who mistake them for food.
Now consider what happened next. After lobbying against the rule, some of the world’s largest beverage companies redesigned their caps and adapted. But companies such as Coca-Cola also did something revealing: while they trumpeted the design of the new caps as a sign of their unwavering commitment to sustainability, they maintained the detachable ones virtually everywhere else. Not because the physics of plastic pollution differ across continents, but because no other country, be it the US or in Asia, has passed a national law requiring the change.
The bottle cap story is a parable for a larger fight playing out at the highest levels of European politics. One side claims that EU rules are the problem: a self-imposed burden of standards on business that slow Europe down while the US and China race ahead. The other says those rules are not a handicap but a source of power, the only instrument a continent without a single government possesses to shape its own economic future while protecting its people and the planet.
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The EU does make progress on some fronts – telling companies to standardise on USB-C for charging, for example, which means dramatically less electronic waste because fewer chargers have to be made. (Thanks Gregory B for the link.)
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The AI bubble is getting a lot bubblier, folks • Garbage Day
Ryan Broderick:
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What caused the dot com bubble to finally pop was speculation and over-spending. Buying up catchy domains just wasn’t the growth industry people thought it was. But the most important takeaway for me, one I have argued here several times, much to the dismay of my own readership, is that the dot com bubble did not kill domain names or websites. In fact, even with the open web’s several anemic state currently, there are more websites than ever. But simply owning one is no longer its own industry.
My most reasonable prediction about all of this is that an AI crash will play out similarly. Investing in an AI model will probably sound as silly as stockpiling domain names. Even if many of the big AI companies of the moment might implode and the term “AI” might even be so poisoned that it ends up being called something else, like “machine learning.” The tech, though, is probably here to stay. It may, like the humble website 25 years ago, even become more central to our daily lives, depending on what people end up doing with open source models, in particular. Before you yell at me, I’m not saying this because it’s what I want to happen, merely that there’s historical precedent. File types, protocols, algorithms, specific features, they all cause a gold rush before just being another thing anyone can add to their particular stack.
And while I’ve already got you hot and bothered over this take, I’ll double down and argue something even spicier. If companies like Google and Meta cannibalize their core product — search and social respectively — and go up in flames chasing AI that might actually be a good thing! Well, not for people who work there lol. But we both found content and one another online before they existed and there are more tools than ever now to do so now without them.
This is a question I keep asking myself about, well, the entire internet lately. “What if this all just doesn’t work this time?” What if AI companies can’t replace search? What if streaming video can’t replace Hollywood? What if short-form video apps can’t replace social media users? What if Silicon Valley can’t brute force their products — and ideology — onto the masses again? To take it even further, what if the dot com crash and the AI crash are actually part of the same 25 years epoch of technological stagnation? I’m not going to lie, I find this line of questioning exhilarating.
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Sneak peek at new Siri app reveals Apple’s plans to take on ChatGPT and more • TechCrunch
Sarah Perez:
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Just ahead of Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June, Bloomberg has published leaked renders of what Apple’s planned AI upgrade could look like on iPhone — including a brand-new Siri app meant to rival ChatGPT and other AI chatbots — as well as how Siri’s new capabilities will be woven throughout the operating system.
The images were produced by Bloomberg based on what it saw and learned from sources.
While you’ll still be able to press a button in iOS 27 to trigger Siri, the animation and response will now emerge from the iPhone’s Dynamic Island — that’s the black pill-shaped area at the top of the screen that today houses Live Activities, the real-time updates and interactive displays from apps that appear directly on the phone’s Home Screen. This mode will work best for quick voice queries or searches, much like how people use Siri currently.
A new mode, however, will put Siri-powered search within easy reach, capitalizing on people’s muscle memory for swiping down on their screen to access Spotlight Search — a built-in way to find information from both your phone and the web in one place. The swipe-down gesture will still open search, but now those searches will draw on the AI-powered Siri, which includes a rebuilt AI model that uses Google’s Gemini AI technology under the hood for added intelligence.
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Yes, but will Siri be any good at answering questions? That’s the real question. Gemini isn’t magic, and chatbots make mistakes. (I asked ChatGPT a tennis trivia question this evening: it got half the details right, half of them wrong.) Is that better or worse than web search?
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| • Why do social networks drive us a little mad? • Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see? • How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online? • What can we do about it? • Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016? Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more. |
Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified








