
The level of the river Danube has fallen so low that the wrecks of German ships from WW2 are becoming visible again – and mammoth bones. CC-licensed photo by Witold Waschut on Flickr.
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The Overspill will be on a break for two weeks; back 24 August.
A selection of 11 links for you. Wrecked. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. On Bluesky: @charlesarthur.bsky.social. Observations and links welcome.
Should you use AI for a task? Here’s a simple way to decide • The Guardian
Bruce Schneier:
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The best way I’ve found to explain the dilemma comes from the AI researcher Daniel Meissler: it’s the difference between work and the gym.
At work, if your job is to move a bunch of heavy things from one side of the room to another, you should use whatever assistive tech you have on hand: a wagon, a forklift … even an AI-powered robot. But at the gym, it makes no sense for that robot to lift weights for you. The point of weightlifting isn’t to move heavy things across the room; it’s to actually lift those heavy things.
The same analysis holds for any task an AI can do for you. If it’s work – if the task has to be done and no one cares how – then it’s fine to use AI assistance. But if the task is more like the gym, and how the task is done is at least as important, then it probably doesn’t make sense to use AI.
This, of course, assumes that the AI is actually up for the task and that it’s trustworthy: that it can do the job well, that its mistakes are minimal and correctable, that it’s been secured from cyber-attacks that would influence its results. Those are all important, and shouldn’t be minimized. There’s no point giving an AI something that it can’t do reliably. But once you’re confident that the AI can perform the task, the work v gym distinction helps you decide if it should.
The writing assignments I give my students are gym tasks, not work tasks. I ask them to write policy memos not because the world needs more policy memos. I assign them because the very act of writing, which includes thinking and outlining and drafting and editing, making and criticizing and revising arguments, will help develop the critical thinking skills they will need in their future careers. And without this constant mental exercise, those skills will atrophy. Employers are already noticing.
Reading the assignments they turn in, I can see those skills either flourishing or atrophying in my students.
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(Thanks Joe S for the link.)
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It’s clear we won’t regulate AI for safety’s sake • Financial Times
Simon Kuper:
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Each time a technology changes the world, it takes ages for the world to spot the downsides, and longer before cautious regulation is attempted. Think of CO₂ emissions. In 1856, the American scientist Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that they could warm the planet, and here we are today. Similarly, since British scientists showed in the 1950s that cigarettes cause cancer, smoking has legally killed hundreds of millions of people. Today, two decades after social media and smartphones rewired our brains, we’re starting to try to regulate the tech, at least for children. The whole thing is a libertarian’s dream.
Whenever regulation is attempted, companies fight it. Shareholders don’t always defeat democracy, but that’s the way to bet on it. The country where most AI is being developed hasn’t passed a federal law regulating the technology. Instead, Donald Trump ordered government agencies to eliminate policies that could “hinder American AI dominance”. Aside from the EU’s AI Act, hardly any jurisdiction has even attempted comprehensive regulation. As usual, governments barely affect the trends that most affect our lives.
Voters aren’t pushing politicians to take on AI. Most people engage with the technology only as consumers. They struggle to think about its societal implications. They’re more comfortable arguing about identity, or the perceived personalities of politicians, though they often misjudge those too. Most media also neglect the topic. The day Anthropic launched Mythos, a model that seems able to hack almost any operating system, the journalist Shakeel Hashim noted: “The release does not appear near the top of the homepage on any major news site.”
No wonder, because AI is even harder to understand than previous innovations. It’s a closed-source technology, advancing at unprecedented speed, and developed by a tiny group of experts who themselves don’t fully understand it. Anthropic’s chief executive, Dario Amodei, writes: “People outside the field are often surprised and alarmed to learn that we do not understand how our own AI creations work . . . this lack of understanding is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology.”
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This article appeared in April, but its message is undimmed by the few months that have passed; if anything, it’s become even more true. The models are getting more powerful, while their supposed monitors are scratching their heads and saying “gee whiz! Didn’t expect that!”
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Artificial Intelligence used to design brand new viruses • BBC News
James Gallagher:
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Artificial Intelligence has been used to design brand new viruses that are fully functional and can replicate in the laboratory, say US researchers.
It is the first time whole genomes have been successfully designed by AI.
The resulting 16 novel viruses were created to infect bacteria and pose no threat to people.
The breakthrough has been labelled a “very significant turning point” in science that could unlock a new era for treating disease. But experts have also warned AI-designed viruses raise “urgent” safety and security concerns.
AI tools are rapidly advancing and have already been used to design new antibiotics.
But that is relatively simple compared with designing a new viable virus from scratch.
“This is a next step in the complexity that’s designable by generative AI, this is the first time generative AI has been used to design a complete genome, it’s something that can replicate and have other functions inside cells… this was new territory for us,” Brian Hie, assistant professor at Stanford University, told the BBC.
The technology works similarly to large language models, like ChatGPT, which predict sequences of text. In this instance the AI models, known as Evo1 and Evo2, predict the language of life rather than words.
The AI models were trained on genetic codes from viruses, bacteria, plants and people. They were then refined to produce a type of virus, known as a bacteriophage, which infect only specific species of bacteria.
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Yeah, even so, I think we’re OK for viruses, thanks very much.
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GPS and the lost art of getting lost • The New Yorker
Shayla Love:
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Around two years ago, Shachar Maidenbaum, a neuroscientist who studies spatial navigation at Ben-Gurion University, in Israel, drove north with his children to visit a friend. He was following his location on GPS, using the Waze app for directions, when an automated voice suddenly told him to turn left and drive roughly two hundred miles south. “I thought, What? I’m driving north. What’s going on?,” he told me. “Then I realized: my phone thinks I’m in Beirut.” Israel often jams GPS signals as a military strategy, and in recent years it has employed “spoofing,” a technique that sends fake location data to GPS-enabled devices. Some pilots and ship captains in the region have had to disable automated safety systems as a result.
Maidenbaum, who frequently asks research participants to find their way in virtual-reality experiments, was now facing his own navigational challenge. His friend had told him about a move from one address, near some train tracks, to a new one, so he decided to drive to the center of the correct town and find the tracks. After following them to his friend’s old street, he tried navigating based on his friend’s description of the move. He eventually made it to his destination, but the experience heightened his awareness of our new relationship to physical places. “For the first time, we have a society which is heavily reliant on GPS,” Maidenbaum told me. “What happens when it goes away?”
…In 2008, a study found that people who walked a route with GPS assistance were less able to draw the path they had taken, or to guess what direction they were facing, than those who walked the same route without GPS. In 2020, researchers at McGill University asked subjects to navigate two virtual mazes—one that was easily traversed with cognitive-mapping strategies and one that could be better navigated using stimulus response. The more that people used GPS, the worse their spatial memory seemed to be, and the worse they did on the cognitive-mapping maze. The participants who relied more on GPS also noticed fewer landmarks dotted around the maze, such as pyramids and trees, than those who used it less.
Maidenbaum, the neuroscientist, came to see Israel’s GPS-spoofing tactics as a natural experiment in how people navigate. Many people who were accustomed to GPS could no longer rely on it. He wound up surveying nearly 600 people in affected areas. (He has published his study as a preprint, while it is undergoing peer review.) Some of them complained about grocery deliveries that were directed out of the country, or of matching with users of dating apps across borders. About 80% of respondents still reached their destinations when GPS was disrupted. The rest, however, reported that they ultimately went home. “We’re seeing this group of twenty to twenty-five% who are taking this really hard,” he said.
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It’s amazing to think that there are couples who have never had a bitter argument with their spouse over the interpretation of the map and which exit the driver should have taken. A story that I always wanted to research but didn’t get round to was what happened to the companies selling A-Z motorway maps and city maps.
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Police warn of suspected TikTok farm arson trend • Farmers Weekly
Philip Case:
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Police have warned farmers to be on high alert after a suspected TikTok challenge encouraging people to “set fire to as much stuff as possible” emerged alongside a series of suspected deliberate attacks on hay and straw stacks across northern England.
West Mercia Police has urged farming organisations to alert members to the potential threat, following what it described as a recent spate of overnight arson attacks targeting haystacks.
In a message circulated to the farming community, the force said: “Following a recent spate of overnight arson attacks on hay stacks in the north of England there appears to be a TikTok challenge to ‘set fire to as much stuff as possible’.
“I know the farming community will be aware of the dangers of the dry weather but if it is possible to send out a message to all your members to be extra vigilant.”
The warning comes as Humberside Police investigates six suspected deliberate bale fires reported overnight on Thursday 30 July across North Lincolnshire.
Officers from the force’s Rural Task Force were called to fires at East Butterwick, Messingham, Susworth and Kirton in Lindsey.
Detectives believe the blazes may have been started deliberately and are appealing for information.
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Not absolutely definite that it’s a “TikTok trend” – there’s no quote from the company about what action it’s taking, if any – but you can imagine that it wouldn’t take a lot to get people doing stupid stuff.
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Stressed by heat, three lions die at Tokyo Zoo • The New York Times
Leo Sands and Kiuko Notoya:
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Three female lions have died at a zoo in Japan after suffering heat-related illnesses, staff at the facility said. The country is grappling with a blast of extreme heat that has led zoos to rethink how to protect their animals.
The lions, named Mugi, Ichigo and Ruena, died within five days of one another at Tokyo’s Tama Zoological Park, according to a statement from the facility released on Monday.
The zoo said it was too soon to determine the exact cause of the animals’ deaths, but that initial postmortem findings indicated that all three had suffered from systemic dehydration and multiple organ failure.
“We believe heat stress was a contributing factor,” the zoo said in the statement.
Japan has been gripped by soaring heat and last month, temperatures were higher than 104 degrees Fahrenheit in some places. Health authorities declared July 23 to be a kokushobi, a “cruel heat day.”
In mid-July, the zoo’s lions began exhibiting symptoms of appetite loss and reduced physical activity — possible symptoms of heat stroke. By July 22, 10 of the facility’s 16 lions were showing such severe symptoms that they required treatment.
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People say: but isn’t it hot in Kenya? Not those sorts of temperatures, and not with that humidity. But also: we are forcing animals to live in environments they can’t survive. And not only in zoos.
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“Stop all outdoor activities”: South Korea records its highest ever temperature • The Guardian
Mark Saunokonoko:
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South Korea has registered its highest temperature since records began more than a century ago, as authorities warned people to “immediately” stop all outdoor activities in affected areas.
The south-eastern city of Yangsan saw the temperature reach 42.5ºC on Sunday afternoon, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) said, the highest temperature reported since modern weather observation began in 1904.
Yangsan has been the centre of an ongoing heatwave, where temperatures exceeded 40ºC for a fifth consecutive day on Sunday, while many other cities including Daegu and Busan are seeing temperatures climb into the high 30s.
People gathered in airconditioned shopping malls or cafes to escape the blistering temperatures. Others sought relief under mist-spray zones set up in Seoul. Ju Dong-yeol, 27, took refuge from the heat in a Starbucks in the South Korean capital, along with his parents and told AFP “it is too hot to be outside doing anything”.
“I can’t think of anything else to do other than stay in airconditioned places like home, shopping malls and cafes,” the office worker said.
The city of Gyeongju, about 240km south-east of Seoul, reached 40.3C on Sunday, its highest recorded temperature in eight years.
North Korea has also faced punishing heat, with temperatures soaring as high as 40ºC in some regions, state media reported on Monday. Residents in Pyongyang have endured a week of nights where the temperature has not dropped below 25ºC.
…Officials are also monitoring Typhoon Dolphin, which is now tracking towards China’s south-east coastal regions, south of the Korean peninsula, and could dictate how long the stifling heat persists.
If the typhoon moves towards eastern China, it could increase humidity and potentially worsening the heatwave and tropical nights in Korea, the KMA said.
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You don’t think all these record temperatures are just chance, do you.
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As the Danube River dries up, World War II shipwrecks and mammoth bones come into view • CBS News
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Water levels on the Danube River, the second longest in Europe, have dropped so low because of drought that the hulks of dozens of World War II German battleships — and even the remains of an ancient woolly mammoth — are emerging into view.
They are a curious distraction from the summer heat crisis. The Danube’s record-low water levels have also forced power plants to the brink of shutting down, and governments across Central and Eastern Europe are taking steps to conserve electricity.
In the middle of the river separating Serbia and Romania, near the Serbian port of Prahovo, a rusty hull is now visible, along with a broken mast where the Nazi flag once flew.
The ships, some still laden with weapons, belonged to Nazi Germany’s Black Sea fleet that the Germans deliberately sank as they retreated from Romania and as Soviet forces advanced deeper into Europe near the end of the war.
At least 20 World War II wrecks of various sizes are now visible to the naked eye from the banks of Prahovo.
Ivica Gavrilovic, who has spent his whole life living beside the Danube, said the interest in the wrecks was high but access remained difficult. “People still don’t know how to access the ships themselves,” he said, while taking a family of three out on his small boat.
Historians say up to 200 German warships were scuttled in September 1944 near Prahovo in the Danube gorge as they came under Soviet fire. The idea behind the deliberate sinking was to slow down the Soviet advance in the Balkans. But Nazi Germany surrendered months later, in May 1945.
The sight of the old warships is a reminder that the Serbian government, with European Union financial support, has long been trying to do something about them. Some were removed from the river by Communist Yugoslav authorities, but most have remained because of the explosives they carried.
…Meanwhile, falling water levels in the Danube unveiled bones of a mammoth in Bulgaria, a local museum director told AFP.
The bone fragments found near the northeastern city of Ruse “very likely” belonged to a woolly mammoth that lived during the Ice Age, said Nikolay Nenov, director of the Regional Historical Museum.
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(Thanks Joe S for the pointer.)
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Russian propaganda website hit with record “pink slime” payout • City AM
Steve Dinneen:
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An Uzbek businessman has been awarded £105,000 in damages and £117,663.38 in legal costs after winning a defamation suit against a UK publishing network – the largest publicly reported payout in a so-called ‘pink slime’ case.
A City AM investigation into British publisher 2Trom was presented as evidence in the High Court case after we reported on a series of articles on its websites attacking international businessmen, many located in the former Soviet states. “Pink slime” refers to outlets that appear to be legitimate publishers but post content used for propaganda or misinformation.
Ovik Mkrtchyan, represented by Carter-Ruck, sued 2Trom and its director Viktor Tokarev over an article published in October 2024 accusing him of leading an Uzbek corruption network, embezzling state funds, laundering money and using the purchase of Asia Alliance Bank to seize state assets.
Mr Justice Fordham accepted that the London Post article – which is still available online – had seriously damaged Mkrtchyan’s reputation and contributed to his companies and a family member losing their banking services. 2Trom failed to contest the case and the judgment was entered by default. The company also failed to defend a 2025 copyright case brought by a photographer over use of his images.
As we revealed in our investigation, pink slime journalism is not necessarily aimed at reaching a wide audience; rather it is a tool used to help influence algorithms used by companies including banking compliance firms and to manipulate AI summaries on search engines.
“Coordinated disinformation and smear campaigns are no longer simply the domain of state actors,” according to Thomas Rudkin, a partner at Farrer & Co. “They are increasingly deployed by malicious actors – the classic MO is to have fictitious content published on paid websites with no editorial scrutiny.”
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Cheap to produce, expensive to get rid of: Carter-Ruck and High Court hearings don’t come cheap. One has to wonder if the Uzbek businessman will ever see his award.
Spam, slime, slop: the internet is making good use of all our unpleasant words.
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Some thoughts about Anthropic’s new cryptanalysis results • A Few Thoughts on Cryptographic Engineering
Matthew Green:
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If you’re under the impression that these models are “glorified autocomplete” or that progress is slowing down, I need to urge you: stop thinking that. The models are very intelligent and capable, they are getting better at a fast clip. I can cite measurable and impressive progress over just the past five months on specific types of problem I’ve asked them to look at. If there’s a ceiling out there, I don’t yet see evidence of it. The people who think models are dumb are mostly using Google’s free AI search results, and not interacting with the high-end stuff (which only costs $20, so it’s not out of reach.) And they’re mostly not working in new areas.
On the other hand: if you think that models are super-intelligent or that AGI is already here, you should also stop thinking that. Working with these tools is like swimming in a pond where the ground drops off sharply. One minute you’re wading comfortably and there’s support under your feet. Then suddenly you cross a specific line, and you’re back to swimming on your own. This analogy is my best way to explain what it feels like when the model goes from helpful to clueless. Right now it’s easy for a human being to find that line if you’re doing advanced research, so you know where the intelligence drops off. But the line is moving. You can feel it slowly drifting outwards under your feet.
Whether this is good or bad depends whether you prefer that human beings should wade or swim, and also, whether you should be comfortable swimming in a pond where the ground itself is moving.
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The first two are the same paragraphs as John Gruber quotes, but I think that the close of the second paragraph and the third say a lot more about how things are changing.
And ChatGPT’s public face isn’t four years old at this point.
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Bus Service Standards across Britain: zoomable map • Campaign for Better Transport
Campaign for Better Transport:
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Connectivity isn’t just about having a stop nearby; it’s about whether that stop actually connects you to places. We measure both:
Method A: Infrastructure
Do you have physical stops in your neighbourhood, and are there enough of them for the population density?
Method B: Access (People)
Can people actually walk to a stop with decent frequency? We check if households are within 400m (5-min) or 800m (10-min) of a stop.
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You can zoom in a long way with this, though it seems a little optimistic about buses. And the problem with buses is always about timing and routes, not just how far you have to walk to get to a stop for them.
A nice example of using open data to build something, though. (Thanks Joe S for the link.)
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| • Why do social networks drive us a little mad? • Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see? • How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online? • What can we do about it? • Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016? Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more. |
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