BlackBerry results: my forecast: 1.3m phones, $20m operating loss

Ahead of BlackBerry’s results on Tuesday, here’s my forecast, for what it’s worth.

I’m taking the analyst consensus revenue estimate of $690m as my basis. That’s down 30% on the same time last year. If it’s much bigger or smaller than that, then everything else goes off, but it seems reasonable.

I estimate the following:
operating loss: $20m (excluding adjustments for the value of the $1bn debentures)
phones shipped: 1.3m (I don’t see any improvement from last year, when it did 1.6m, including 1.04m BB10 handsets; this time it’s going to be all BB10)
handset revenue: $353m
device ASP (average selling price): $271.54
subscriber accounts: 34m (down 3m from the previous quarter)
per-account service revenue: $7.56 (or $8.50 per BB7 device in use)
services revenue: $257m (based on those accounts)
software and other revenue: $70m and $10m
per-handset operating profit: -$97 (loss of $97)

The operating profit follows directly from the fact that software and services profit is 84% of revenue. I’ve used figures that follow logically from what BlackBerry is doing.

Conclusions (ahead of the numbers; we’ll see how it goes when they’re out):

– handsets still aren’t cutting it. (The Kantar numbers show no significant change.)
– software revenues are still small – nowhere near a $600m per year company
– thank god for the services revenue, but that’s going away too.

Now let’s see the actual numbers..

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