We were warned that the US presidential election would be overrun with deepfakes – so what happened? CC-licensed photo by Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken on Flickr.

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A selection of 9 links for you. Verified. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.

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AI’s underwhelming impact on the 2024 elections • TIME

Andrew Chow:

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fears of the election being derailed or defined by AI now appear to have been overblown. Political deepfakes have been shared across social media, but have been just a small part of larger misinformation campaigns. The U.S. Intelligence Community wrote in September that while foreign actors like Russia were using generative AI to “improve and accelerate” attempts to influence voters, the tools did not “revolutionize such operations.”

Tech insiders acknowledge 2024 was not a breakthrough year for generative AI in politics. “There are a lot of campaigns and organizations using AI in some way or another. But in my view, it did not reach the level of impact that people anticipated or feared,” says Betsy Hoover, the founder of Higher Ground Labs, a venture fund that invests in political technology.

At the same time, researchers warn that the impacts of generative AI on this election cycle have yet to be fully understood, especially because of their deployment on private messaging platforms. They also contend that even if the impact of AI on this campaign seems underwhelming, it is likely to balloon in coming elections as the technology improves and its usage grows among the general public and political operatives. “I’m sure in another year or two the AI models will get better,” says Sunny Gandhi, the vice president of political affairs at Encode Justice. “So I’m pretty worried about what it will look like in 2026 and definitely 2028.”

Generative AI has already had a clear impact on global politics. In countries across South Asia, candidates used artificial intelligence to flood the public with articles, images and video deepfakes. In February, an audio deepfake was disseminated that falsely purported to depict London Mayor Sadiq Khan making inflammatory comments before a major pro-Palestinian march. Khan says that the audio clip inflamed violent clashes between protestors and counter-protestors.

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The BBC link for the Khan mention dates back to February, and relates to a deepfake audio clip that sounded like Khan which circulated in November 2023, encouraging a Palestinian march in London. But that march was going ahead, and there’s no evidence it was made worse by the clip.

I’m going to suggest that deepfakes – videos or audios – aren’t going to be effective in disrupting politics. There’s too much flow, so that any fake can be quickly checked and disavowed. The Washington Post agrees that AI didn’t change anything, though it might have deepened divides – except the number of swing voters suggests to me that isn’t true either.
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Why has the Internet of Things failed? • Pete Warden’s blog

Pete Warden:

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Setup: The biggest obstacle is the setup tax. All of our communication technologies, from WiFi to cellular, cost money to use, and so require authentication and billing accounts. This isn’t as big a problem with PCs and phones because we only replace them every few years, and they have screens and keyboards, so going through the setup process is comparatively straightforward. By comparison, your fridge or toaster probably doesn’t have a full-featured user interface, and so you’re expected to download a phone app, and then use that to indirectly set up your appliance.

This adds multiple extra steps, and anyone who’s ever worked on a customer funnel means that every additional stage means losing some people along the way. If you also factor in that a household might have dozens of different devices that all want you to go through the same process, with different applications, accounts, and quirks, it’s clear why people suffer from setup fatigue and often don’t even try.

Uselessness: Last year I talked to an engineer who had spent six months working on a smart dishwasher that could be connected to the internet. He confessed that none of the team had been able to figure out a compelling user benefit for the system. You could start the dishwasher remotely, but how did that help if you had to be there in person to load it? Knowing when it was done was mildly useful, but most people would know that from when they started it. With phones and PCs adding an internet connection unlocked immediately compelling use cases, thanks to all the human-readable content on web pages, and once the network was widely available more applications like Salesforce or Uber added to the appeal.

We’ve never seen anything like this for IoT in the consumer space. Getting an alert that your fridge door has been left open is nice, but isn’t much better than having an audible alarm go off. Amazon, Apple, and Google have tried to use voice interfaces as a selling point for devices to connect through their ecosystem, but almost nobody uses them for anything other than setting alarms and playing songs.

There’s also no inherent reason to send audio data to the cloud to have a voice interface, one of the reasons we founded Useful was to bring local speech interfaces to everyday objects. People need a motivation to connect their devices, especially with the time cost involved in setup, and nobody has given them one.

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As he points out, less than 50% of internet-capable appliances actually get connected.
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TSMC will stop making 7 nm chips for Chinese customers • Financial Times via Ars Technica

Kathrin Hille and Ryan McMorrow:

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has notified Chinese chip design companies that it will suspend production of their most advanced artificial intelligence chips, as Washington continues to impede Beijing’s AI ambitions.

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, told Chinese customers it would no longer manufacture AI chips at advanced process nodes of 7 nanometers or smaller as of this coming Monday, three people familiar with the matter said.

Two of the people said any future supplies of such semiconductors by TSMC to Chinese customers would be subject to an approval process likely to involve Washington.

TSMC’s tighter rules could reset the ambitions of Chinese technology giants such as Alibaba and Baidu, which have invested heavily in designing semiconductors for their AI clouds, as well as a growing number of AI chip design start-ups that have turned to the Taiwanese group for manufacturing.

The US has barred American companies like Nvidia from shipping cutting-edge processors to China and also created an extensive export control system to stop chipmakers worldwide that are using US technology from shipping advanced AI processors to China. There have been reports that a new US rule would ban foundries from making advanced AI chips designed by Chinese firms, according to analysts at investment bank Jefferies.

TSMC is rolling out its new policy as the US Commerce Department investigates how cutting-edge chips the group made for a Chinese customer ended up in a Huawei AI device. The Chinese national tech champion is subject to multiple US sanctions and export controls.

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The Huawei restrictions, in case you’d forgotten, date back to Trump’s first term.
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How It Went • Daring Fireball

John Gruber:

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My mom died at the end of June this year.

I know, and I’m sorry — that’s a hell of a way to open a piece ostensibly about a depressing, worrisome, frightening election result. But here’s the thing I want to emphasize right up front: my mom’s death was OK. It really was. She was 78, which isn’t that old, but her health had not been great. She was hospitalized for several days in May, just a month prior, after she had collapsed at home, too weak to stand, and for days it wasn’t clear what was wrong. Then some more test results came back and we had the answer. She had ovarian cancer, bad. It had already metastasized. The prognosis was grim: months to live, at best. And those months, toward the end, would inexorably grow ever more painful and profoundly sad.

Her mental acuity had begun to slip in recent years, too. Not a lot, but if you knew her you’d notice. But she faced this prognosis with remarkable dignity, courage, and clarity. She knew the score. It was what it was, and she’d make the best of the time she had left. She was tired but still felt pretty good most days. There were flashes of her younger self, the Mom I remember growing up with. It was wonderful to see those flashes. The bad times were coming, but they laid ahead. On the last Monday night in June she and my dad went out to eat at their favorite restaurant. They had a good meal and a good time. It was a great day. Tuesday morning she played Wordle and reported her score to our family group chat. Then around noon, she just fell over, dead. My dad found her unresponsive, called 911, and they arrived in minutes, but she was gone. No suffering.

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This is only the opening of a long, beautiful, elegiac piece, which is your day’s must-read. It will uplift you. But you have to read through to the end. I think I’ve read everything Gruber has written on his site, which goes back 22 years, and this is without a doubt the best thing he has ever written.
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Apple Mac Mini M4 review: a tiny wonder • The Verge

Chris Welch:

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As I said earlier, the $599 Mini is the best value around if you haven’t yet joined the Mac side of Apple’s ecosystem. Even the $799 configuration I tested, with 16GB of memory and a 512GB SSD, seems reasonable. But once you go beyond that in RAM or storage, Apple’s pricing smacks of greed and padding the company’s bottom line. That’s true across the line, but it’s felt more acutely on a machine that starts at only $599. Stepping up to 1TB of storage and 32GB of RAM brings the price to $1,399. Yikes.

For most, the Mini will be a stationary computer, and the presence of three Thunderbolt ports means you can attach a speedy external SSD without caving to Apple’s farcical rates. Given that, the other $799 config, with 24GB of RAM and 256GB of storage, could be more worthwhile. Neither can be upgraded later, so it’s important to get the specs right when buying.

You can use Apple’s display and accessories… or get as creative as you want with third-party options.
Every time I glance over at the new Mac Mini on my desk, it feels like the Mini’s ideal form. The redesigned enclosure makes the most of Apple Silicon’s small footprint, and with Apple’s M4 chip and an ample selection of ports, the 2024 Mini should remain a zippy, reliable computer for years to come. It’s never been more mighty. Well, except for the much pricier M4 Pro version. Stay tuned for more on that soon.

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A calculation on the ATP podcast suggested that Apple’s RAM and SSD upgrades are priced at 6.5x above retail level. Given Apple would buy at wholesale, ie 40% of retail at most, that’s about 16x the wholesale price, or more. It’s insane, but Apple has been doing it for years. At least for SSDs you can plug in an external drive.
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Deleted tweets, missed warnings and calls for the ‘hangman’: the bitter political fallout from Spain’s floods • The Guardian

Sam Jones:

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The sun still hadn’t risen on Tuesday 29 October when the mayor of Utiel, Ricardo Gabaldón, took another look at the warnings from Spain’s state meteorological office and ordered all the schools in the small Valencian town to close.

“The warning early that morning – at 5am or 6am – was orange,” he said. “That’s when I was weighing up whether to close the schools here. In the end, I ordered them to close at six or seven that morning. Soon after, the alert went red.”

Although the rain brought floods that have so far claimed at least 223 lives in Spain – six of them in Utiel – Gabaldón knows the death toll could have been far higher in his town had the schools been open. Children and their parents would have died on flooded roads during the drive in from surrounding villages, and students could have been drowned in their school corridors. “Thank goodness that the children weren’t here,” he said. “Otherwise we’d be talking about something else entirely.”

The foresight and initiative Gabaldón showed in the first moments of the worst natural disaster in Spain’s modern history were far from ubiquitous. The alerts that are pinged to people’s mobile phones in times of civil emergency were not sent out by the Valencian regional government until after 8pm on Tuesday. By then, a year’s worth of rain had fallen in some areas in a matter of hours and the flood waters in Utiel were three metres high.

Even as emergency teams search for the 78 people still listed as missing, questions are being asked about the authorities’ handling of the crisis, one that has brought out the very worst, and the very best, in people.

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Climate change is going to affect governments around the Mediterranean because warmer water evaporates more easily and is dumped on the land. This sort of crisis will become more, not less, common.
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The media’s identity crisis • The Atlantic

Charlie Warzel:

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“You are the media now.” That’s the message that began to cohere among right-wing influencers shortly after Donald Trump won the election this week. Elon Musk first posted the phrase, and others followed. “The legacy media is dead. Hollywood is done. Truth telling is in. No more complaining about the media,” the right-wing activist James O’Keefe posted shortly after. “You are the media.”

It’s a particularly effective message for Musk, who spent $44 billion to purchase a communications platform that he has harnessed to undermine existing media institutions and directly support Trump’s campaign. QAnon devotees also know the phrase as a rallying cry, an invitation to participate in a particular kind of citizen “journalism” that involves just asking questions and making stuff up altogether.

“You are the media now” is also a good message because, well, it might be true.

A defining quality of this election cycle has been that few people seem to be able to agree on who constitutes “the media,” what their role ought to be, or even how much influence they have in 2024. Based on Trump and Kamala Harris’s appearances on various shows—and especially Trump and J. D. Vance’s late-race interviews with Joe Rogan, which culminated in the popular host’s endorsement—some have argued that this was the “podcast election.” But there’s broad confusion over what actually moves the needle.

Is the press the bulwark against fascism, or is it ignored by a meaningful percentage of the country? It is certainly beleaguered by a conservative effort to undermine media institutions, with Trump as its champion and the fracturing caused by algorithmic social media. It can feel existential at times competing for attention and reckoning with the truth that many Americans don’t read, trust, or really care all that much about what papers, magazines, or cable news have to say.

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People have been “cable-cutting” – dropping their cable contracts – for years in favour of YouTube and the internet. Megyn Kelly was on the Today programme last week boasting about how CNN had had 4 million viewers on election night – and she had had 4 million on her YouTube stream at the same time. Plus the median age of these channels is zooming up: MTV’s median age is 50; for CNN, it’s 70. Those channels are not coming back from that cliff edge.
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Questionmarks of the Mysterians • New Cartographies

Nicholas Carr:

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what if our faith in nature’s knowability is just an illusion, a trick of the overconfident human mind? That’s the working assumption behind a school of thought known as Mysterianism. Situated at the fruitful if sometimes fraught intersection of scientific and philosophic inquiry, the Mysterianist view has been promulgated, in different ways, by many prominent thinkers, from the philosopher Colin McGinn to the linguist Noam Chomsky to the cognitive scientist Steven Pinker. The Mysterians propose that human intellect has boundaries and that many of the mysteries of the cosmos will forever lie beyond our comprehension.

Mysterianism is most closely associated with the so-called hard problem of consciousness: How can the inanimate matter of the brain produce subjective feelings? The Mysterians suggest that the human mind is incapable of understanding itself, that we will never know how consciousness works. But if Mysterianism applies to the workings of the mind, there’s no reason it shouldn’t also apply to the workings of nature in general. As McGinn has suggested, “It may be that nothing in nature is fully intelligible to us.”

The simplest and best argument for Mysterianism is founded on evolutionary evidence. When we examine any other living creature, we understand immediately that its intellect is limited. Even the brightest, most curious dog is not going to master arithmetic. Even the wisest of owls knows nothing of the physiology of the field mouse it devours. If all the minds that evolution has produced have bounded comprehension, then it’s only logical that our own minds, also products of evolution, would have limits as well. As Pinker has put it, “The brain is a product of evolution, and just as animal brains have their limitations, we have ours.” To assume that there are no limits to human understanding is to believe in a level of human exceptionalism that seems miraculous, if not mystical.

…What’s truly disconcerting about Mysterianism is that, if our intellect is bounded, we can never know how much of existence lies beyond our grasp. What we know or may in the future know may be trifling compared with the unknowable unknowns.

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This has always seemed an obvious point to me: there must be aliens whose cognitive abilities are beyond ours, just as ours are beyond dogs. What happens if we meet them?
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The sinking of the Bayesian and the Mohawk • Churbuck

David Churbuck:

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In the department of history-repeating-itself, here is a strange historical coincidence from the realm of current events, maritime history and 19th century American yachting: two superyachts capsize and sink at anchor, only a few hundred yards from shore, killing their wealthy owners, guests, and crew when a summer squall overwhelmed them. The story of the two catastrophes dominated the news for weeks.

This is the story of the Mohawk and the Bayesian: two superyacht tragedies that killed their wealthy owners a century and a half apart.

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Bizarre how these things happen. Then happen again.
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• Why do social networks drive us a little mad? • Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see? • How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online? • What can we do about it? • Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016? Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.

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Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified