
Ahead of talks with Trump, China has imposed export controls on a wide range of materials such as rare earths essential for batteries and magnets. CC-licensed photo by Алексей Тараканов on Flickr.
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It’s Friday, so there’s another post due at the Social Warming Substack at about 0845 UK time. It’s about LLMs showing signs of social warming. Two for the price of one!
A selection of 10 links for you. Very rare. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. On Bluesky: @charlesarthur.bsky.social. Observations and links welcome.
Amazon’s giant ads have ruined the Echo Show • The Verge
Jennifer Pattison Tuohy:
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Last week, Amazon launched a major update of its line of Alexa-enabled Echo smart speakers and displays. The redesign — led by former Microsoft design chief Ralf Groene, whom Amazon Devices & Services head Panos Panay coaxed out of retirement — included two new Echo Show smart displays. According to Panay, these new models are the first step on a road to building “products that customers love.”
But there’s one big barrier to customers loving their Echo Shows: ads.
In recent months, full-screen display ads with the tag “sponsored” have been appearing on current Echo Shows, and users are not happy. These ads are new and very intrusive, appearing between photos when the Show is set to Photo Frame mode or between content if it’s set to show different categories (such as music, recipes, news).
As I type, the last-gen Echo Show 8 on my desk just showed an ad for an herbal supplement between a snapshot of my daughter dancing at her aunt’s wedding and a baby picture of my son. The ad reappeared two photos later, and then again. And again.
While advertising has been part of Alexa on Echo devices for a while, in the form of Alexa’s “By the way” feature, the Show’s Shopping category (which you can disable), and the occasional product ad, it’s never been so blatant.
As these new “sponsored” ads become more pervasive, it feels like a bait and switch. There was no indication on the packaging that you were buying an ad-supported product.
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Something something frog and the scorpion.
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How well can large language models predict the future? • Forecasting Research Institute
Forecasting Research Institute:
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When will artificial intelligence (AI) match top human forecasters at predicting the future? In a recent podcast episode, Nate Silver predicted 10–15 years. Tyler Cowen disagreed, expecting a 1–2 year timeline. Who’s more likely to be right?
Today, the Forecasting Research Institute is excited to release an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark tracking how well large language models (LLMs) forecast real-world events—with evidence that bears directly on this debate. We’re also opening the benchmark for submissions.
Here are our key findings:
• Superforecasters still outperform leading LLMs, but the gap is modest. The best-performing model in our sample is GPT-4.5, which achieves a Brier score of 0.101 versus superforecasters’ 0.081 (lower is better)
• LLMs now outperform non-expert public participants. A year ago, the median public forecast ranked #2 on our leaderboard, right behind superforecasters and ahead of all LLMs. Today it sits at #22. This achievement represents a significant milestone in AI forecasting capability
• State-of-the-art LLMs show steady improvement, with projected LLM-superforecaster parity in late 2026 (95% CI: December 2025 – January 2028). Across all questions in our sample, LLM performance improves by around 0.016 Brier points per year. Linear extrapolation suggests LLMs could match expert human performance on ForecastBench in around a year if current trends continue.«
This is impressive and faintly scary. You can see that these systems are surely being adopted inside governments, quietly, to try to figure out policy strategies. (If they aren’t, then they should be.)
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China tightens export rules for crucial rare earths • BBC News
Peter Hoskins and Laura Bicker:
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China has tightened export controls on rare earths and other materials critical for advanced tech manufacturing as trade negotiations continue with the US.
It processes around 90% of the world’s rare earths, which go into everything from solar panels to smartphones – a key bargaining chip ahead of an expected meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump this month.
Beijing had already restricted processing technology and unauthorised overseas co-operation, but Thursday’s announcement formalised the rules. Foreign companies now need the Chinese government’s approval to export products with even small amounts of rare earths and must explain their intended use.
The ministry announced similar restrictions on the export of lithium batteries and some forms of graphite, which are also essential components in the global tech supply chain and largely produced in China.
Beijing said the regulations are intended to “safeguard national security”. One of the main targets of these controls appears to be overseas defence manufacturers, including those in the US, who rely on rare earths from China.
China had added several rare earths and related material to its export control list in April, as the trade war with Washington ramped up, which caused a major global shortage.
But the new announcement makes clear that licenses are unlikely to be issued to arms manufacturers and certain companies in the chip industry.
Even the technology used to mine and process rare earths, or to make magnets from rare earths, can only be exported with permission from the government, the Commerce Ministry said.
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This gives China a gigantic bargaining chip for the upcoming summit with Trump. Adding bureaucracy to such exports is a classic control move.
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US regulators launch investigation into self-driving Teslas after series of crashes • Reuters via The Guardian
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US automobile safety regulators have opened an investigation into Tesla vehicles equipped with its full self-driving (FSD) technology over traffic-safety violations after a series of crashes.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said the electric carmaker’s FSD assistance system, which requires drivers to pay attention and intervene if needed, had “induced vehicle behaviour that violated traffic safety laws”.
The preliminary evaluation by the NHTSA is the first step before potentially seeking a recall of the vehicles if it believes they pose a risk to safety.
The agency said it had received reports of Teslas driving through red traffic lights and driving against the proper direction of travel during a lane change while in FSD mode, which is available in 2.88m vehicles.
NHTSA said it has six reports in which a Tesla vehicle, operating with full self-driving (FSD) engaged, “approached an intersection with a red traffic signal, continued to travel into the intersection against the red light and was subsequently involved in a crash with other motor vehicles in the intersection”.
The agency said four crashes had resulted in one or more injuries. Tesla did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
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The self-driving nirvana has been delayed once more.
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Here’s how Apple is locking down iPhones to comply with Texas’s age verification law • The Verge
Jay Peters:
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Starting next year, Texas will require companies like Apple and Google to verify the ages of people that use their app stores, and Apple shared today how it’s going to comply. Starting January 1st, 2026, anyone trying to make a new Apple Account must confirm if they are over 18, and any users under 18 must join a Family Sharing group. Parents and guardians will also be required to give their consent for users under 18 to download apps or to make in-app purchases.
Developers will also have to make changes to comply with the law. Apple already offers a Declared Age Range API that developers can implement to ask users their general age, and the API “will be updated in the coming months to provide the required age categories for new account users in Texas,” Apple says. Apple is also launching new APIs “later this year” that “will enable developers, when they determine a significant change is made to their app, to invoke a system experience to allow the user to request that parental consent be re-obtained.”
Utah and Louisiana have passed similar laws, and Apple says that “similar requirements will come into effect later next year” in those states. Google has also shared guidance about how it will support Google Play developers ahead of the age verification laws going into effect.
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This is Apple following the law to the letter. Which is fine: that’s what we expect companies to do. What we don’t expect them to do is bow silently to governmental demands without requiring legal powers first.
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The 25 most interesting ideas I’ve found in 2025 (so far) • Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson:
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When I’m reading on my phone, I take a screenshot of whatever interests me. After a few months, I’ll have dozens to hundreds of morsels to serve as inspiration for essays and podcasts, including excerpts from books, photographs of magazine text, charts from economic papers, and screen grabs of tweets.
Before I had a newsletter, there was nowhere for me to publish this information inventory. Now that I have this newsletter, and I thought it might be fun and useful to organize the most interesting things I’ve seen this year by subject matter and write something about why they struck me and what story they tell about America or the world.
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No point even trying to precis these; except to say they’re all interesting (though some, such as housebuilding, are easily answered: too much NIMBYism).
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‘AI is here to stay and change things’: Mad Max director George Miller on why he is taking part in an AI film festival • The Guardian
Kelly Burke:
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In May, during heated discussions at the Cannes film festival, the industry was warned it was on a slippery slope, with AI threatening jobs, copyright protections and the integrity of the creative process.
But the film industry is far from united against AI; not everyone believes its rapid advance is eroding the very essence of human storytelling. “The wave is coming and it’s impossible to stop it,” one producer told a Cannes roundtable. “Our only option is to surf on it.”
Now, one of Australia’s most decorated film-makers is getting on his board: acclaimed Mad Max director and producer George Miller.
“AI is arguably the most dynamically evolving tool in making moving image,” Miller tells the Guardian. “As a film-maker, I’ve always been driven by the tools. AI is here to stay and change things.”
Miller is about to lead the judging panel at the Omni 1.0 AI film festival, Australia’s first fully fledged award festival for wholly AI-generated films. He joined the jury out of “intense curiosity” about the evolving role of AI in storytelling – and his interest goes beyond the technology. AI, he believes, is part of a deeper philosophical shift in our understanding of creative authorship.
“It’s the balance between human creativity and machine capability, that’s what the debate and the anxiety is about,” he says. “It strikes me how this debate echoes earlier moments in art history.”
He likens our current moment to the Renaissance, when the introduction of oil paint “gave artists the freedom to revise and enhance their work over time”.
“That shift sparked controversy – some argued that true artists should be able to commit to the canvas without corrections, others embraced the new flexibility,” Miller says. “A similar debate unfolded in the mid-19th century with the arrival of photography. Art has to evolve. And while photography became its own form, painting continued. Both changed, but both endured. Art changed.”
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Why are so many pedestrians killed by cars in the US? • Construction Physics
Brian Potter:
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It’s unfortunately not uncommon for pedestrians to be killed by cars in the US. More than 7,300 pedestrians were killed in motor vehicle accidents in the US in 2023, around 18% of all motor vehicle deaths that year. Until around 2009, pedestrian deaths in the US had been falling, declining from 7,516 deaths in 1975 to just 4,109 in 2009 (in per capita terms, this decline would be even larger.) But since 2009, pedestrian deaths have surged.
Motor vehicle deaths overall are up, but not nearly to the same degree. From 2009 to 2023, non-pedestrian motor vehicle deaths in the US increased by around 13%, compared to a 78% increase in pedestrian deaths. (The low point in non-pedestrian motor vehicle deaths is actually 2014; deaths are up 20% since then.)
Other countries haven’t seen this increase in pedestrian deaths: in every other high-income country, rates are flat or declining. Whatever’s causing the problem seems to be limited to the US.
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You’re probably thinking “it’s big SUVs which kill people more easily!” But other countries have bought SUVs with even more eagerness than the US without the same rise in pedestrian deaths. The article tortures the data, but the answer.. remains elusive. (I have a suspicion, based on the shape of the deaths graph.)
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JPMorgan reportedly foots $115m of legal bills for Charlie Javice, co-defendant who scammed bank out of $175m • NY Post
Ariel Zilber:
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JPMorgan Chase is footing a staggering $115m bill for the army of lawyers who defended convicted fraudster Charlie Javice and her former colleague Olivier Amar — a sum nearly two-thirds of what the bank paid for their ill-fated student-finance startup Frank.
At trial, 19 lawyers appeared for Javice and 16 for Amar, an extraordinary show of legal firepower that helped drive the cost of their defense to a nine-figure sum.
By comparison, Theranos fraudster Elizabeth Holmes spent around $30m on attorneys before she was sentenced to years behind bars for orchestrating her scheme.
JPMorgan Chase is paying a staggering $115m to cover the legal bills for Charlie Javice and Olivier Amar, who defrauded the bank out of $175m.
Javice was sentenced to seven years in prison last week.
The payments — mandated under the Frank merger agreement — were confirmed in filings after a Delaware court ruled JPMorgan must advance the pair’s legal costs, even though the bank later fired them for orchestrating the $175m fraud.
Former prosecutor Kevin O’Brien called the bill a “huge, huge number,” noting Javice “had a lot of high-priced legal talent.”
“It helps if someone else is picking up the bill,” O’Brien told Bloomberg.
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For those who haven’t caught up, Javice got a clause put into the takeover document saying that JP Morgan would cover her legal bills. Which turned out to include being sued for defrauding JP Morgan by falsifying user numbers for the app, claiming 4.25 million when there were fewer than 300,000.
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The Chinese migrant workers powering the deadly EV nickel boom • Rest Of World
Wufei Yu:
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Driven by economic and social pressures, tens of thousands of workers from China, mostly middle-aged men, are employed in eastern Indonesia’s nickel industry, which has sprung up in the last decade. Just as critical minerals crisscross the globe before they’re incorporated into cutting-edge products, so too do some of the people who make the world’s green dreams a reality.
Over seven months, Grist spoke to more than a dozen of these Chinese workers and their family members, as well as Indonesian labor leaders who have negotiated factory conditions with top Chinese executives. We’ve found that, even following fatal accidents at the smelters, efforts to improve working conditions have been slow, hindered by a lack of oversight from companies, governments, and international labor groups that were dependent on U.S. funding terminated by the Trump administration. We also obtained an internal company review of a nickel smelter expansion that shows facilities are likely spreading pollution and illness well beyond factory walls. Despite the challenges, new nickel processing plants continue to emerge in Indonesia and hire from China.
Before joining Indonesia’s nickel rush, most of these Chinese men had spent almost all their lives in their home country, working in declining steel factories. Like Wong, they had never before owned a passport or boarded a flight. Their leap into the nickel refining industry has helped create entire towns on remote islands in Indonesia, and it’s made them an unlikely backbone of the world’s green energy transition.
The men work alongside hundreds of thousands of Indonesian colleagues. Though Indonesia is the world’s fourth-most populous country, its workforce does not have the industrial experience needed in the new facilities. Companies have turned to China to fill the gap.
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| • Why do social networks drive us a little mad? • Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see? • How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online? • What can we do about it? • Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016? Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more. |
Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified









