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About charlesarthur

Freelance journalist - technology, science, and so on. Author of "Digital Wars: Apple, Google, Microsoft and the battle for the internet".

Start Up No.2341: OpenAI taunts NYT over “lost” data, Google ponders Apple’s ad plans, Pakistan bans WhatsApp, and more


Our modern world of human-pretending chatbots and fake-real images would seem very recognisable to SF writer Philip K Dick. CC-licensed photo by Bill Smith on Flickr.

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There’s another post coming this week at the Social Warming Substack on Friday at 0845 UK time. Free signup.


A selection of 9 links for you. Probably real. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


The PKD Dystopia • Programmable Mutter

Henry Farrell:

»

Standard utopias and standard dystopias are each perfect after their own particular fashion. We live somewhere queasier—a world in which technology is developing in ways that make it increasingly hard to distinguish human beings from artificial things. The world that the Internet and social media have created is less a system than an ecology, a proliferation of unexpected niches, and entities created and adapted to exploit them in deceptive ways.

Vast commercial architectures are being colonized by quasi-autonomous parasites. Scammers have built algorithms to write fake books from scratch to sell on Amazon, compiling and modifying text from other books and online sources such as Wikipedia, to fool buyers or to take advantage of loopholes in Amazon’s compensation structure. Much of the world’s financial system is made out of bots—automated systems designed to continually probe markets for fleeting arbitrage opportunities. Less sophisticated programs plague online commerce systems such as eBay and Amazon, occasionally with extraordinary consequences, as when two warring bots bid the price of a biology book up to $23,698,655.93 (plus $3.99 shipping). [Recounted in Social Warming – Overspill Ed.]

In other words, we live in Philip K. Dick’s future, not George Orwell’s or Aldous Huxley’s. Dick was no better a prophet of technology than any science fiction writer, and was arguably worse than most. His imagined worlds jam together odd bits of fifties’ and sixties’ California with rocket ships, drugs, and social speculation. Dick usually wrote in a hurry and for money, and sometimes under the influence of drugs or a recent and urgent personal religious revelation.

Still, what he captured with genius was the ontological unease of a world in which the human and the abhuman, the real and the fake, blur together. As Dick described his work (in the opening essay to his 1985 collection, I Hope I Shall Arrive Soon):

»

The two basic topics which fascinate me are “What is reality?” and “What constitutes the authentic human being?” Over the twenty-seven years in which I have published novels and stories I have investigated these two interrelated topics over and over again.

«

These obsessions had some of their roots in Dick’s complex and ever-evolving personal mythology (in which it was perfectly plausible that the “real” world was a fake, and that we were all living in Palestine sometime in the first century AD). Yet they were also based on a keen interest in the processes through which reality is socially constructed.

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Farrell makes a really good point: this is a dystopia that Dick would recognise at once.
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WhatsApp becomes the latest social media app blocked in Pakistan • TechRadar

Chiara Castro:

»

Pakistan restricted yet another social media platform over the weekend.

WhatsApp is the new target of government censorship after X, Facebook, Instagram, and, most recently, Bluesky were blocked across the country.

The internet watchdog NetBlocks reported the outage on Saturday, November 23, 2024 (see tweet below).

“The measure comes as authorities tighten security ahead of protests planned by opposition party PTI calling for the release of former PM Imran Khan,” noted the experts.

Censorship levels in Pakistan have increased significantly in 2024.

Today’s most popular social media platforms first went dark in January, a month away from general elections, as Khan’s party, PTI, launched its online election fundraising telethon.

Authorities enforced a temporary internet shutdown on February 8, election day. X was then restricted on the night of February 17, as a wave of protests contesting election results spread across the country. To this day, Pakistanis still cannot access the ex-Twitter app without one of the best VPNs, together with Meta’s Facebook and Instagram and, since November 21, Bluesky.

«

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OpenAI blamed NYT for tech problem erasing evidence of copyright abuse • Ars Technica

Ashley Belanger:

»

the NYT asked OpenAI to collaborate on a joint filing admitting the deletion occurred. But OpenAI declined, instead filing a separate response calling the newspaper’s accusation that evidence was deleted “exaggerated” and blaming the NYT for the technical problem that triggered the data deleting.

OpenAI denied deleting “any evidence,” instead admitting only that file-system information was “inadvertently removed” after the NYT requested a change that resulted in “self-inflicted wounds.” According to OpenAI, the tech problem emerged because NYT was hoping to speed up its searches and requested a change to the model inspection set-up that OpenAI warned “would yield no speed improvements and might even hinder performance.”

The AI company accused the NYT of negligence during discovery, “repeatedly running flawed code” while conducting searches of URLs and phrases from various newspaper articles and failing to back up their data. Allegedly the change that NYT requested “resulted in removing the folder structure and some file names on one hard drive,” which “was supposed to be used as a temporary cache for storing OpenAI data, but evidently was also used by Plaintiffs to save some of their search results (apparently without any backups).”

Once OpenAI figured out what happened, data was restored, OpenAI said. But the NYT alleged that the only data that OpenAI could recover did “not include the original folder structure and original file names” and therefore “is unreliable and cannot be used to determine where the News Plaintiffs’ copied articles were used to build Defendants’ models.”

In response, OpenAI suggested that the NYT could simply take a few days and re-run the searches, insisting, “contrary to Plaintiffs’ insinuations, there is no reason to think that the contents of any files were lost.” But the NYT does not seem happy about having to retread any part of model inspection, continually frustrated by OpenAI’s expectation that plaintiffs must come up with search terms when OpenAI understands its models best.

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Note how OpenAI is prolonging the process by filing responses rather than just getting on and doing things. It is hoping that it can make the process as elongated as possible so that other cases are decided first, preferably in a direction that suits it.
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Google thinking on Apple ad ambitions revealed in “Project Black Walnut” • Business Insider

Peter Kafka:

»

Apple used to hate the ad business. Now, it looks like it’s taking it more seriously. So, how big could Apple’s ad business get?

That’s a question lots of people in the advertising world have been wondering. And that includes Google. And now, thanks to documents unearthed during Google’s antitrust court case, we can see how Google has been thinking about Apple’s potential as it edges into an industry Google has dominated for decades.

Titled “Operation Black Walnut,” the 2022 report appears to have been assembled by Google strategists to try to imagine what kind of ad business Apple might eventually build out one day.

Apple’s current ad business is mostly confined to selling ads on its App Store search results page. But the report’s authors speculate that Apple could eventually start selling ads that run on other people’s apps and eventually on the web via its Safari browser. It might eventually become a $30bn business, they guesstimate.

But while the document’s authors were trying to imagine how big Apple’s ad business could get, they also wondered if Apple would really want to fully embrace it. Right now, most of the money Apple says it gets from “ads” is really money it gets from Google, which pays Apple upward of $20bn a year to make Google’s search engine the default on Apple’s phones.

“We believe Apple is unlikely to give up search TAC [the annual payments Apple gets from Google] for a $10-$20bn Spotlight Search [Apple’s own search engine] opportunity, unless regulation or Google disrupts the status quo,” the report notes at one point.

Then again, one of the commenters on the document points out, those annual payments — which could account for 15% or more of Apple’s annual profits are “at risk … by regulation or Google’s choice.”

«

Right now that $20bn is the easiest of easy money, but if Google is blocked from paying for search priority in its antitrust trial then perhaps Apple will shift into the ad business seriously. Which wouldn’t be enjoyable.
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Macy’s, Inc. reports preliminary third quarter 2024 results • Macy’s, Inc.

»

Other Corporate Developments

The company also reported today that, during the preparation of its unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the fiscal quarter ended November 2, 2024, it identified an issue related to delivery expenses in one of its accrual accounts. The company consequently initiated an independent investigation.

As a result of the independent investigation and forensic analysis, the company identified that a single employee with responsibility for small package delivery expense accounting intentionally made erroneous accounting accrual entries to hide approximately $132 to $154 million of cumulative delivery expenses from the fourth quarter of 2021 through fiscal quarter ended November 2, 2024.

During this same time period, the company recognized approximately $4.36 billion of delivery expenses. There is no indication that the erroneous accounting accrual entries had any impact on the company’s cash management activities or vendor payments. The individual who engaged in this conduct is no longer employed by the company. The investigation has not identified involvement by any other employee.

The company is delaying its earnings release and conference call relating to the third quarter of 2024 to allow for completion of the independent investigation.

«

Never seen anything like this before in corporate accounts. So want to know what this person was doing, and why there was no oversight. Over 12 quarters, an average of $11-$13m per quarter, or about $130,000 per day. More on this story as we get it.
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Tether has become a massive money laundering tool for Mexican drug traffickers, Feds say • 404 Media

Joseph Cox:

»

A money laundering organization allegedly connected to large seizures of cocaine inside the United States and works with cartels in Mexico and Colombia has moved at least tens of millions of dollars using a string of front businesses, cash drop-offs, and massive transfers of cryptocurrency, according to recently unsealed court records reviewed by 404 Media.

The court records provide deep insight into how alleged drug traffickers have turned to cryptocurrency, and in particular Tether (USDT), as a way to quickly move wealth across borders in recent years. 404 Media also reviewed other recently unsealed court documents which appear to describe another money laundering organization doing much the same thing for Mexican drug cartels including the Sinaloa, showing that cryptocurrencies have become a normal part of large scale drug trafficking in the 21st century. One of the documents even highlights that Tether is sold for cheaper in Mexico because it is known to be from drug proceeds.

One confidential source told investigators “the current trend was to purchase USDT from Mexico-based groups at a cheaper rate than the market price, and then sell the USDT in Colombia at Casa de Cambios [currency exchanges], virtual currency exchanges, over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, or peer-to-peer transactions (P2P). The USDT was sold at a cheaper rate in Mexico because it was known to be drug proceeds.” 

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Cryptocurrency used for drug money laundering! What a surprise!
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Bluesky breaching rules around disclosure of information, says EU • Financial Times

Andy Bounds and Javier Espinoza:

»

Bluesky, the social media site that has grown rapidly following an exodus of users from Elon Musk’s X, is in breach of EU regulations for not disclosing key details about the group, the European Commission said on Monday.

“All platforms in the EU . . . have to have a dedicated page on their website where it says how many users they have in the EU and where they are legally established,” said commission spokesman Thomas Regnier. “This is not the case for Bluesky as of today. This is not followed.”

The intervention comes as thousands of users, including commission president Ursula von der Leyen, have opened Bluesky accounts in recent weeks.

The site has benefited from Musk’s endorsement of US president-elect Donald Trump and decision to reduce content moderation — moves that appear to have driven many academics, journalists and left-leaning politicians to Bluesky.

Regnier said the commission, the EU’s executive arm, had written to the 27 national governments to see “if they can find any trace of Bluesky” such as identifying a EU-based office. It has not yet contacted the company directly, he added. Bluesky did not immediately respond to request for comment.

Since US election day, app usage of Bluesky in the US and UK has jumped by almost 300% to 3.5mn daily users, according to data from research group Similarweb. 

Bluesky is a US public benefit company led by digital rights activist and software engineer Jay Graber. It was founded in 2019 for the purpose of developing a single standard, or protocol, upon which social platforms and other developers could build their own operations. It has come to resemble X with users posting short messages and images.

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The little social network’s all nearly grown up! Just needs a major news event to happen on it.
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China’s telco attacks mean ‘thousands’ of boxes compromised • The Register

Simon Sharwood:

»

The Biden administration on Friday hosted telco execs to chat about China’s recent attacks on the sector, amid revelations that US networks may need mass rebuilds to recover.

Details of the extent of China’s attacks came from senator Mark R Warner, who on Thursday gave both The Washington Post and The New York Times insights into info he’s learned in his role as chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Warner told the Post, “my hair is on fire,” given the severity of China’s attacks on US telcos. The attacks, which started well before the US election, have seen Middle Kingdom operatives establish a persistent presence – and may require the replacement of “literally thousands and thousands and thousands” of switches and routers.

The senator added that China’s activities make Russia-linked incidents like the SolarWinds supply chain incident and the ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline look like “child’s play.”

Warner told The Times the extent of China’s activity remains unknown, and that “The barn door is still wide open, or mostly open.”

The senator, a Democrat who represents Virginia, also confirmed previously known details, claming it was likely Chinese state employees could listen to phone calls – including some involving president-elect Donald Trump – perhaps by using carriers’ wiretapping capabilities. He also said attackers were able to steal substantial quantities of data about calls made on networks.

Most of the senator’s remarks confirm prior guidance from the FBI and the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency about the activities of a Beijing-backed crew dubbed Salt Typhoon that’s accused of compromising, and rummaging around inside, US telco networks for many months.

«

At this point the entire US network infrastructure seems like Swiss cheese.
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Bird flu virus detected in California raw milk • Los Angeles Times

Susanne Rust:

»

State health officials said Sunday that bird flu virus was detected in a retail sample of raw milk from the Fresno-based Raw Farm dairy.

The sample was collected by officials with the Santa Clara County public health office, who have been testing raw milk products from retail stores “as a second line of consumer protection.”

County officials identified the virus in “one sample of raw milk purchased at a retail outlet” on Nov. 21, according to statements from both the state and the county. The county contacted stores on Friday and recommended they pull the raw milk from sale. The test results were confirmed on Saturday by the California Animal Health and Food Safety Laboratory System at UC Davis.

“This isn’t surprising, given how quickly H5N1 seems to be spreading among farms in California and given the fact that these outbreaks on farms are being discovered in large part due to bulk testing of raw milk from farms,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University in Providence, R.I. “What we don’t know is how much risk H5N1 poses to people that drink unpasteurized, infected milk.”

«

Don’t worry, RFK Jr thinks there’s too much “suppression” of unpasteurised milk, so we can find out how much risk quite soon. (Thanks Joe S for the link.)
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• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?

Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.


Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified

Start Up No.2340: reading past the headlines, what Bluesky needs next, how people are using chatbots, suicide hold music, and more


Red squirrel or grey squirrel? An AI system is being used to distinguish the two, and help the red ones. CC-licensed photo by Shawn Nystrand on Flickr.

You can sign up to receive each day’s Start Up post by email. You’ll need to click a confirmation link, so no spam.

A selection of 10 links for you. Distinguishable. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


Social media users probably won’t read beyond this headline, researchers say • Penn State University

Ashley Wenners Herron:

»

Congratulations. Reading this far into the story is a feat not many will accomplish, especially if shared on Facebook, according to a team led by Penn State researchers. In an analysis of more than 35 million public posts containing links that were shared extensively on the social media platform between 2017 and 2020, the researchers found that around 75% of the shares were made without the posters clicking the link first. Of these, political content from both ends of the spectrum was shared without clicking more often than politically neutral content.

The findings, which the researchers said suggest that social media users tend to merely read headlines and blurbs rather than fully engage with core content, appeared on Nov. 19 in Nature Human Behavior. While the data were limited to Facebook, the researchers said the findings could likely map to other social media platforms and help explain why misinformation can spread so quickly online.

“It was a big surprise to find out that more than 75% of the time, the links shared on Facebook were shared without the user clicking through first,” said corresponding author S. Shyam Sundar, Evan Pugh University Professor and the James P. Jimirro Professor of Media Effects at Penn State. “I had assumed that if someone shared something, they read and thought about it, that they’re supporting or even championing the content. You might expect that maybe a few people would occasionally share content without thinking it through, but for most shares to be like this? That was a surprising, very scary finding.”

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I feel that the good professor can’t have spent any actual time on social media, because if he had then he’d know for sure that people share articles willy-nilly, and the headline is the start and finish of their examination of it. Twitter introduced an element back in mid-2020 asking if you wanted to read the article first if you didn’t seem to have read it first. Hard to say whether it has really made a lot of difference, especially since links have been downgraded on X, and Musk doesn’t bother to do the most cursory examination of what he amplifies.
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Twitter’s heir apparent isn’t X or Threads — it’s Bluesky • The Verge

Jay Peters:

»

Things haven’t been perfect for Bluesky; the platform has had some hiccups, seemingly due to the influx of people, and one major outage due to a cut fiber cable. But Meta has clearly been feeling the heat.

Last week, the day after Bluesky touted its 15 million total users, Threads boss Adam Mosseri shared that Threads had already surpassed 15 million signups for November alone. (CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently shared that the platform has 275 million monthly users.) And Meta has aggressively introduced some significant Threads changes, including its own version of custom feeds, a major change to make the For You feed show more from people you follow, and some big improvements to search.

Even if Bluesky is my preferred place right now, it’s still comparatively small to Threads and X. It’s unclear if people will stick with it over the long term, especially since Meta seems committed to making Threads its next billion-user social network. And X is still going to matter, given that many companies post updates on the platform and because owner Elon Musk is set to have enormous power in the Trump administration.

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I think – if Bluesky does want to become an authoritative source – then it needs to add verification of users, and then perhaps to amplify them. But it’s still in its early phase; it hasn’t had its Miracle In The Hudson moment.
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How WSJ readers use AI: from brainstorming to learning a new language and more • WSJ

Demetria Gallegos:

»

we asked Wall Street Journal readers: Tell us how you have used ChatGPT and other generative AI tools in your daily life, both personal and professional.

Here’s what they said.

• …I use Perplexity for understanding background to the news, for satisfying my curiosities about science, and sometimes to solve household maintenance issues. For example, I recently became interested in amateur radio astronomy. I researched what computing power I might need to pursue the hobby but got bogged down until I wrote one question to Perplexity AI. From its response I found I will need only slightly more processing power than I had expected. The bottom line for me is: For $20/month, I can save time and money by making a better-informed decision. I use it about 15 times a month.

• I tried using ChatGPT to suggest improvements on a watercolor I painted. First, it complimented the painting and then gave me six suggestions (all good) on how to make it even better. Among the tips, it wanted me to increase the contrast where the dock of my boatyard painting met the water, or where the building cast shadows. It also suggested I add a small foreground element such as a canoe or a few floating leaves to guide a viewer’s eye into the painting and add a sense of scale. Its final comment was “happy painting.”

•…My daughter and I were watching a History Channel program on the Roman Republic, a segment talking about the Roman legions. She’s a fan of a rather violent pseudo-historical series called “The Vikings,” and at the end of our program she turned to me and asked, “If the Romans and the Vikings had a war, who would win?” I said, ”Let’s ask ChatGPT.”

We got more than I bargained for—extended analysis about this hypothetical matchup, including specifics of battlefields and logistics. It analyzed the Romans’ respective strengths, including organization and discipline, training, sophistication of tactics, engineering and weapons. The Vikings were credited with their guerrilla tactics, naval skills, ferocity and skill in one-on-one combat.

ChatGPT concluded the Romans would likely win. My daughter was unconvinced her fearsome Vikings could be defeated.

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Conservationists turn to AI in battle to save red squirrels • BBC News

Zoe Kleinman:

»

An artificial intelligence (AI) tool which has been trained to tell the difference between grey and red squirrels could be “an absolute game changer”, conservationists say.

The system, called Squirrel Agent, has been trained on thousands of images of the animals allowing it to tell them apart with 97% accuracy, its developer says.

It can then be used to automatically control access to squirrel feeders – with only reds being allowed into those containing food, and only greys into those where food has been replaced with contraceptive paste.

“It’s a real showcase of what AI can do,” said Emma McClenaghan, co-founder of Genysys Engine, which developed the tool. “It’s working in real time to do a task that we don’t have enough [human] volunteers to do.”

Squirrel Agent is currently being tested in sites around the UK in conjunction with five wildlife charities.
Genysys Engine hopes it will eventually be used much more widely not just with squirrels but with other species which would benefit from sophisticated digital monitoring.

Ian Glendinning, from Northern Red Squirrels – one of the conservation groups involved in the trial – told the BBC that, for the animals he is trying to protect, help from technology was urgently needed.

“We are in the bar of the last chance saloon, and the landlord has just called last orders,” he said.

«

Interesting idea. Grey squirrels are carriers of a virus that kills red squirrels, so maybe we also need the AI feeders to inject the red squirrels with a vaccine? Otherwise it’s hard to see things changing that much.

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Hold on, the suicide counsellor will be with you presently • Radiolab

Simon Adler:

»

Two years ago, the United States did something amazing. In response to the mental health crisis the federal government launched 988 – a nationwide, easy to remember phone number that anyone can call anytime and talk to a counselor. It was 911 but for mental health and they hoped that it would save lives. However, if you call 988 today the first thing you hear isn’t a sympathetic counselor. What you hear is hold music.

Today, the story of the highest stakes hold music in the universe, the three men who created suicide prevention and the two women trying to fix it. 

«

You can listen to the podcast, or read the transcript.

Initially, the hold music was “snazzy jazz music”. Really you have to listen to it to understand the nuances.

(And no, it wasn’t the M*A*S*H* theme.)
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WhatsApp gains voice message transcripts • MacRumors

Juli Clover:

»

Popular Meta-owned messaging app WhatsApp has announced a new transcription feature that’s designed to provide you with a transcript of a voice message received from a friend or family member.

WhatsApp says that voice message transcripts are designed for instances when you’re in a loud place and can’t stop to listen to a traditional voice message. Transcripts are created on-device, are end-to-end encrypted, and aren’t shared with WhatsApp.

WhatsApp users can go to Settings > Chats > Voice Message Transcripts to turn transcriptions on and off and to select a preferred transcript language. A voice message can be transcribed by long pressing on it and tapping on the “transcribe” option.

The voice message transcript feature has been available to WhatsApp beta testers for months now, but it is now ready to start rolling out to all users.

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Smart idea. Transcription is going to become something that within a year or two is utterly routine, after decades and decades when it seemed just in reach. (In passing, my version hasn’t yet got this option.)
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Sweden’s Northvolt files for bankruptcy, in blow to Europe’s EV ambitions • Reuters

Dietrich Knauth, Marie Mannes and Terje Solsvik:

»

Northvolt, the Swedish maker of battery cells for electric vehicles, said on Thursday it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US, dealing a blow to Europe’s hopes that its most developed battery player would reduce Western car makers’ reliance on Chinese rivals.

Northvolt said it has only enough cash to support operations for about a week and said it has secured $100m in new financing for the bankruptcy process. It said operations will continue as normal during the bankruptcy.

“Northvolt’s liquidity picture has become dire,” the company said in its Chapter 11 petition, filed in US Bankruptcy Court in Houston. The company, which has operations in California, has about $30m of cash, which can support its operations for only about a week. It has $5.8bn in debts.

Northvolt, which employs around 6,600 staff across seven countries, said it expects to complete the restructuring by the first quarter of 2025.

Northvolt transformed in a matter of months from Europe’s best shot at a homegrown electric-vehicle battery champion to a company struggling to stay afloat by slimming down, hobbled by production problems, the loss of a major customer and a lack of funding.

Europe has been hoping that Northvolt would reduce Western car makers’ reliance on Chinese rivals such as battery maker CATL and EV and battery maker BYD.

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They seem to be blaming both lack of demand and missed targets, which seems contradictory.
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Kate Nash says her OnlyFans photos will earn more than tour • BBC News

Ian Youngs:

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Nash, who released her fifth studio album in June, also told fans on Instagram: “No need to stream my music, I’m good for the 0.003 of a penny per stream thanks.”

Last month, fellow singer Lily Allen revealed she makes more money by selling pictures of her feet on OnlyFans than she does from Spotify streams.

Meanwhile, in recent months, acts including Rachel Chinouriri, Ratboy and The Duke Spirit singer Liela Moss have all cancelled tours, blaming the costs.

Nash highlighted a survey from recording and rehearsal studio network Pirate, which said most artists have not seen an increase in gig fees in recent years despite a rise in ticket prices.

“Festival prices and ticket prices have gone up drastically, but the musicians’ wage hasn’t,” she said. “So you might be playing a venue that you’ve played multiple times and you can sell it out, [but] you’re getting the same fee that you did 10 years ago, probably. But all the other costs have gone up.”

Some corporations make big profits from music, as do a “select few” artists, she said. “But the majority are losing money, and we are also creating an environment where the industry is saying, we don’t want diversity in music, because we don’t want working class people to be able to afford to do this.”

Musicians could follow a lead from people who earn a living from selling sexual content on sites like OnlyFans, she suggested. “You’ve got all this control, and you’re deciding what you want to do and how you want to do it, and people want to pay you for it.

“We just haven’t taught any of those lessons to anyone with music and art – that art is so valuable and so worthwhile in our lives and so meaningful. We’re totally happy to devalue it.

“Where can we learn from the sex workers? Maybe we can learn something from this industry. How do we get empowered as artists and take a bit more control?”

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That point about the cut going to artists not rising is where the Competition & Markets Authority should be getting involved. Ticketing companies are raking it in.
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Source: Google has canceled the Pixel Tablet 2 – but not the Tab 3? • Android Authority

Mishaal Rahman:

»

Android Authority has learned that Google has cancelled the Pixel Tablet 2, the presumed name of Google’s second-generation Pixel Tablet. This is disappointing for Pixel fans who were waiting for Google to refresh its first-generation Pixel Tablet with a newer chipset, a better camera, and, more importantly, an official keyboard accessory.

It’s also surprising to hear because it might suggest that Google is giving up on its tablet ambitions entirely, considering a separate report published last week claimed that Google is also killing the Pixel Tablet 3. However, we have reason to believe that the device cited in yesterday’s report is actually the Pixel Tablet 2, and not the third-generation tablet after all.

Last week, I shared what I learned about the Pixel Tablet 2 from a source within Google. I deemed this source to be very credible given my past history with them as well as the fact that they were able to share unreleased images of the device with me (which I obviously did not publish to protect their identity). After the publication of this article, however, I learned from my source that Google had decided to cancel its plans to release the device, citing concerns that the company would lose money on it.

On Wednesday, Android Headlines published an article claiming that Google has canceled development of the Pixel Tablet 3 and not the Pixel Tablet 2 that Google was actively working on. I found this report to be strange, considering that Google has almost assuredly not started working on the Pixel Tablet 3 while the Pixel Tablet 2 is still in an early stage of the product development lifecycle. I had heard that the device that had been cancelled was the very device I had reported on last week, and that device is almost certainly not the Pixel Tablet 3.

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Google’s hate-hate relationship with tablets continues: aside from the Nexus 7in tablet, in 2012, its first effort – which was a success – it has always struggled to find a reason to have tablets in its lineup. There is talk of “merging-but-not-merging” ChromeOS and Android, though who knows how that’s going to go.
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First case of bird flu infection in a US child confirmed in California, officials say • Associated Press via PBS News

Mike Stobbe and JoNel Aleccia:

»

Health officials on Friday confirmed bird flu in a California child — the first reported case in a US minor.

The child had mild symptoms, was treated with antiviral medication and is recovering, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in announcing the test results. State officials have said the child attends day care and lives in Alameda County, which includes Oakland and surrounding communities, but released no other details.

The infection brings the reported number of US bird flu cases this year to 55, including 29 in California, the CDC said. Most were farmworkers who tested positive with mild symptoms.

One exception was an adult in Missouri who did not work at a farm and had no known contact with an infected animal. It remains a mystery how that person was infected — health officials have said there was no evidence of it spreading between people.

A British Columbia teen also was recently hospitalized with bird flu, Canadian officials have said.

H5N1 bird flu has been spreading widely in the U.S. among wild birds, poultry and a number of other animals over the last few years.

It began spreading in US dairy cattle in March. California has become the center of that outbreak, with 402 infected herds detected there since August. That’s 65% of the 616 herds confirmed with the virus in 15 states.

«

What is faintly interesting is that the story says “US child” rather than “American child”, which to me subtly implies that this is the child of an immigrant worker. The CDC statement is also a little cagey, and doesn’t make it absolutely clear whether the child worked on a farm, though the strong implication is that they didn’t. In which case it’s a human carrier transmitting it.
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• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?

Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.


Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified

Start Up No.2339: Google pushes big sites out of “reviews”, a personal AI Jesus, building a better drone, bird flu redux, and more


The spork’s continued existence, in the liminal place between useless and annoying, remains baffling. CC-licensed photo by Karl Baron on Flickr.

You can sign up to receive each day’s Start Up post by email. You’ll need to click a confirmation link, so no spam.


It’s Friday, so there’s another post due at the Social Warming Substack at about 0845 UK time.


A selection of 9 links for you. Cutting edge. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


Google stops letting sites like Forbes rule search for “Best CBD Gummies” • Ars Technica

Kevin Purdy:

»

Updating our site reputation abuse policy” is how Google, in wondrously opaque fashion, announced yesterday that big changes have come to some big websites, especially those that rely on their domain authority to promote lucrative third-party product recommendations.

If you’ve searched for reviews and seen results that make you ask why so many old-fashioned news sites seem to be “reviewing” products lately—especially products outside that site’s expertise—that’s what Google is targeting.

“This is a tactic where third-party content is published on a host site in an attempt to take advantage of the host’s already-established ranking signals,” Google’s post on its Search Central blog reads. “The goal of this tactic is for the content to rank better than it could otherwise on a different site, and leads to a bad search experience for users.”

Search firm Sistrix cited the lost traffic to the third-party review content inside Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Fortune, and Time as worth $7.5m last week, according to AdWeek. Search rankings dropped by up to 97% at Time’s affiliate review site, Time Stamped, and 43% at Forbes Advisor. The drops are isolated to the affiliate subdomains of the sites, so their news-minded primary URLs still rank where relevant.

The “site reputation abuse” Google is targeting takes many forms, but it has one common theme: using an established site’s domain history to quietly sell things. Forbes, a well-established business news site, has an ownership stake in Forbes Marketplace (named Forbes Advisor in site copy) but does not fully own it.

Under the strength of Forbes’ long-existing and well-linked site, Forbes Marketplace/Advisor has dominated the search term “best cbd gummies” for “an eternity,” according to SEO analyst Lily Ray. Forbes has similarly dominated “best pet insurance,” and long came up as the second result for “how to get rid of roaches,” as detailed in a blog post by Lars Lofgren. If people click on this high-ranking result, and then click on a link to buy a product or request a roach removal consultation, Forbes typically gets a cut.

Forbes Marketplace had seemingly also provided SEO-minded review services to CNN and USA Today, as detailed by Lofgren. Lofgren’s term for this business, “Parasite SEO,” took hold in corners critical of the trend.

«

Long overdue, but at least it’s happening.
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DOJ asks judge to force Google to sell Chrome as remedy in landmark antitrust case • Business Insider via Yahoo

Katherine Tangalakis-Lippert:

»

Because of Google’s size, the popularity of Chrome, and the profits its search wing drives for the company, it would be a historic development if they were ultimately required to divest themselves of Chrome, Eric Chaffee, a business and tech law professor at Case Western Reserve University, told BI.

Such a sale would be a multibillion-dollar proposal, and it’s not immediately clear who a potential buyer would be.

“Google could receive proceeds in the range of $15 billion to $20 billion,” Peter Cohan, an associate professor of management practice at Babson College, told BI. “But if Google is able to control the company that buys Chrome, the impact of selling the business would be minimal. What matters most to Google is all the data Google collects and uses for advertising.”

Neil Chilson, a former acting chief technologist at the FTC, told BI that asking Mehta to force Google to sell Chrome is the DOJ’s way of swinging for the fences — but he expects the final remedies to land somewhere short of complete divestment.

“It’s a pretty fantastical ask,” Chilson said. “I don’t think that this remedy really tackles the area in which Judge Mehta found liability, which is for these exclusive contracts, and so this seems like a very aggressive ask — one that doesn’t really fix the problem that the judge said was creating the competitive problem in the first place.”

«

Stripping out Chrome would mean ChromeOS would have to pay for Chrome, and would mean Android (still owned by Google?) would have to pick a browser – hmm, wonder if it would be Chrome? – so ChromeCo might eke out a living, but if the DoJ also prevents Google paying to be default search (also expected) then a whole lot of money falls out of the system. Tim Cook must be sweating.
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Put a fork in the spork • Zócalo Public Square

Ken Albala:

»

Positivists since the 19th-century French philosopher Auguste Comte have considered material progress an inevitable feature of human history. The human condition always continues to improve in direct proportion to the advancement of science and technological innovation.

A single commonplace object proves Comte’s assertion absurd and fallacious: the spork. 

The spork is a prime example of the debasement of our species. Everyone who has ever tried to use it realizes the idiocy of the contraption. Its design—a shallow bowl with small projecting truncated tines—precludes any effective use as either a spoon or a fork. Instead, it combines the worst features of both utensils: Liquid spills through the diminutive tines before soup hits the lips, and the tines themselves are too blunt to easily puncture and convey to the mouth anything that might be considered solid food.

Why then are we subjected to this disaster on a regular basis? And what could set us free from its poorly manufactured grip?

…Perhaps the success of the spork may also be attributed to the fact that Americans never really became comfortable using a knife and fork. We tend to cut food with a knife in the right hand and a fork in the left, and then trade the utensils in order to eat. We also keep the tines of the fork upward like a scoop, unlike in Europe, where the fork stays in the left hand and the tines point downward. This is apparently because Americans first began to use forks in the 17th century, before they fully evolved in Europe. In any case, it might explain why many people were happy jettisoning the fork entirely in favor of the spork.

The spork that’s become ubiquitous over the last few decades—the plastic spork—is what deserves the full brunt of our opprobrium. Preeminently disposable, destined for landfills and the stomachs of defenseless sea creatures, plastic is the single most heinous material humans have ever invented. This is not only because of its detrimental environmental effects but from a purely gastronomic point of view. It is the taste of industrial waste.

«

At The Onion, they think of headlines and then write the story to fit. One which apparently never quite made the grade was “Man knifed with spork”. May we never see its like again.
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How to produce a kamikaze drone • Statecraft

Santi Ruiz interviews Chris Anderson, formerly with the US DoD’s Asymmetric Warfare Group:

»

SR: Will you describe more of the characteristics of the solution that you guys ended up with in the Switchblade? It’s pretty remarkable to me that in 2010 or 2011, this fairly advanced machine that weighed less than six pounds could be launched from a tube on the ground and controlled from a laptop. 

CA: The story of the Switchblade is really the story of a company and its vision for the future. That company, AeroVironment, also makes the Raven unmanned aerial system, the Wasp, the Puma. But around 2008 and 2009, they invested a lot of their own money into the Switchblade. There was a requirement for it: to be able to take out four targets inside of a pickup truck, a Hilux truck. Hilux trucks are the number one choice for all terrorists today, but particularly the Taliban. I don’t understand why we don’t have them here in America — they’re a good truck. 

But anyway, the idea was low collateral damage. We needed the capability to precisely, from kilometers away, reach out and touch targets like a guy on a mountainside, a dude on a rooftop.

SR: Askonas says that you could remotely calibrate the warhead for different burst patterns, and that it could take out a vehicle in traffic without harming anyone around it. 

CA: It’s pretty accurate. I still have “classified PTSD,” so I’m always worried about what I can say, but yes, you could calibrate the warhead and the blast pattern. It had a warhead with what’s called CL 20, which is a special kind of explosive, and inside that warhead was tungsten, say 200 pieces of tungsten fragmentation. That’s a really heavy metal, and they were in very small diamond patterns. 

«

Fascinating interview (this is the transcript of the podcast) about the evolution of the drones we now hear about patrolling behind the lines in Ukraine.
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Church in Switzerland is using an AI-powered Jesus hologram to take confession • Daily Mail Online

Wiliam Hunter:

»

As part of an art project called ‘Deus in Machina’ (God in a Machine) St Peter’s Church in Lucerne has installed an AI-powered Jesus hologram to take confessions.

Worshipers simply voice their concerns and questions to get a response from the digitally-rendered face of Jesus Christ.

At least two-thirds of people who spoke to AI Jesus came out of the confessional reporting having had a ‘spiritual’ experience. One impressed worshiper told news outlet DW: ‘I was surprised, it was so easy, and though it’s a machine, it gave me so much advice.’

While the installation is only temporary, St Peter’s Chapel says that similar chatbots could one day take on some of the responsibilities of church pastors.

However, not everyone is quite so impressed with some visitors calling the avatar’s advice ‘generic’ and branding it as ‘a gimmick’.

Visitors to this futuristic shrine sit in a confessional booth from which a screen showing the face of Jesus can be seen through the grate. As the visitor asks their questions an AI interprets their words and formulates answers, animating the face so it moves in time with computer-generated speech.

AI Jesus is even equipped with the ability to speak 100 different languages to cater to Lucerne’s many visiting tourists.

Upon entering, the worshiper is greeted by AI Jesus intoning the message: ‘Do not disclose personal information under any circumstances, use this service at your own risk, press the button if you accept.’ From this point on, it is up to the individual to interact with the AI in any way they like by pressing the button and speaking aloud.

Many who came to see the AI avatar reported coming with questions about scripture or seeking spiritual advice. One visitor says: ‘I asked about the spiral of violence, how to break one. The answer: through prayer and not seeking retribution.’

«

Eliza lives!
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Misinformation expert cites non-existent sources in Minnesota deep fake case • Minnesota Reformer

Christopher Ingraham:

»

A leading misinformation expert is being accused of citing non-existent sources to defend Minnesota’s new law banning election misinformation.

Professor Jeff Hancock, founding director of the Stanford Social Media Lab, is “well-known for his research on how people use deception with technology,” according to his Stanford biography. 

At the behest of Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, Hancock recently submitted an affidavit supporting new legislation that bans the use of so-called “deep fake” technology to influence an election. The law is being challenged in federal court by a conservative YouTuber and Republican state Rep. Mary Franson of Alexandria for violating First Amendment free speech protections.

Hancock’s expert declaration in support of the deep fake law cites numerous academic works. But several of those sources do not appear to exist, and the lawyers challenging the law say they appear to have been made up by artificial intelligence software like ChatGPT.

For instance, the declaration cites a study titled “The Influence of Deepfake Videos on Political Attitudes and Behavior,” and says that it was published in the Journal of Information Technology & Politics in 2023. But no study by that name appears in that journal; academic databases don’t have any record of it existing; and the specific journal pages referenced contain two entirely different articles.

«

I am now officially begging you not to use chatbots of any ilk as search engines. Absolutely begging you. And where search engines stick a chatbot on the top (looking at you, Google), ignore that too.
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Bird flu in Canada may have mutated to become more transmissible to humans • The Guardian

Melody Schreiber:

»

The Canadian teen first developed symptoms on 2 November and was hospitalized at the British Columbia children’s hospital on 8 November. The child is still in critical condition with acute respiratory distress – a serious lung condition that can be fatal.

Preliminary sequencing of the H5N1 variant sickening the teenager showed a potential mutation on the genomic spot known to make people more susceptible to the virus.

That could indicate that H5N1 has the capability to become more like a human virus, rather than an avian virus, but it is also not clear yet whether this change is meaningful and more dangerous to people, experts said.

The virus may have mutated over the course of the teen’s illness; additional sequencing could reveal more about its evolution.

“Often it’s not just one thing that is going to confer that ability” to infect humans more effectively, said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan.

“It’s not quite clear what the real-world implications are going to be, but certainly all of these things are a warning sign,” Rasmussen said. “We really do need to pay attention to this, and we really do need to try to reduce more human infections as much as we possibly can.”

The particular variant of H5N1 circulating among birds in British Columbia and the north-western US appeared over the past few months, several years after bird flu was first found in North America, Webby said. The variant also sickened 11 workers in Washington state who were killing infected poultry, though those workers did not have the possible mutation detected in the teenager.

«

Narrowed eyes watching brief.
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Could avian flu cause our next pandemic? • MedPage Today

Claire Dunavan is a professor of medicine and infectious diseases at UCLA:

»

it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee. Or, for a true reality check, just scan the Department of Agriculture’s frequently-updated map and tables naming the many animals that have tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the US since May 2022.

Finding influenza A/H5N1 in wild birds and waterfowl and poultry is nothing new, of course. During 2024, however, our country has seen its first-ever multi-state outbreak in dairy cows expressing milk heavily tainted with the virus, as well as illness, deaths, or detections in cats, goats, alpaca, skunks, and house mice, among others. The latest species found to harbor A/H5N1 was a backyard pig in Oregonopens in a new tab or window. Once euthanized, its tissues teeming with virus fueled further unease because pigs are classic mixing vessels in which human and avian flu viruses can recombine and form new, virulent strains.

Now for some less ominous news: the viral strain currently circulating in American dairy cows and poultry has not yet caused serious disease in people. Thus far, based on very limited testing, roughly four dozen A/H5N1 infections almost equally divided between dairy and poultry workers have been mild or even asymptomatic. As a result, CDC continues to state that the riskopens in a new tab or window to the general public is low.

Having said that, there is now a critically ill teenageropens in a new tab or window up in Canada infected with H5N1 whose source of exposure is unknown. In addition, no knowledgeable expert would deny that influenza viruses are notoriously unpredictable, having caused more pandemics than any other pathogen over the last 500 yearsopens in a new tab or window. Now factor in the modern challenge of getting Big Agriculture, government, and public health to work hand-in-hand on control measures while communicating clear, sensible advice to everyday folks already exhausted by COVID, a few of whom also believe that raw milk is Nature’s perfect food, discounting its previously proven hazardsopens in a new tab or window as mere hogwash.

«

Ah yes, RFK Jr and his love of unpasteurised milk. Who’s to say that after he caused scores of deaths in Papua New Guinea by opposing measles vaccines that he shouldn’t go for the big one and give the next pandemic a helping hand? (Thanks Joe S for the link.)
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Elon Musk asked people to upload their health data. X users obliged • The New York Times

Elizabeth Passarella:

»

Over the past few weeks, users on X have been submitting X-rays, MRIs, CT scans and other medical images to Grok, the platform’s artificial intelligence chatbot, asking for diagnoses. The reason: Elon Musk, X’s owner, suggested it.

“This is still early stage, but it is already quite accurate and will become extremely good,” Musk said in a post. The hope is that if enough users feed the AI their scans, it will eventually get good at interpreting them accurately. Patients could get faster results without waiting for a portal message, or use Grok as a second opinion.

Some users have shared Grok’s misses, like a broken clavicle that was misindentified as a dislocated shoulder. Others praised it: “Had it check out my brain tumor, not bad at all,” one user wrote alongside a brain scan. Some doctors have even played along, curious to test whether a chatbot could confirm their own findings.

Although there’s been no similar public callout from Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s ChatGPT, people can submit medical images to those tools, too.

The decision to share information as sensitive as your colonoscopy results with an A.I. chatbot has alarmed some medical privacy experts.

“This is very personal information, and you don’t exactly know what Grok is going to do with it,” said Bradley Malin, a professor of biomedical informatics at Vanderbilt University who has studied machine learning in health care.

«

I hardly think that Grok is going to send people round to your house if you upload something showing you’ve got a broken leg; though I suppose the American fear is that somehow insurance companies will demand the imagery or analysis. If all these AI tools get to see more images, that should be useful, though interpretation is far more tricky. (I am tempted to try uploading a recent MRI to ChatGPT for fun, to see how it compares with the human interpretation I already have.)
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• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?

Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.


Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified

Start Up No.2338: Nvidia revenue keeps rocketing, the suspicious robot “kidnapping”, global internet growth stalls, and more


An experiment by Google has used mobile phones to map the ionosphere, improving GPS accuracy. CC-licensed photo by Mike Lewinski on Flickr.

You can sign up to receive each day’s Start Up post by email. You’ll need to click a confirmation link, so no spam.


There’s another post coming this week at the Social Warming Substack on Friday at 0845 UK time. Free signup.


A selection of 9 links for you. Location, location, location. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


Google uses millions of phones to map Earth’s ionosphere and improve GPS • Nature

Elizabeth Gibney:

»

For the first time, researchers have used real-time data from around 40 million mobile phones to map conditions in the ionosphere — a region of the upper atmosphere in which some of the air molecules are ionized. Such crowdsourced signals could improve satellite navigation, especially in swathes of the world where data are otherwise scarce, including Africa, South America and South Asia.

The proof-of-principle study, by a team at Google, was published in Nature on 13 November.

“It’s an amazing data set,” says Anthea Coster, an atmospheric physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. “It fills in the map a lot, in areas where we desperately need more information.”

Phone data could reduce GPS errors by 10–20% in some areas, and more in underserved regions, estimates Ningbo Wang, an atmospheric physicist at the Aerospace Information Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing. Even with adjustments, interference from the ionosphere remains a challenge, he says, especially during solar storms that trigger uneven conditions in the ionosphere. “The results presented are truly impressive.”

When the air is partly ionized, freely moving electrons slightly slow down the radio signals travelling to Earth from GPS and other navigation satellites. This can affect the nanosecond-precision timing that satellite navigation devices use to pinpoint their locations, with potentially serious impacts on aeroplane landings and autonomous vehicles.

Real-time maps of the density of these electrons are commonly used to correct for fluctuations in the ionosphere. Engineers create the maps using data from ground-based receiver stations, which can detect the arrival times of two different frequencies of radio waves received from the same satellite. Electrons in the ionosphere slow down low-frequency waves more than they do high-frequency ones, by a nanosecond or so. This difference reveals the density of the electrons the wave passed through on its way to a receiver.

«

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Nvidia posts record quarterly revenue • Axios

Hope King:

»

Nvidia on Wednesday afternoon projected strong demand for its products in Q4, the first period to include sales of its new Blackwell AI chip.

It’s the latest sign that businesses continue to crave more computing power for emerging AI projects.

Sales for the current quarter are projected to reach $37.5bn, slightly above average Wall Street expectations of about $37bn.

Meeting that target would represent roughly 70% growth from a year ago’s $22.1bn. “Blackwell demand is staggering, and we are racing to scale supply to meet the incredible demand customers are placing on us,” Nvidia CFO Colette Kress told analysts Wednesday afternoon.

This is Nvidia’s first earnings report and call since the US presidential election. Some investors are already worried about the potential impact on Nvidia’s business if new tariffs or greater China export restrictions are put in place.

Nvidia’s outsized impact on the overall stock market means investor sentiment on the stock will spillover to other sectors in the days to come.

«

Nvidia’s revenue exploded in summer of 2023, after years of noodling along fairly quietly making gamers and then cryptocoiners happy. Making shovels for the AI goldrush is good business.
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Robot manufacturer has 12 robots ‘kidnapped’ from showroom by another robot • Oddity Central

“Spooky”:

»

Viral footage captured by CCTV cameras at a robotics company showroom shows 12 large robots being ‘kidnapped by another manufacturer’s robot that convinced them to “quit their jobs” and follow it.

For the past week, Chinese social media has been abuzz about a bizarre incident that reportedly occurred back in august at a robotics company showroom in Shanghai, but was only made public recently. Footage captured by the venue’s surveillance cameras shows a small robot making its way into the showroom at night and slowly rolling over to a bunch of larger robots before engaging in a dialogue with them. After asking them if they’re working overtime, the little robot manages to somehow pursuade two of the other robots to “come home” with it, and then the remaining 10 robots follow them. In the beginning, the video was deemed staged and amusing by most viewers, but then the Shanghai robotics company came out and admitted that its robots had indeed been “kidnapped” by a robot created by another manufacturer.

«

There is video with this. I’m going to say it’s complete and utter junk and done as some sort of guerilla marketing. But this is probably going to get spread around, so let’s head it off at the pass.
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IMG_0001: all the YouTube videos iPhones sent untitled

Riley Walz:

»

Between 2009 and 2012, iPhones had a built-in “Send to YouTube” button in the Photos app. Many of these uploads kept their default IMG_XXXX filenames, creating a time capsule of raw, unedited moments from random lives.

Inspired by Ben Wallace, I made a bot that crawled YouTube and found five million of these videos! Watch them below, ordered randomly.

«

From when the internet was not just young, but nascent. YouTube only started in 2005.
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The global growth rate for mobile internet subscribers has stalled • Rest of World

Khadija Alam and Russell Brandom:

»

A recent survey from Global System for Mobile Communications Association Intelligence (GSMA), the research wing of a U.K.-based organization that represents mobile operators around the world, found that 4.6 billion people across the globe are now connected to mobile internet — or roughly 57% of the world’s population. 

Now, the rate of new mobile internet subscriber growth is slowing. From 2015 to 2021, the survey consistently found over 200 million coming online through mobile devices around the world each year. But in the last two years, that number has dropped to 160 million. Rest of World analysis of that data found that a number of developing countries are plateauing in the number of mobile internet subscribers.

That suggests that in countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Mexico, the easiest populations to get online have already logged on, and getting the rest of the population on mobile internet will continue to be a challenge. GSMA collects data by surveying a nationally representative sample of people in each country, and then it correlates the results with similar studies.

…In countries including China, the U.S., and Singapore, a high share of the population is already connected to mobile internet — 80%, 81%, and 93%, respectively. So it’s no surprise that the rate of mobile internet subscriptions has slowed.

But the rate of new users has also slowed in countries including Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Pakistan — where only 37%, 34%, and 24% of the population currently use mobile internet.

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All the memes they’re missing! Oh, the humanity!
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The cost of Her • Tomasz Tunguz

Tunguz is a venture capitalist:

»

What it cost to have an assistant with you like in the movie Her?

The cost of using AI has dropped precipitously, an order of magnitude every year.

If the average American picks up their phone 144 times per day & engages with an assistant, each time for four interactions every day of a month, an assistant like Her would cost about 78 cents in inference cost.1

I’m not taking into account any of the additional costs associated with delivering such a product. Assuming a commercial vendor would 10x the price, it’s still $7 per month, less than half of a Netflix subscription.

«

But but but: what sort of quality of Her would it be? Possibly it’s time to rewatch the film and be reminded of the qualities that that software had (apart from Scarlet Johansson’s voice, of course).
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Danish military says it’s staying close to Chinese ship after data cable breaches • Reuters

Johan Ahlander:

»

The Danish military said on Wednesday that it was staying close to a Chinese ship currently sitting idle in Danish waters, days after two fibre-optic data telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea were severed.

Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 was anchored in the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden on Wednesday, with a Danish navy patrol ship at anchor nearby, MarineTraffic vessel tracking data showed. “The Danish Defence can confirm that we are present in the area near the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3,” the military said in a post on social media X, adding it had no further comments.

It is quite rare for Denmark’s military to comment publicly on individual vessels travelling in Danish waters. It did not mention the cable breaches or say why it was staying with the ship. Swedish police later told news agency TT they were also interested in the Yi Peng 3, adding there might be other vessels of interest to Sweden’s investigation.

The Chinese ship left the Russian port of Ust-Luga on Nov. 15 and was in the areas where the cable damages occurred, according to traffic data, which showed other ships to have been in the areas too.
One cable running between Sweden and Lithuania was cut on Sunday and another one between Finland and Germany was severed less than 24 hours later on Monday.

The breaches happened in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone and Swedish prosecutors started a preliminary investigation on Tuesday on suspicion of possible sabotage. Swedish Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin told Reuters on Tuesday that the country’s armed forces and coastguard had picked up ship movements that corresponded with the interruption of two telecoms cables in the Baltic Sea.

…European governments accused Russia on Tuesday of escalating hybrid attacks on Ukraine’s Western allies, but stopped short of directly accusing Russia of destroying the cables.

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Probably wise that they stopped short. Unlike the ship. Badum-tish.
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The US response to bird flu is not reassuring the world • The New York Times

Tulio de Oliveira is the director of the Center for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa:

»

As a virus scientist in South Africa, I’ve been watching with dread as H5N1 bird flu spreads among animals in the United States. The pathogen poses a serious pandemic threat and has been detected in over 500 dairy herds in 15 states — which is probably an undercount. And yet the U.S. response appears inadequate and slow, with too few genomic sequences of H5N1 cases in farm animals made publicly available for scientific review.

Failure to control H5N1 among American livestock could have global consequences, and this demands urgent attention. The United States has done little to reassure the world that it has the outbreak contained.

The recent infection of a pig at a farm in Oregon is especially concerning, as pigs are known to be mixing bowls for influenza viruses. Pigs can be infected by both avian and human influenza viruses, creating a risk for the viruses to exchange genetic material and potentially speed up adaptation for human transmission. The H1N1 pandemic in 2009 was created and spread initially by pigs.

Beyond the risks to its citizens (there are over 45 cases of people in the United States getting the virus in 2024), the United States should remember that the country where a pandemic emerges can be accused of not doing enough to control it. We still hear how China did not do enough to stop the Covid-19 pandemic. None of us would want a new pathogen labeled “the American virus,” as this could be very damaging for the United States’ reputation and economy.

The United States should learn from how the global south responds to infectious diseases. Those of us working in the region have a good track record of responding to epidemics and emerging pandemics and can help the United States identify new virus strains and offer insights into how to control H5N1. This knowledge has not come easily or without suffering; it has developed from decades of dealing with deadly diseases. We’ve learned one simple lesson: you need to learn your enemy as quickly as possible in order to fight it.

«

Watching brief! Also perhaps worrying brief, because it’s hard to see the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) becoming more effective in a Trump administration. (Thanks Joe S for the link.)
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The US Patent and Trademark Office banned staff from using generative AI • WIRED

Reece Rogers:

»

The US Patent and Trademark Office banned the use of generative artificial intelligence for any purpose last year, citing security concerns with the technology as well as the propensity of some tools to exhibit “bias, unpredictability, and malicious behavior,” according to an April 2023 internal guidance memo obtained by WIRED through a public records request. Jamie Holcombe, the chief information officer of the USPTO, wrote that the office is “committed to pursuing innovation within our agency” but are still “working to bring these capabilities to the office in a responsible way.”

Paul Fucito, press secretary for the USPTO, clarified to WIRED that employees can use “state-of-the-art generative AI models” at work—but only inside the agency’s internal testing environment. “Innovators from across the USPTO are now using the AI Lab to better understand generative AI’s capabilities and limitations and to prototype AI-powered solutions to critical business needs,” Fucito wrote in an email.

Outside of the testing environment, USPTO staff are barred from relying on AI programs like OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Anthropic’s Claude for work tasks. The guidance memo from last year also prohibits the use of any outputs from the tools, including images and videos generated by AI. But Patent Office employees can use some approved AI programs, such as those within the agency’s own public database for looking up registered patents and patent applications. Earlier this year, the USPTO approved a $75m contract with Accenture Federal Services to update its patent database with enhanced AI-powered search features.

«

Perhaps AI search will stumble on the real perpetual motion machine lost in the applications. And the working cold fusion machine!
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• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?

Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.


Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified

Start Up No.2337: EU regulator calls for less tech regulation, Bluesky passes 20m, Affleck sees AI raising output, and more


Scammers who call one of the numbers in their lists will encounter an “AI granny” who wastes time by talking about knitting. CC-licensed photo by IMLS Digital Collections & Content on Flickr.

You can sign up to receive each day’s Start Up post by email. You’ll need to click a confirmation link, so no spam.


There’s another post coming this week at the Social Warming Substack on Friday at 0845 UK time. Free signup.


A selection of 9 links for you. Use them wisely. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


Meta lobbyist turned regulator says Europe’s Big Tech rules have gone too far • WIRED

Morgan Meaker:

»

By 2022, around three-quarters of all Google and Meta lobbyists in Europe previously worked at the European Commission, according to LobbyControl research. [40-year-old Finnish former Meta lobbyist, Aura] Salla once fell into this category, too. Her career in Brussels started at the European Commission before she was hired by Meta in 2020. The company did not respond to WIRED’s request to comment on this article.

Salla is worried that recently passed laws—like the Digital Markets Act, the Digital Services Act, or the AI Act—may be stifling potential European rivals to the likes of OpenAI or Apple. “We have very layered regulation on the tech sector, and that’s harming our companies,” Salla says.

The MEP does not oppose the aims of laws like the Digital Markets Act (DMA), which includes rules forcing Apple to allow third-party app stores onto European iPhones. “I hope that the DMA will be enforced so we can enable more companies to enter this field where Apple is—absolutely, I would love to see that,” Salla says. Yet she’s pessimistic the regulation will actually compel Apple to change. “I’m sorry, the company will go around it, go around it, go around it.” Instead, the businesses that will suffer, she claims, will be some of Europe’s most successful—travel company Booking.com and online retailer Zalando. “So, our own companies.”

Salla is becoming an outspoken figure, articulating concern that regulation went too far, too fast. She believes the EU should focus on boosting innovation at home over restraining companies from abroad. “We did it completely the wrong way around,” she says. European companies should be able to collect and feed their AI models data, Salla says, arguing companies are limited by “too many overlapping” rules. She stresses she is advocating for businesses to be able to use traffic and metadata—not private data—to train AI. “Even if [they are] not limited, it takes an army of consultants to make sure everything is correct,” she says.

«

There is a strong feeling that the US has been too lax but the EU has been too strict in regulating tech, and getting each back to the ideal point is no easy task.
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Bluesky tops 20m users, narrowing gap with Instagram Threads • TechCrunch

Sarah Perez:

»

Bluesky, the social network and X competitor, has been benefiting from a surge of departures from the Elon Musk-owned app formerly known as Twitter. On Tuesday, Bluesky hit a major milestone: it topped 20 million users. What’s more, new data indicates the app’s rapid growth is seeing it close the gap with another prominent X rival, Instagram Threads, across metrics like daily active users and website visits.

Bluesky’s user base is still much smaller than Threads, which recently reported north of 275 million monthly active users. However, if Bluesky’s current rate of growth holds up, it could catch up with Threads in time, market intelligence firm Similarweb believes.

Its data indicates that Threads had five times more daily active users (DAUs) than Bluesky ahead of the US elections, but on November 15, a peak day of activity for Bluesky, Threads’ lead over Bluesky had been reduced to just 1.5x in the US. (Daily active users include the mobile apps on iOS and Android, not website visitors.)

Instagram head Adam Mosseri denied Similarweb’s data is accurate, but Meta does not share DAUs.

«

It would be amusing if all Threads’s engagement-baiting (and news-minimisation) has been for naught, and what people wanted was a really vanilla social network.

You can see a real-time update of Bluesky registered users: presently just short of 20.3m users.
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Is Bluesky the new Twitter? • The Atlantic

Ian Bogost:

»

Can Bluesky be the fix for all those woes, and a lasting replacement for the site that once was Twitter? I really doubt it.

Woe that people, myself included, have been inspired even to ask the question. Although white supremacy, scams, and porn are real and worsening problems on X and other social media, I have written before in The Atlantic about a problem that I see as superordinate to all of these others: People just aren’t meant to talk with one another this much. The decline of X is a sign that we may soon be free of social media, and the compulsive, constant attention-seeking that it normalized. Counterintuitively, the rise of Bluesky is also a good sign, in that so many people are still trying to hold on to the past. Giving up on social media will take time, and it will inspire relapse.

For all its growth, Bluesky still trails far behind Meta’s Threads—Mark Zuckerberg recently told investors that his Twitter-like app adds 1 million users each day. But numbers alone don’t tell the full story. Meta has added buttons to access Threads from Instagram, so that any of its 2 billion users can slide right over, even if they never end up posting there. Bluesky, meanwhile, seems to be drawing actual users, especially in the United States, who want to post and follow.

…the internet’s media ecosystem is more fragmentary this decade than it was during the last. Uncertainty about social media’s future produces existential questions about the major platforms: Will TikTok be banned? Will X become state media? Will the Bluesky bubble grow beyond this week? Whatever happens, I still hope that social media itself will fade away. In the meantime, though, hundreds of millions of people have become accustomed to this way of interacting with friends and strangers, noshing on news, performing identities, picking fights, and accruing cultural capital or longing to do so.

«

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One Billion Users: the social media card game • Kickstarter

Mike Masnick

»

Have you ever been on social media and thought “I bet I could run this site better than the people in charge”? Well, now’s your chance to test your skills. We’ve created One Billion Users: a fast, fun card game where you’re in charge of your own social network. It’s for 2-4 players and lasts about 30 minutes.

In One Billion Users, players compete to build the most successful social network. Gain users and attract influencers to build your site while playing cards to slow down your rivals and overcome obstacles. But be careful about which communities you attract — the toxicity they bring with them could hurt your platform!

Community cards are the lifeblood of your network. They represent hundreds of millions of users on your path to One Billion and beyond, but they also bring with them different levels of toxicity that can hamper your future growth and hurt your final score.

«

Another month to go and about a tenth of the way there. Could be the next Exploding Kittens. Haven’t you always wanted to show Zuckerberg and Musk how it’s done? (Do we think Musk is hurting his final score presently?)
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Nigeria’s Ogun State wants to lead the country’s EV revolution • Rest of World

Jesusegun Alagbe:

»

One day in September, Bisi Alade rode past a long line of motorists at a fuel station in Abeokuta, the capital city of Ogun State in southwest Nigeria. Two weeks earlier, Alade would have been stuck waiting in line with the other motorists. But not anymore — he’d traded his combustion motorcycle for an electric one.

A full charge of his Spiro Commando electric motorcycle is enough to last him for a day and costs just 2,500 naira ($1.53) — half as expensive as fuel, the 42-year-old ride-hailing driver told Rest of World. The savings are significant because since May 2023, when the newly elected Nigerian president Bola Tinubu scrapped fuel subsidies, gas prices in the country have shot up by more than 450%. There are also persistent shortages.

“Life is easier now since I started riding an electric motorcycle,” Alade said. “I pity my friends who are still riding regular motorcycles.”

Alade is among the first wave of drivers to benefit from Ogun State’s push for EVs. In October last year, the state announced the E-Mobility Program, under which it plans to turn its public transportation system electric. This made Ogun State the first Nigerian state with an EV road map. Government officials, including Sa’idu Alkali, the transportation minister, and Mele Kyari, chief of state-owned oil company Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited praised the effort.

“We are not just introducing a new mode of transportation; we are pioneering a movement towards a cleaner, more efficient, and technologically advanced way of life,” Ogun State governor Dapo Abiodun said at the launch.

«

EVs! They’re everywhere!
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AI-generated shows could replace lost DVD revenue, Ben Affleck says • Ars Technica

Benj Edwards:

»

Last week, actor and director Ben Affleck shared his views on AI’s role in filmmaking during the 2024 CNBC Delivering Alpha investor summit, arguing that AI models will transform visual effects but won’t replace creative filmmaking anytime soon. A video clip of Affleck’s opinion began circulating widely on social media not long after.

“Didn’t expect Ben Affleck to have the most articulate and realistic explanation where video models and Hollywood is going,” wrote one X user.

In the clip, Affleck spoke of current AI models’ abilities as imitators and conceptual translators—mimics that are typically better at translating one style into another instead of originating deeply creative material.

“AI can write excellent imitative verse, but it cannot write Shakespeare,” Affleck told CNBC’s David Faber. “The function of having two, three, or four actors in a room and the taste to discern and construct that entirely eludes AI’s capability.”

Affleck sees AI models as “craftsmen” rather than artists (although some might find the term “craftsman” in his analogy somewhat imprecise). He explained that while AI can learn through imitation—like a craftsman studying furniture-making techniques—it lacks the creative judgment that defines artistry. “Craftsman is knowing how to work. Art is knowing when to stop,” he said.

“It’s not going to replace human beings making films,” Affleck stated. Instead, he sees AI taking over “the more laborious, less creative and more costly aspects of filmmaking,” which could lower barriers to entry and make it easier for emerging filmmakers to create movies like Good Will Hunting.

While it may seem on its surface like Affleck was attacking generative AI capabilities in the tech industry, he also did not deny the impact it may have on filmmaking. For example, he predicted that AI would reduce costs and speed up production schedules, potentially allowing shows like HBO’s House of the Dragon to release two seasons in the same period as it takes to make one.

«

I dunno, no point getting the second season of House of the Dragon out faster if it’s not worth watching. Which it wasn’t.
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Thanks to AI, Apple’s China problem is only getting worse • The Hill

Geoffrey Cain:

»

For years, Tim Cook insisted Apple could change China from the inside. Instead, China changed Apple.

The latest evidence? Apple spent billions developing cutting-edge electric vehicle battery technology with Chinese automaker BYD, only to watch its innovations become the cornerstone of BYD’s rise to global electric vehicle dominance. Apple walked away with nothing. China walked away with everything.

This isn’t just another story about corporate research and development gone wrong. It’s a cautionary tale about how even America’s most valuable company has become trapped in China’s web of technological control — and how that web is about to tighten even further.

The battery partnership reveals a familiar pattern: American innovation flows into Chinese hands, strengthening Beijing’s technological ambitions while weakening America’s competitive edge. 

But BYD isn’t the real story here: It’s about how deeply Apple has become entangled with the Chinese Communist Party’s strategic objectives. The company that once removed the Dalai Lama from its ads to appease Beijing now faces an even more consequential test: artificial intelligence.

As Apple races to roll out Apple Intelligence globally, it faces a stark choice in China. The country’s strict AI regulations require companies to hand over their algorithms for government review and ensure their AI systems “adhere to the correct political direction.” For Apple, this means either walking away from its largest overseas market or creating a separate, censored version of its AI assistant that advances the Chinese Communist Party’s surveillance and control objectives.

History suggests Apple will choose accommodation.

«

This is an opinion piece rather than a closely researched news story, but it still comes across very solidly. (And you’d forgotten about the BYD deal, which was putatively going to work wonders for Apple’s Car, hadn’t you? I had.)
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O2 deploys AI granny against scammers • The Register

Dan Robinson:

»

O2, the mobile operator arm of Brit telecoms giant Virgin Media (VMO2), says it has built the human-like AI to answer calls from fraudsters in real time, keeping them busy on the phone and wasting their time by pretending to be a potential vulnerable target.

“Daisy” is claimed to be indistinguishable from a real person, fooling scammers into thinking they’ve found perfect prey thanks to its ability to engage in “human-like” rambling chat, the biz claims.

For several weeks in the run-up to International Fraud Awareness Week (November 17–23), the AI has already frustrated scam callers with meandering stories about her family and talked at length about her passion for knitting, according to O2.

At this point, many Reg readers are probably feeling they know someone the telco might have used as training data.

But phone scams are an increasingly common threat. Criminals, often working from call centers, cold-call lists of numbers to try to con people out of their money. Common tricks include pretending to be their bank or a courier needing payment to deliver a parcel in order to get them to divulge their bank account details.

Daisy is said to combine various AI models that work together to listen to fraudulent calls and respond immediately, as if engaged in a conversation. Appropriate responses are generated through a custom large language model (LLM) with a character “personality” layer, and then fed back through a custom AI text-to-speech model to generate the spoken answer.

O2 claims it to be so lifelike that it has successfully kept fraudsters sidetracked for up to 40 minutes at a time. Some scammers were even tricked by Daisy offering false personal information, including made-up bank details.

…The AI has its own dedicated number, which the anti-fraud team managed to infiltrate into contact lists used by scammers to target Brits, an O2 spokesperson told us.

«

At last, AI used for good! Or against evil! (Thanks John K for the link.)
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No, Apple CEO Tim Cook didn’t say he prefers Logitech’s MX Master 3 over the Magic Mouse • MacRumors

Joe Rossignol:

»

While the Logitech MX Master 3 is a terrific mouse for the Mac, reports claiming that Apple CEO Tim Cook prefers that mouse over the Magic Mouse are false.

The Wall Street Journal last month published an interview with Cook, in which he said he uses every Apple product every day. Soon after, The Verge’s Wes Davis attempted to replicate using every Apple product in a single day. During that day, Davis said he mostly used the MX Master 3, but sometimes switched to a Magic Mouse or Magic Trackpad.

In other words, it was Davis who said he himself used a Logitech mouse, not Cook.

Unfortunately, The Mac Observer misinterpreted The Verge’s article and ran a since-deleted story claiming that Cook prefers the MX Master 3 over the Magic Mouse. Mistakes happen, but the false claim has since gained traction on Reddit multiple times, so hopefully this helps to clear up the situation before wrong information continues to spread.

«

That’s a bizarre mistake; you’ll have noticed that I didn’t pick up the story from the Mac Observer, but maybe I should have followed it back up the river to the source. Even so, I’d probably have ended up at the Mac Observer with its erroneous piece. Just goes to show how far and wide mistakes can go – even when they should make you think “uh?” (Thanks Fabian S and others for the link.)
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• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?

Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.


Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified

Start Up No.2336: DOJ said to seek Chrome split, did Russia cut undersea internet?, RFK Jr v civilisation, the AI poet, and more


The ISS is leaking air, but Nasa and the Russians can’t agree on how to fix it or how urgently to act. CC-licensed photo by NASA on The Commons on Flickr.

You can sign up to receive each day’s Start Up post by email. You’ll need to click a confirmation link, so no spam.


There’s another post coming this week at the Social Warming Substack on Friday at 0845 UK time. Free signup.


A selection of 9 links for you. Pressurised. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


US lawyers will reportedly try to force Google to sell Chrome and unbundle Android • The Verge

Wes Davis:

»

The Department of Justice is planning to ask for Google’s antitrust trial judge to force the company to sell off its Chrome browser after the judge ruled the company has maintained an illegal search monopoly, reports Bloomberg.

Chrome is the world’s most widely used browser, and the government’s lawyers have argued that its use in cross-promoting Google’s products is one of the things limiting available channels and incentives for competition to grow.

Requirements that officials are preparing to propose include that Google separate Android from Search and Google Play, but without trying to force Google to sell off Android. Another requirement would say it has to share more information with advertisers and that it “give them more control over where their ads appear,” the outlet writes.

Bloomberg also reports that officials will recommend that the company “give websites more options to prevent their content from being used by Google’s artificial intelligence products.” Finally, they will reportedly push for “a ban on the type of exclusive contracts that were at the center of the case against Google.”

«

Cleaving Chrome from Google would be quite the move: how do you transfer all the data that people have stored on Google’s servers (lots of passwords in there!). Do you then make people pay for it? Or do you rely on advertising to somehow pay for those coders?

One thing’s for sure: ChromeCo would have far fewer engineers than presently work on Chrome.
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The ISS has been leaking air for 5 years, and engineers still don’t know why – Ars Technica

Stephen Clark:

»

US and Russian officials “don’t have a common understanding of what the likely root cause is, or the severity of the consequences of these leaks,” said Bob Cabana, a retired NASA astronaut who took the helm of the advisory committee earlier this year. Cabana replaced former Apollo astronaut Tom Stafford, who chaired the committee before he died in March.

The transfer tunnel, known by the Russian acronym PrK, connects the Zvezda module with a docking port where Soyuz crew and Progress resupply spacecraft attach to the station.

Air has been leaking from the transfer tunnel since September 2019. On several occasions, Russian cosmonauts have repaired the cracks and temporarily reduced the leak rate. In February, the leak rate jumped up again to 2.4 pounds per day, then increased to 3.7 pounds per day in April.

This prompted managers to elevate the transfer tunnel leak to the highest level of risk in the space station program’s risk management system. This 5×5 “risk matrix” classifies the likelihood and consequence of risks. Ars reported in June that the leaks are now classified as a “5” both in terms of high likelihood and high consequence.

NASA reported in September that the latest round of repairs cut the leak rate by a third, but it did not eliminate the problem.

“The Russian position is that the most probable cause of the PrK cracks is high cyclic fatigue caused by micro-vibrations,” Cabana said on November 13. “NASA believes the PrK cracks are likely multi-causal, including pressure and mechanical stress, residual stress, material properties, and environmental exposures.”

The ISS is aging. Zvezda and the PrK launched in July 2000 and will mark a quarter-century in orbit next year. NASA wants to keep the space station operating until at least 2030, while Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, has committed only through 2028.

Roscosmos has shared sample metals, welds, and investigation reports with NASA to assist in the study of the cracks and leaks. In a report published in September, NASA’s inspector general said NASA’s ISS Vehicle Office at Johnson Space Center in Houston said the leaks are “not an immediate risk to the structural integrity of the station.”

This is because managers have implemented mitigations to protect the entire station in the event of a structural failure of the PrK.

«

Well *this* wasn’t in Gravity.
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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea cut, Germany and Finland fear sabotage • Reuters via MSN

Johan Alexander, Essi Lehton and Adrius Sytas:

»

Two undersea fibre-optic communications cables in the Baltic Sea, including one linking Finland and Germany, were severed, raising suspicions of sabotage by bad actors, countries and companies involved said on Monday.

The episode recalled other incidents in the same waterway that authorities have probed as potentially malicious including damage to a gas pipeline and undersea cables last year and the 2022 explosions of the Nord Sea gas pipelines.

The 1,200-kilometre (745-mile) cable connecting Helsinki to the German port of Rostock stopped working around 0200 GMT on Monday, Finnish state-controlled cyber security and telecoms company Cinia said.

A 218-km (135-mile) internet link between Lithuania and Sweden’s Gotland Island went out of service at about 0800 GMT on Sunday, according to Lithuania’s Telia Lietuva, part of Sweden’s Telia Company group.

Finland and Germany said in a joint statement that they were “deeply concerned about the severed undersea cable” and were investigating “an incident (that) immediately raises suspicions of intentional damage.”

Europe’s security is threatened by Russia’s war against Ukraine and “hybrid warfare by malicious actors,” the joint statement said, without naming the actors.

«

One could be accident, two definitely feels like intent. By Russia.
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How Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could destroy one of civilization’s best achievements • The New York Times

Zeynep Tufecki:

»

Modern public health is one of civilization’s great achievements. In 1900, up to 30% of infants in some US cities never made it to their first birthday. Since that time, vaccines, sanitation and effective medications have eliminated many previously commonplace illnesses and consigned others to extreme rarity. It’s easy to take much of that for granted, especially as those days have receded from living memory, but those achievements are fragile and can be lost.

The danger isn’t merely that Kennedy — who has almost no experience in government or large-scale administration, and who has shown a sometimes breathtakingly loose connection to the truth — would be incompetent or misleading. At the helm of a department with over 80,000 employees and a $3 trillion budget, one that oversees key agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health, he would have control over the nation’s medicines, food safety, vaccines and medical research. With that power he could inflict significant harm to the public health system — and to the public trust that would be needed to rebuild it once he’s gone.

Kennedy has brought attention to some worthwhile public health concerns, such as the downsides of ultraprocessed foods and the value of exercise. But beyond those reasonable issues, he has filled the internet and the airwaves with views on vaccines, food safety, medicines and supplements that are a mix of grave misrepresentations and far-fetched conspiracies.

His opposition to vaccines has attracted the most attention. He doesn’t say just that they merit closer scrutiny, as some “vaccine skeptics” claim. Last year he told a podcaster that “there’s no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective.” When it later became expedient, he denied that he had ever said such a thing. The truth is that he has long promoted the lie that vaccines cause autism, and the extravagantly false claim that “researchers have done very little to study the health” of children after they get shots for once-common diseases.

«

Let’s be clear: Trump’s administration is going to be an utter clown show, with all the restraint of a lit flare thrown into a fireworks box. For a moment, while he isn’t yet in power, it’s funny. But that’s going to wear off.

For a similar view of more of the appointees, The Unpopulist has a rundown.
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AI-generated poetry is indistinguishable from human-written poetry and is rated more favourably • Scientific Reports

Brian Porter and Edouard Machery:

»

We conducted two experiments with non-expert poetry readers and found that participants performed below chance levels in identifying AI-generated poems (46.6% accuracy, χ2(1, N = 16,340) = 75.13, p < 0.0001).

Notably, participants were more likely to judge AI-generated poems as human-authored than actual human-authored poems (χ2(2, N = 16,340) = 247.04, p < 0.0001).

We found that AI-generated poems were rated more favorably in qualities such as rhythm and beauty, and that this contributed to their mistaken identification as human-authored. Our findings suggest that participants employed shared yet flawed heuristics to differentiate AI from human poetry: the simplicity of AI-generated poems may be easier for non-experts to understand, leading them to prefer AI-generated poetry and misinterpret the complexity of human poems as incoherence generated by AI.

«

You can see the poems here. And yes, I’d agree that it seems non-experts don’t like having to work too hard when reading poetry.
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The Alex cartoon for Thursday 14 November 2024

“Alex” by Peattie and Taylor has been running for decades: it started in the London Daily News (I know, sounds like a made-up newspaper name from a film) in 1987 and has been going pretty much unbroken since.

This one nails yet another truism of life today, with a social media twist. (Bookmark the site and stay with it.)
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A study found that X’s algorithm now loves two things: Republicans and Elon Musk • The Verge

Wes Davis:

»

Elon Musk’s X may have tweaked its algorithm to boost his account, along with those of other conservative-leaning users, starting around the time he announced his support of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. That’s according to a new study published by the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), which found that Musk’s posts in particular were suddenly much more popular.

The study’s authors — QUT associate professor in digital media Timothy Graham and Monash University communications and media studies professor Mark Andrejevic — first looked at Musk’s engagement before and after his July endorsement of Trump. They report that starting around July 13th, Musks’ posts received 138% more views and 238% more retweets than before that date.

Musk’s numbers “outpaced the general engagement trends observed across the platform,” they concluded. (This paper isn’t the first time it’s been suggested that X adjusted its algorithm to specifically boost Musk’s account.) The researchers also found that other Republican-leaning accounts they examined saw similar boosts that started in July, albeit to a lesser degree.

The study’s results are similar to other recently reported findings by The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post of potential right-wing bias in X’s algorithms. However, the researchers say they were limited by the “relatively small amount of data” that could be collected since the platform cut off access to its Academic API.

«

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Apple’s mouse is so bad that Tim Cook prefers using a different brand for work • Glass Almanac

Brian Foster:

»

In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Tim Cook provided a glimpse into his daily workflow, listing several Apple devices he uses regularly: a Mac Studio, an iPhone 13 Pro Max, an iPad Pro, and even a retro iMac G4 for nostalgic flair. But when it came to the mouse he relies on the most, Cook admitted that his go-to is the Logitech MX Master 3 — not Apple’s Magic Mouse.

While Cook mentioned occasionally switching to the Magic Mouse or Magic Trackpad, his preference for a competitor’s product caught many by surprise.

It’s easy to see why Cook opts for the Logitech MX Master 3. Designed with ergonomics in mind, it features a comfortable thumb rest, a customizable MagSpeed scroll wheel, and a Flow feature that allows seamless use across multiple devices. Notably, the MX Master 3 charges via a front-facing USB-C port, meaning it can continue to be used while plugged in — a stark contrast to the Magic Mouse’s disruptive design.

The Logitech MX Master 3 also offers impressive battery life and versatility, making it a popular choice for professionals juggling various tasks. Cook’s mention of this mouse could very well boost its appeal to Mac users — and even PC users — looking for a productivity-friendly alternative.

While it’s unusual for a CEO to promote a competitor’s product, Cook’s candidness is refreshing. His choice underscores a key lesson: even in a company as innovative as Apple, practicality sometimes requires looking beyond in-house solutions.

«

If Apple were ever to make a mouse that looked like the Logitech MX Master 3, everyone would assume that the designers were on hallucinogenic drugs.

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Apple [allegedly] thinks about an Apple TV set — yet again • Business Insider

Peter Kafka:

»

Yes, you’ve heard this before: What if Apple built its own TV set?

It’s an idea that never goes away completely but has never actually happened.

That’s for good reason: An Apple TV set didn’t make sense years ago. It makes even less sense now.

Is Apple going to build a TV?

First: probably not. Second: It would be a terrible idea if Apple did.

But for the record, Apple is “evaluating” the idea of an Apple-branded set, reports Mark Gurman, Bloomberg’s very well-sourced Apple expert.

Gurman himself doesn’t seem to think there’s a meaningful chance that this happens. He made a short, throwaway reference to the idea in his latest column, which focuses primarily on Apple CEO Tim Cook’s relationship with Donald Trump. (TL;DR: Cook became an expert Trump manager during Trump 1.0 by letting the president do what he wanted in public, like take credit for things he didn’t do, while prevailing on him privately to do things Cook wanted Trump to do — namely, exempting Apple products from tariffs.)

What Gurman thinks Apple is going to do is roll out an “AI wall tablet” that people would use in their homes to control smart devices and talk to people in other rooms, etc. — basically, a souped-up intercom/doorbell system using a series of iPad-like devices. But in theory, if that goes well, then maybe Apple will be more interested in chasing an Actual TV Set. (I’ve asked Apple PR for comment.)

The thing is, we’ve been hearing about Apple and its ambitions to build an actual TV set for a long, long time. And they didn’t really make sense at the time, and they definitely don’t now.

«

Kafka knows this is not going to happen, and Apple knows it’s not going to happen, and you know it’s not going to happen, and I know it’s not going to happen: TV sets are utter commodities. But it entertains people to trot it out every so often. Kafka wearily tweeted that this is his third decade of writing about how this isn’t going to happen.
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• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?

Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.


Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified

Start Up No.2335: is the Bluesky Xodus a serious problem?, the fluoridation question, Onion sure it has Infowars, and more


Deadly or delicious (or both)? Facebook put an AI chatbot offering potentially lethal advice into a mushroom Group. CC-licensed photo by Aleksey Gnilenkov on Flickr.

You can sign up to receive each day’s Start Up post by email. You’ll need to click a confirmation link, so no spam.

A selection of 9 links for you. Uncapped. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


AI chatbot added to mushroom foraging Facebook Group immediately gives tips for cooking dangerous mushroom • 404 Media

Jason Koebler:

»

An AI chatbot called “FungiFriend” was added to a popular mushroom identification Facebook group last week. It then told users there how to “sauté in butter” a potentially dangerous mushroom, signaling again the high level of risk that AI chatbots and tools pose to people who forage for mushrooms.

404 Media has previously reported on the prevalence and risk of AI tools intersecting with the mushroom foraging hobby. We reported on AI-generated mushroom foraging books on Amazon and the fact that Google image search has shown AI-generated images of mushrooms as top search results. On Tuesday, the FungiFriend AI chatbot to the Northeast Mushroom Identification & Discussion Facebook group, which has 13,500 members and is a place where beginner mushroom foragers often ask others for help identifying the mushrooms they have found in the wild. A moderator for the group said that the bot was automatically added by Meta and that “we are most certainly removing it from here.” Meta did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The bot is personified as a bearded, psychedelic wizard. Meta recently began adding AI chatbots into specific groups, and has also created different character AIs.

Rick Claypool, research director for consumer safety group Public Citizen’s president’s office, told 404 Media about FungiFriend. Claypool has done important work about corporate capture of local and state governments, but is also an avid mushroom forager and has been documenting the risks of AI tools in mushroom foraging over the last few months.

Over the summer, he wrote a lengthy article in Fungi Magazine that noted “emerging AI technologies are being deployed to help beginner foragers identify edible wild mushrooms. Distinguishing edible mushrooms from toxic mushrooms in the wild is a high-risk activity that requires real-world skills that current AI systems cannot reliably emulate.” 

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This is all a bit Darwinian. Are we sure that they haven’t achieved intelligence and are trying to wipe us out, quietly?
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Netflix served the Tyson vs. Paul fight to 60 million households • The Verge

Wes Davis:

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Netflix peaked at “65 million concurrent streams” during the boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul last night, according to Most Valuable Promotions, the promoter for the fight. Those streams went out to 60 million households globally, the group said in a press release shared with The Verge via email. That’s more than twice the traffic Netflix could see for its Christmas Day NFL stream this year, if everyone who watched last year streamed it.

The crush of people trying to watch Tyson vs. Paul seemed to be more than Netflix’s servers could easily handle, as the social web was awash with complaints about the quality of the stream, which many found to be muddy, or plagued with buffering and dropped connections. Downdetector recorded more than 100,000 complaints of Netflix streaming issues during the event, according to Bloomberg.

That’s also just a massive number of people streaming a single live event at the same time. Disney served 59 million concurrent streams of a World Cup cricket match through its Disney Plus Hotstar service last year. It hit similar numbers a few days earlier, and again in June this year.

Netflix CTO Elizabeth Stone told employees that the company dealt with this “unprecedented scale” by prioritizing keeping the stream stable “for the majority of viewers,” according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman.

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When the Beatles appeared on the Ed Sullivan show in February 1964, 60 years ago, 73 million people watched. Now, the quality might not have been tip-top, but it was as good as they could offer at the time, and modern broadcast could reach that number in HD.

A roundabout way of saying that we seem to do two steps forward, two steps back. (Or vice-versa.) We now do live sports! To lots of people! Which we did before. (I remember pay-per-view Tyson fights years ago. Everything old is new again.)
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London bus crashes are the result of an unsafe model • FT

Camilla Cavendish, who met Tom Kearney, an American businessman who was hit by a London bus’s wing mirror and put into a coma (from which he recovered):

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The most recent data show that 86 people died or were badly injured in bus collisions in London between 10 December 2023 and 31 March 2024. Kearney’s analysis of TfL data suggests that around three people a day are hospitalised after bus safety incidents. That doesn’t feel good, even though it’s tiny in comparison to the 1.8bn annual passenger journeys. Compared with other world cities like New York and Paris the capital’s buses rank in the top quartile for financial efficiency but the bottom quartile for collisions per kilometre. And the number of collisions in London has increased in the past couple of years, despite buses travelling fewer miles.  

Could this have anything to do with the way that bus contracts prioritise speed? Last week, hundreds of bus drivers marched to TfL headquarters to demand better working conditions and the right to report safety concerns “without fear of retribution from TfL or employers”. Drivers described the pressure of long shifts, few breaks and having to drive in sometimes blistering heat, all while being shouted at over a monitor by controllers who want them to make up the time to the next stop, and keep the right amount of distance between their bus and next. It’s not surprising that a third of bus drivers, before the pandemic, reported having had a “close call” from fatigue.  

With the government about to export the London franchise model to other parts of the country, someone in Whitehall needs to take a look. Michael Liebreich, a former McKinsey consultant who sat on the TfL board for six years, believes that TfL’s contracting out model is “institutionally unsafe”. Bus drivers are under such pressure, he thinks, that some may break the speed limit and overtake cyclists dangerously. 

I still wasn’t sure about this, until I met the families of more victims. Katrina Finnegan’s aunt Kathleen died earlier this year, after being hit by a bus at Victoria bus station. Trish Burr’s daughter Melissa also died in Victoria a few years earlier, after a driver accidentally hit the accelerator.

What shocked me was how badly the families were treated.

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Dreaming of snow this winter? Look up the forecast • Washington Post

Harry Stevens and Ben Noll:

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For Joseph Gordon, 83, a snowless season will further confirm his sense that the winters of his memory have been irretrievably lost. Four decades ago, Gordon moved to McLean, Virginia, where he raised his family. He remembers snowy days when he would pile his kids into a 10-foot toboggan or cross-country ski through acres of farmland where rows of houses now stand.

Gordon has not consulted a meteorological database, but his experience tells him McLean gets less snow than it used to. According to our analysis of 60 years of snowfall data, he’s right. “It’s so gradual,” Gordon said of the change in snowfall. “We’re like frogs in a pot of boiling water, and we don’t jump out until it’s too late.”

With the exception of part of the Northeast and a few patches elsewhere, the snowfall trend across the country has matched Northern Virginia’s, with less snow in the most recent three decades than in the three decades before that.

Over the past 60 years, as humans have added more than 2.3 trillion tons of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, the average global temperature has increased by about 2.1ºF (1.2ºC). The warming has contributed to less snow in the United States and elsewhere.

“The laws of thermodynamics are tough to beat,” said Brian Brettschneider, a climatologist who has studied long-term snowfall trends. “As you warm temperatures up, you’re just going to get less snow. There’s just no way around that.”

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The accompanying map shows that barely anywhere in the US is going to see “more” snow; almost everywhere will get less. Unsurprising.
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Lucy Manning on how a sexually obscene phone call led to a two-year ordeal getting police to act • BBC News

Lucy Manning is a BBC journalist who received an obscene call – which she taped – and took it to the police:

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I was concerned about my personal safety: if this man knew my first name and number, did he know me? Had I met him? Was it someone I’d interviewed? Did he know where I lived?

He had an accent I didn’t recognise, maybe Midlands. I assumed it was in some way connected to the fact I was an on-air BBC journalist but I wasn’t sure. I dialled 999 to report the crime.

The following day I went to my local police station to give a statement and was asked to upload the taped recording onto the Metropolitan Police’s system.

I was naively hopeful they could use it to quickly trace the caller and arrest the man.
I’ve worked on too many stories of violence against women – including the disappearance and subsequent rape and murder of Sarah Everard.

Police had failed to investigate Wayne Couzens for at least three indecent exposure offences before he murdered Sarah Everard. Experts say those offences may have been a “red flag” that someone could go onto more serious offending.

So I had two concerns: my own safety and making sure this man couldn’t go on to commit more serious sexual offences.

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The incredibly screwed-up way that things which should have happened did not happen ought to shame the police. But you know that instead of remaking the way in which cases are handled, they’ll just shrug.
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The X exodus: could Bluesky spike spark end of Elon Musk’s social media platform? • Sky News

Mickey Carroll:

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Actress Jamie Lee Curtis, The Guardian newspaper, and even the Clifton Suspension Bridge have joined swathes of people deserting Elon Musk’s social media site X.

Millions have instead joined Bluesky, which has a stronger focus on moderation, set up by former Twitter founder Jack Dorsey – who is now no longer affiliated with the social media platform – in 2019.

According to the official Bluesky account, a million people joined the platform in just one day this week, after Musk was given a position in Donald Trump’s government.

“The alignment of Mr Musk with president-elect Trump and his use of the platform to promote the interests of president-elect Trump is obviously driving out a lot of people,” says Adam Tinworth, a social media expert and digital journalism lecturer at City St George’s University.

…Jason Barnard, the chief executive of Kalicube, spent nine years gathering three billion different data points that Google uses to decide what is factual information.

He told Sky News that although X has a long-standing agreement with Google to allow the search engine to use X posts to help it understand the world, Google’s trust appears to be waning.

“Bluesky is 20 times smaller in terms of the number of people on the platform,” he says. “If you search for people [on Google], you will find Bluesky 10 times less often than you will find X.

“But,” he says, “it’s 10 times more important to Google today for factual information.”

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I think people like Bluesky perhaps a little more because they can create blocklists, and there will probably be APIs sooner. (It certainly needs better native Mac apps.) And shouldn’t it be called the Xodus?

That Google data point though is dramatic.
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Why do we put fluoride in water? • The Atlantic

Charles C. Mann, writing in 2020:

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Nonfluoridated nations such as Belgium, Luxembourg, and Denmark actually have better dental health by this measure than the United States, one of the world’s fluoridation champions. Finland, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland tried fluoridation, abandoned it years later—and saw no rise in tooth decay. What’s going on?

One of the lesser-known advantages of government-run health-care systems, such as Britain’s National Health Service, is the fact that because taxpayers are funding everything, the government occasionally tries to determine whether the money is being spent usefully. In 1999, the government asked the NHS to “carry out an up-to-date expert scientific review of fluoride and health.” A research team based at the University of York evaluated every study of fluoridation it could find—about 3,200 of them. The team’s conclusion was, it said, “surprising.” Despite the long fight over fluoridation, few of the thousands of studies counted as “high-quality research.” The implication was that Britain had been tinkering with its water supply with little empirical support. Trevor Sheldon, the head of the York review’s advisory board, was blunt: “There’s really hardly any evidence” that fluoridation works, he told Newsweek. “And if anything there may be some evidence the other way.” These findings were respectfully ignored.

In 2015, the Cochrane organization waded into the debate. Founded in 1993, Cochrane is a London-based global network of about 30,000 medical researchers in multiple countries that provides systematic analyses of medical issues. The goal is to produce painstaking, rigorous assessments of what research has—and hasn’t—established about a given subject. Cochrane has a fiercely guarded reputation for impartiality and thoroughness. Its verdicts have global impact. Which may be why the pushback on its fluoridation work was so strong.

…The Cochrane group reported its work carefully. The evidence, it said, is poor and sparse, but what little there is “indicates” that the fluoridation of water reduces cavities in children. But, the group said, “these results are based predominantly on old studies”—from before 1975—“and may not be applicable today.” For adults, there is “insufficient evidence,” old or new, to determine whether fluoridation is effective. The report did not support or attack fluoridation; it only asked for more research.

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Well, now RFK Jr is going to remove it. Let the research begin!
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TikTok takes down 400k videos in Kenya over sexual content • Semafor

Martin Siele:

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TikTok is deleting more videos in Kenya for violating community guidelines, as the company looks to avoid government scrutiny over content moderation for sexually explicit content.

TikTok pulled down 360,000 videos in Kenya in the three months to June, according to its newly published Q2 enforcement report. It took down 296,000 videos in all of 2023 in Kenya. The videos removed in the three-month period accounted for 0.3% of videos uploaded in Kenya in that quarter.

The platform was compelled by Kenya’s government in April to share quarterly compliance reports because it faced a petition that threatened to see it banned in the country.

The proliferation of sexual content in particular on TikTok in Kenya fueled the push for stricter moderation from regulators concerned about Only Fans-style content. Videos featuring ethnic incitement and violence are also often pulled down for violating guidelines.

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A reminder that it’s not just the US where people get worked up over social media content.
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The Onion CEO explains Infowars purchase amid Alex Jones’s claims about auction • Politico via MSN

Ashleigh Fields:

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The Onion CEO Ben Collins confirmed that the publication purchased Alex Jones’s Infowars outlet in a Saturday series of posts on the social media platform Bluesky amid Jones’s claims of wrongdoing and illegal activity.  

“I just wanted to give a quick update on The Onion’s purchase of InfoWars, which we can’t wait to relaunch as the dumbest website on the internet,” Collins wrote. 

“The long and short of it: We won the auction and — you’re not going to believe this — the previous InfoWars folks aren’t taking it well.”

He shared that The Onion, a satirical news website, won the bid for Infowars on Thursday at Jones’s bankruptcy auction, along with the Connecticut Sandy Hook families of victims. Jones previously said the massacre was a “hoax.”

Jones was held liable for nearly $1.5bn in damages due to his false claims about the 2012 mass shooting in Newtown, Conn. The families moved to liquidate his business and take over his social media accounts, which was granted by a judge in September.

Throughout their efforts to acquire Jones’s platforms, he has spread conspiracies about legal missteps in the process. He recently claimed that the auction for his Infowars site was changed from a “regular auction” to a “secret” auction two days before it occurred. He also said that higher bidders were prevented from submitting offers so that a lower bid could be accepted. 

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For clarification of Friday’s link and its update. Alex Jones telling fibs? Perish the thought.
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• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?

Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.


Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified

Start Up No.2334: LLMs start to hit their scaling limit, US media confronts its election miss, BlueSky visualised, and more


Incinerators are used to dispose of a lot of British household rubbish – but they’re very polluting. CC-licensed photo by Tim Sheerman-Chase on Flickr.

You can sign up to receive each day’s Start Up post by email. You’ll need to click a confirmation link, so no spam.


It’s Friday, so there’s another post due at the Social Warming Substack at about 0845 UK time. It’s about Bluesky.


A selection of 9 links for you. Fired up. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI • Bloomberg via NDTV

Rachel Metz, Shirin Ghaffary, Dina Bass and Julia Love:

»

OpenAI was on the cusp of a milestone. The startup finished an initial round of training in September for a massive new artificial intelligence model that it hoped would significantly surpass prior versions of the technology behind ChatGPT and move closer to its goal of powerful AI that outperforms humans.

But the model, known internally as Orion, did not hit the company’s desired performance, according to two people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss company matters. As of late summer, for example, Orion fell short when trying to answer coding questions that it hadn’t been trained on, the people said. Overall, Orion is so far not considered to be as big a step up from OpenAI’s existing models as GPT-4 was from GPT-3.5, the system that originally powered the company’s flagship chatbot, the people said.

OpenAI isn’t alone in hitting stumbling blocks recently. After years of pushing out increasingly sophisticated AI products at a breakneck pace, three of the leading AI companies are now seeing diminishing returns from their costly efforts to build newer models. At Alphabet Inc.’s Google, an upcoming iteration of its Gemini software is not living up to internal expectations, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. Anthropic, meanwhile, has seen the timetable slip for the release of its long-awaited Claude model called 3.5 Opus.

The companies are facing several challenges. It’s become increasingly difficult to find new, untapped sources of high-quality, human-made training data that can be used to build more advanced AI systems. Orion’s unsatisfactory coding performance was due in part to the lack of sufficient coding data to train on, two people said. At the same time, even modest improvements may not be enough to justify the tremendous costs associated with building and operating new models, or to live up to the expectations that come with branding a product as a major upgrade.

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AI systems are already hitting the asymptotic point, you say?

Also this in the story:

»

Anthropic declined to comment but referred Bloomberg News to a five-hour podcast featuring chief executive officer Dario Amodei that was released Monday.

“People call them scaling laws. That’s a misnomer,” he said on the podcast. “They’re not laws of the universe. They’re empirical regularities. I am going to bet in favour of them continuing, but I’m not certain of that.”

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If someone who was not my editor had told me to go and find some information they already had by listening to a five-hour podcast I would have made it my life’s work to find them and torture them horribly.
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The election proved the media is in crisis. Here’s what it needs to do to regain its relevance • CNN Business

Brian Stelter:

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Some of these trends have been evident for years, but the election results have put an exclamation point on the concerns about distrust and dissatisfaction with the media status quo. Now, a reckoning is underway. Media executives and rank-and-file reporters are wondering what needs to change. What can news outlets do to regain trust and appeal to new audiences without alienating existing readers and viewers?

For the past week, CNN’s media team has been receiving feedback from readers of the Reliable Sources newsletter. Here are some of the concrete recommendations and ideas that have emerged.

First, recognize the scope of the problem: Mainstream media outlets have been losing public trust for decades, particularly among Republicans, but also among Democrats and independents. Alternative sources, often lacking any semblance of journalistic standards, have filled some of the voids. And smart phones, social networks and streaming services have introduced an almost infinite amount of competition for people’s attention. Algorithms have replaced human editors and artificial intelligence systems have started to replace search. These are huge changes that warrant equally big adjustments by news outlets.

Pop the bubbles: Many news consumers, and a good number of journalists, think national news coverage is too Washington-centric. Maybe, CNN’s Donie O’Sullivan commented last week, the media collectively spent “too much time obsessing about polling (where did that get us?) and not enough time talking to people!” O’Sullivan and other correspondents interviewed voters all election season long, but those conversations and focus groups should inform editorial decisions and panel discussions.

Geographic diversity would also help. “When we cover MAGA,” a former ABC News executive said, ruefully, “it’s like going to the zoo to report on an exotic animal.” One logical takeaway: Publishers should embrace the Zoom era and have employees spread out across the country to balance out New York and Washington groupthink.

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There’s plenty more, but you have to wonder if an organisation with so much inertia is going to be able to adjust. And the journalists too will have to consider quite what journalism looks like in this modern age.
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Google executive picked to supercharge news efforts has resigned • WSJ

Alexandra Bruell:

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Shailesh Prakash, a Google News executive central to the tech giant’s relationships with publishers, has resigned, according to people familiar with the situation.

The high-profile departure comes amid a continuing rift between Google and news outlets over how the search engine drives traffic and uses their content.

Prakash, a vice president and general manager for Google News, joined the tech giant two years ago from the Washington Post, where he spent more than a decade overseeing data and technology.

At Google, he brought an understanding of publishers’ frustrations as they have grappled with traffic declines and seek compensation for the Alphabet unit’s GOOGL -1.51%decrease; red down pointing triangle use of their content. While he oversaw product and engineering for the News group, he also communicated with leaders at news publishers regarding changes related to search and generative AI.

A representative from Google declined to comment on Prakash’s departure.

During his decade-plus tenure at the Post, where he was chief information officer, Prakash helped transform the news outlet’s digital operation and oversaw a number of technology experiments, including an advertising technology and digital publishing business that serviced publishers beyond the Post.

…Google is the greatest source of traffic to publishers’ websites, because when people search for information, the results often direct them to news articles. Publishers have balked in recent years at payment offers from Google, arguing that their content is worth more than Google has been willing to pay.

Currently weighing on publishers is Google’s use of their content to produce generative AI overviews, which respond to search queries with a complete answer, along with a link icon to the publishers’ sites that source the information.

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Burning household rubbish now UK’s dirtiest form of power, BBC finds • BBC News

Esme Stallard, Matt McGrath, Patrick Clahane & Paul Lynch:

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Burning household rubbish in giant incinerators to make electricity is now the dirtiest way the UK generates power, BBC analysis has found.

Nearly half of the rubbish produced in UK homes, including increasing amounts of plastic, is now being incinerated. Scientists warn it is a “disaster for the climate” – and some are calling for a ban on new incinerators.

The BBC examined five years of data from across the country, and found that burning waste produces the same amount of greenhouse gases for each unit of energy as coal power, which was abandoned by the UK last month.

The Environmental Services Association, which represents waste firms, contested our findings and said emissions from dealing with waste are “challenging to avoid”.

Nearly 15 years ago, the government became seriously concerned with the gases being produced from throwing away household rubbish in landfill and their contribution to climate change. In response, it hiked the taxes UK councils paid for burying waste.

Facing massive bills, councils turned to energy-from-waste plants – a type of incinerator that produces electricity from burning rubbish. The number of incinerators surged – in the past five years the number in England alone has risen from 38 to 52. About 3.1% of the UK’s energy comes from waste incinerators.

…In the past few years, more plastic has been going to incinerators and less food waste – which councils are now sending to anaerobic digesters or to be composted. But the government’s own calculations continue to assume that we send the same mix of rubbish as we did back in 2017 – potentially underestimating the scale of the issue.

The BBC’s five-year analysis used data on actual pollution levels recorded by operators at their incinerators, and found that energy-from-waste plants are now producing the same amount of greenhouse gases per unit of electricity as if they were burning coal.

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Oh. That’s really not what we wanted at all.
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AI-powered bots on X spread disinformation in Ghana’s election • Rest of World

Caroline Haskins:

»

The accounts — which appear to have AI-generated profile photos, and have names such as “Glenn Washington,” “Netflix Series&Movies,” and “Patriot” — also disparage John Mahama, the presidential candidate from the rival left-wing party National Democratic Congress. These posts often use hashtags such as #mahamaisaliar and #DrunkmaniMahama, accusing Mahama of being a drunkard. (Mahama has denied this.)

“The primary goal of the network appears to be to amplify pro-NPP messaging, promote the Bawumia administration and take aim at the opposition National Democratic Congress,” McKenzie Sadeghi, an editor of AI and foreign influence at NewsGuard who contributed to the research, told Rest of World.

Dimitris Dimitriadis, NewsGuard’s director of research and development, said in an interview with Rest of World that the bot accounts tend to post at “regular” and “predictable” intervals, often ten or more times per day. He said the accounts — which tend to be active between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. in Ghana — mostly receive likes and reposts from others in the bot network. These regimented patterns in timing and style tipped the researchers off that the accounts may be fake.

NewsGuard’s research team fed all 171 of the posts from the accounts into a tool from Pangram Labs, which assesses the likelihood of text being generated by AI, Dimitriadis said. The tool concluded that it was “highly likely” that all of the accounts were posting AI-generated content created by ChatGPT.

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Don’t tell me – the moderators at X don’t care. Also, a Newsguard survey recently found that a quarter of (American) respondents thought users with blue ticks were more reliable than those without. (They’re not.)
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Visualizing 13 million BlueSky users • Joel Gustafson

Joel Gustafson:

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Anyone who uses Twitter a lot knows that it’s a big place. Not just that it has a lot of active users, but more that there are lots of different parts.

Over time, everybody develops their own mental map of the landscape, infering how vast and foreign the whole network is from hints and clues, stray tweets escaping containment, and chance encounters in a big account’s replies. But we never get to see the whole thing for real.

We can’t make a map of all of Twitter, because the data isn’t available and scraping it would be difficult and illegal. But we can do it for BlueSky, which has seen massive growth over the last several months thanks to Twitter’s ongoing antagonization of its userbase and Brazil banning Twitter outright in October 2024.

Here’s a sneak peek at the final result.

You can also explore the map interactively at https://aurora.ndimensional.xyz, although you’ll need desktop Chrome/Chromium since it uses WebGPU.

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It’s an interesting thread, though it tells us what we’d expect: these networks tend to cluster, either by country or topic.
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Guardian quits X social media platform, citing racism and conspiracy theories • Reuters

Andy Bruce:

»

British news publisher the Guardian said on Wednesday it will no longer post to X, citing “disturbing content” on the social media platform, including racism and conspiracy theories.

The left-leaning Guardian, which has 10.7 million followers on X, becomes the first large UK media company to retreat from the platform that Elon Musk purchased in 2022.

Critics say Musk’s hands-off approach has allowed lies and hate speech to spread on the platform formerly known as Twitter.

“We think that the benefits of being on X are now outweighed by the negatives and that resources could be better used promoting our journalism elsewhere,” the Guardian said in an editorial published on its website.

“This is something we have been considering for a while given the often disturbing content promoted or found on the platform, including far-right conspiracy theories and racism.”

In response, Musk posted, opens new tab on X and said of the Guardian: “They are irrelevant.”

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Guardian reporters are still OK to gather info from the site, and (if they want) to post there, and can embed content from it. It seems a slightly odd move: my view is that time spent there all costs Musk money (because it sure isn’t making a profit), and for the Guardian posting there has minimal marginal cost, and its stories might get picked up.

Come a long way from 2007 or so when I was technology editor and did an analysis suggesting that posting there was bringing in thousands of clicks per week for the Technology section alone. (It’s possible that bit.ly, the URL-shortening site which generated the metrics, didn’t ignore bots as well as it should have.)
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How The New York Times beat the algorithm and became Facebook’s top publisher • Sherwood News

Ryan Broderick and Adam Bumas:

»

According to Garbage Day data, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign trounced Trump on Facebook. And the top publisher on the world’s largest social network in the lead-up to the big vote wasn’t some far-right disinformation operation, nor was it even a right-wing tabloid. For the first time in years, the leading news outlet on Facebook was The New York Times.

Times articles have been among the platform’s most popular shared links since August. The standout articles have included election reporting, like their August article about Black men supporting Harris, as well as more general stories, like coverage of the US Open. In October, 7 of the 10 most popular articles on Facebook came from the Gray Lady. Leading the pack was the single most-shared article in more than a year since Garbage Day started tracking: the website’s ongoing coverage of Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, which included multiple references to Harris’ reaction.

The only outgoing link shared more times all year, in fact, was the donation page for the pro-Democrat PAC ActBlue. Across Facebook, the link was shared just under 2 million times after Harris announced her candidacy in July, including 1.4 million times in the first 10 days. For comparison, the most popular Trump donation link peaked at 174,000 shares in October.

That figure is perplexing compared to actual voting results, but the emergence of the Times as the top publisher on Facebook last month is even stranger — especially when you consider the sites that have occupied that spot all year. Between November 2023 and July 2024, the most popular news articles on the platform were all from a blog called Catholic Fundamentalism. Only obituaries for beloved cultural figures like Matthew Perry and Shannen Doherty came close to breaking its run.

«

But but but:

»

Garbage Day data confirms that news engagement on Facebook has cratered since early last year. The Times’ popularity has sent it higher than it’s been in a while, but even still, it’s less than half of where it was in early 2023.

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No joke: The Onion parody website buys Alex Jones’ Infowars out of bankruptcy • Reuters

Dietrich Knauth and Katie Paul:

»

Like a headline lifted from the Onion, the parody news website is buying conspiracy theorist Alex Jones’ Infowars in a bankruptcy auction.

The Onion said in a statement on Thursday it aims to replace Infowars’ “relentless barrage of disinformation” with the Onion’s “noticeably less hateful disinformation.”

Financial terms of the purchase were not disclosed. Infowars’ website was shut down on Thursday and the Onion said it aimed to relaunch the platform in January.

The purchase marks a sharp turn for Infowars, one of the internet’s most notorious purveyors of right-wing conspiracy content and misleadingly marketed, opens new tab dietary supplements.
Founded in 1999, it became a prime example of how online media platforms could exploit tech companies’ hands-off approach to moderating content and disseminate evidence-free claims to vast audiences.

Among those theories were false claims that the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington and the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut were staged.

The Onion, led by a CEO who spent years covering online disinformation and extremism as an NBC News reporter, had the backing of several families of Sandy Hook shooting victims for its bid.
It will acquire Infowars’ intellectual property, including its website, customer lists and inventory, certain social media accounts and the Infowars production equipment, the families said.

Jones filed for bankruptcy protection in 2022 after courts ordered him to pay $1.5bn for defaming the families of 20 students and six staff members killed in the Sandy Hook shooting.

Unable to pay those legal judgments, Jones was forced to auction his assets, including Infowars, in bankruptcy.

«

Irony is, in fact, not dead. It could only have been better if Jones had had to give the title away, rather than getting some money for it in the auction. Not that that will cover his court debts. Update: the sale is on hold because there were only two bidders and.. Jones had a higher bid?
unique link to this extract


• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.

Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified

Start Up No.2333: Musk irks Trump cadre, cycling’s new “doping”, 23andme chops staff, Russia’s “Deathonomics”, and more


An update to Apple’s iOS will mean AirTags will share their location with airlines – a boon for finding luggage. CC-licensed photo by Luigi Rosa on Flickr.

You can sign up to receive each day’s Start Up post by email. You’ll need to click a confirmation link, so no spam.


There’s another post coming this week at the Social Warming Substack on Friday at 0845 UK time. Free signup.


A selection of 9 links for you. Localised. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


Elon Musk may already be overstaying his welcome in Trump’s orbit • NBC News

Dasha Burns, David Ingram and Julie Tsirkin:

»

Tech billionaire Elon Musk was handed a major win Tuesday evening when President-elect Donald Trump announced that the Tesla and SpaceX CEO would co-lead a new “Department of Government Efficiency” with Vivek Ramaswamy.

The announcement reinforces the closeness that Musk has managed to achieve with Trump, even after the election. But for some people in Trump’s orbit, Musk’s presence has felt overbearing. 

Musk has been so aggressive in pushing his views about Trump’s second term that he’s stepping on the toes of Trump’s transition team and may be overstaying his welcome at Mar-a-Lago, according to two people familiar with the transition who have spent time at the  Palm Beach, Florida, resort over the past week. 

The sources said that Musk’s near-constant presence at Mar-a-Lago in the week since Election Day had begun to wear on people who’ve been in Trump’s inner circle longer than the tech billionaire and who see him as overstepping his role in the transition. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because they’re not authorized to speak publicly. 

“He’s behaving as if he’s a co-president and making sure everyone knows it,” one of the people said of Musk. 

“And he’s sure taking lots of credit for the president’s victory. Bragging about America PAC and X to anyone who will listen. He’s trying to make President Trump feel indebted to him. And the president is indebted to no one,” this person added. 

«

That the new department (which would have to be created through some sort of Congressional act?) is called “DOGE” would be eye-rolling enough. Politics is about to become “interesting” again, unfortunately. And the clock is already ticking on how long it will be before Musk and Trump fall out.
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Apple AirTags to start sharing bag location directly with airlines • The Washington Post

Chris Dong:

»

When Apple introduced its location-tracking device more than three years ago, it quickly became a traveler favorite for one major reason: the ability to keep tabs on checked luggage. Now, AirTags are about to get a major update that will help fliers get reunited with their missing bags.

Apple announced a new feature Monday called “Share Item Location,” providing users the ability to securely communicate an AirTag’s location to third parties — including airlines.

Once rolled out as part of an upcoming iOS update, it could alter how missing items are found, retrieved and returned to their owners at airports around the world.

To start, Apple plans to work with 15 airlines globally, including Delta Air Lines and United Airlines in the United States. These carriers will integrate the new shared tracking technology directly into their customer service processes in the coming months.

Locating mishandled bags, a catchall industry term for lost, damaged or delayed, will look a lot different than today.

“Having an AirTag was great before, but there was no official policy for getting your bag back even if you could show its location to an airline employee,” said Stella Shon, a consumer travel expert for Upgraded Points. “The sharing functionality is a game-changing feature.”

«

The airlines are: Aer Lingus, Air Canada, Air New Zealand, Austrian Airlines, British Airways, Brussels Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Eurowings, Iberia, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, Lufthansa, Qantas, Singapore Airlines, Swiss International Air Lines, Turkish Airlines, United, Virgin Atlantic, and Vueling. All of a sudden, AirTags seem a worthwhile purchase!
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Romain Bardet: “carbon monoxide can explain the trajectory of some people we didn’t know about a year ago… it’s now up to the authorities to decide whether or not to ban” • Cyclinguptodate

Kieran Wood:

»

An aggressive approach called carbon monoxide inhalation, steps into the scientifically new and much riskier realm of inhaling the lightly poisonous gas (carbon monoxide) for the express purpose of performance enhancement. A growing body of recent scientific research suggests inhalation can have a powerful impact on measures of aerobic capacity like VO2max, or maximal oxygen uptake with reported links to teams such as UAE Team Emirates, Team Visma | Lease a Bike and Israel – Premier Tech. 

In an extensive interview with Eurosport upon the end of his career, Bardet was asked for a rider’s view on the controversial topic that currently escapes a WADA ban. “Honestly, I learned about it from the press. You see the studies. Anything is possible. I’ve never heard of anything, but then again, I wouldn’t be surprised. There’s so much research being done into the idea of optimising performance…” the Frenchman assesses. “It’s not surprising that there are some researchers, some teams, some people involved in cycling who are looking elsewhere. There will always be a desire to find competitive advantages.”

Is it a fair advantage though or should the use of carbon monoxide for performance gain be banned? “It’s up to each individual to set the threshold of what seems ethical and fair in the absolute and desperate search for the end result in relation to his or her values. It’s like ketones, like so many things, it’s open to interpretation. And unfortunately, since the rules are not clearly laid down, since this interpretation is left to the discretion of each individual and since we’re in an ultra-competitive sport where only victory counts, we shouldn’t be surprised by possible deviations,” Bardet ponders.

«

The Eurosport interview is in French. A report in July quotes one team saying that sure, they use CO rebreathing to monitor riders’ physiology.

Why? How? Because CO binds to haemoglobin (to make carboxyhaemoglobin) and prevents it carrying oxygen, stimulating (in theory) the body to produce more haemoglobin, which is what cyclists want. Except the teams say it’s just to measure haem levels, to see how their training is progressing.

The cycling world can’t seem to decide if it’s good, bad or illegal. (CO in large doses will kill you.)
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23andMe cuts 40% of staff in restructuring • TechCrunch

Maxwell Zeff:

»

23andMe announced on Monday it would cut 40% of its workforce, representing more than 200 employees, as part of a restructuring at the company. The genetic testing company is also discontinuing its therapeutics business and winding down its clinical trials; it expects these changes to save $35m annually.

“We are taking these difficult but necessary actions as we restructure 23andMe and focus on the long-term success of our core consumer business and research partnerships,” said CEO and co-founder Anne Wojcicki in a press release. “I want to thank our team for their hard work and dedication to our mission.”
On Tuesday, 23andMe reported $44m in revenue during the second quarter, a decline from $50m during the same period last year.

The mass workforce reductions mark the latest disruption in a tumultuous year for 23andMe. In September, 23andMe’s entire board of directors — including Silicon Valley icons such as YouTube CEO Neal Mohan — resigned following Wojcicki’s attempt to take the company private in August.

«

Cutting nearly half your workforce suggests you’re in really deep trouble. But it is: in that second quarter it made a $59m loss. Don’t worry, though: in the year-ago quarter it lost $75m! Things are looking up!

Genomics has been a disappointment to so many: turns out too few people want to have their DNA sequenced to tell them what grisly unavoidable diseases lie in their distant future. Or whether they’re 1/64 Viking.
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Exxon CEO Darren Woods: Donald Trump shouldn’t scrap methane regulations • Semafor

Tim McDonnell:

»

US President-elect Donald Trump’s aspiration to unleash a lot more oil and gas drilling domestically faces a fundamental obstacle: the global market is already well-supplied, the CEO of ExxonMobil told Semafor at the opening of COP29.

Darren Woods was in Baku for just one day of the global climate summit, ready to convince world leaders and thousands of highly skeptical activists that companies like Exxon can and should play a more proactive role in solving the climate crisis. But that doesn’t mean transitioning away from fossil fuels, the goal that was adopted by negotiators at COP28 last year, Woods said. Instead, Exxon’s approach is to engineer technologies that allow fossil fuels to be burned with lower carbon emissions, which in Woods’ view will serve the company’s bottom line as much as the global climate. Government policies designed to force a rapid phaseout of oil and gas consumption are the wrong strategy, he said: “A lot of the policies that have been pursued to date, which force you to choose between affordable energy and reduced emissions, aren’t working.”

But Woods agreed with recent comments from Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, that the Trump administration shouldn’t move to scrap the Biden administration’s regulation to curb methane emissions from oil and gas operations.

«

This is the thing: the market is moving in one direction on fossil fuels, and just as in Trump’s first term when he talked a lot about coal and the market turned away from it, so one should expect the same this time.
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Nicholas Carlson, former Business Insider editor, launches media start-up • The New York Times

Benjamin Mullin:

»

Nicholas Carlson has witnessed spectacular failures in the tech and media worlds over the years. As the former top editor of Business Insider, he chronicled the carnage at Yahoo and Groupon, and then watched several Silicon Valley companies and rival publications make an ill-fated “pivot to video.”

Now Mr. Carlson, 41, is trying to put the lessons he learned to good use. He is preparing to debut a media start-up of his own — one with a focus on video.

The new company, Dynamo, is betting big on the growing popularity of video on platforms such as YouTube, TikTok and LinkedIn. It will produce “cinematic” video stories for those platforms, Mr. Carlson said, focusing on business journalism for a core group of strivers that he calls “dynamos.”

The average dynamo — Mr. Carlson considers himself one — is an ambitious, career-oriented viewer who believes that business can explain the world.
And he is quick to assert that his new company has more in common with Mr. Beast, the mega-popular YouTube star, than it does with Facebook Watch, a video service that was shuttered after struggling for years.

“We’re not pivoting to video,” Mr. Carlson said with a laugh. “We’re cannonballing into the deep end of video.”

Many media companies that have created content specifically for social media platforms have had a tough road. But Mr. Carlson said skyrocketing video viewership on tech platforms pointed to a business opportunity that had not been tapped by companies specializing in high-quality video journalism.

«

This, and the next story, show how much the media ground is shifting.
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Broadcaster Chris Wallace quits CNN to build future in streaming or podcasting • The Daily Beast

Hugh Dougherty:

»

Chris Wallace is quitting CNN after three years as one of its biggest stars, he exclusively told the Daily Beast Monday.

The 77-year-old broadcaster said he will instead find a new home on an independent platform such as streaming or podcasting, which he described as “where the action seems to be.” He highlighted how podcasters including Joe Rogan and Charlamagne tha God had set the agenda during the presidential election, but added, “I don’t flatter myself to think I will have that sort of reach.”

The stunning decision by Wallace to walk away from CNN at the end of his three-year, seven-figure contract, rather than to renegotiate it, is a watershed moment for cable TV. It comes as other anchors face being fired or having salaries cut as declining ratings and cord-cutting hit the industry’s bottom line.

Wallace was one of the main faces of CNN’s election night coverage last week, correctly forecasting that Kamala Harris would need a “miracle” to win as the first exit polls showed the depths of her electoral difficulty. He came to CNN in 2021 after 18 years at Fox News, where he had interviewed Donald Trump repeatedly and earned praise for his handling of the fiery 2020 presidential debate between Trump and Joe Biden.

But he told the Daily Beast that his career in broadcast television–which began on local TV in Chicago in 1973 and spanned NBC’s The Today Show and Meet The Press, ABC’s PrimeTime Live and Fox News Sunday before he joined CNN–will be over when his contract lapses at the end of the year, describing it as “quite liberating.”

«

One would hope that Wallace isn’t depending on building a gigantic audience to pay the bills. Best guess is he starts a podcast which is also on YouTube. The Trump years are going to be kerching! times for politics analysts in the US, and Wallace is great at it.
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Russia’s war in Ukraine is powered by ‘Deathonomics’ • WSJ

Georgi Kantchev and Matthew Luxmoore:

»

Going to war is now a rational economic choice in Russia’s impoverished hinterlands.

Facing heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia is offering high salaries and bonuses to entice new recruits. In some of the country’s poorest regions, a military wage is as much as five times the average. The families of those who die on the front lines receive large compensation payments from the government.

These are life-changing sums for those left behind. Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev calculates that the family of a 35-year-old man who fights for a year and is then killed on the battlefield would receive around 14.5 million rubles, equivalent to $150,000, from his soldier’s salary and death compensation. That is more than he would have earned cumulatively working as a civilian until the age of 60 in some regions. Families are eligible for other bonuses and insurance payouts, too.

“Going to the front and being killed a year later is economically more profitable than a man’s further life,” Inozemtsev said, a phenomenon he calls “deathonomics.”

So many soldiers have now been killed that the payments—totaling as much as $30 billion in the past year as of June—are a telling symptom of how the war is transforming Russian society and the economy at large. Since the start of the invasion, the Kremlin has boosted military spending to post-Soviet highs, offsetting some of the impact of Western sanctions. Weapons factories work around the clock, providing employment and high wages.

Now the mounting death payments are providing an injection of wealth into some of Russia’s poorest areas in return for a steady stream of soldiers for the war effort. Poverty levels are now at their lowest since data collection began in 1995, according to official statistics. Perceptions of what it means to join the military have been transformed.

«

It is rather weird; it feels like going back to the Middle Ages, when being a mercenary was a legitimate life choice that someone might make. (Thanks Karsten for the link.)
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Teen infected in Canada’s first bird flu case is in critical condition • The Washington Post

Lena Sun:

»

A Canadian teenager infected with bird flu — that country’s first case involving a locally acquired infection — is in critical condition and experiencing difficulty breathing, health officials said Tuesday.
The previously healthy British Columbia teen went to a hospital emergency room Nov. 2 with initial symptoms of pink eye, fever and cough, conditions common to many respiratory illnesses, Bonnie Henry, provincial health officer, said during a news conference. The teen was sent home.

But after the patient’s condition deteriorated, the teen was admitted to BC Children’s Hospital in Vancouver late Friday.

So far, no one who came into contact with the teen has fallen ill.

After a presumptive positive test for bird flu, the teen began receiving Tamiflu, an antiviral treatment. That medication works best when given in the first days of illness but is less effective in treating severe sickness, Henry said.

During the weekend, the teen received treatment to address severe respiratory conditions, Henry said.
“They are experiencing acute respiratory distress,” Henry said.

Severe illness occurs when a profusion of virus particles travel deep into the lungs causing viral pneumonia, making it hard for the body to get oxygen, she said.

Health officials do not yet know how the patient was exposed.

«

Totally a watching brief, nothing to be alarmed about, not at all. (Actually it isn’t, unless this thing figures out how to spread between humans.) (Thanks Joe S for the link.)
unique link to this extract


• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?

Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.


Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified

Start Up No.2332: bitcoin hits a new high, the AI translator cometh, how ChatGPT is killing Chegg, needing nuclear, and more


Getting two child seats into the back of a normal car is fine – but three isn’t. A study suggests that limits family sizes. CC-licensed photo by Oregon Department of Transportation on Flickr.

You can sign up to receive each day’s Start Up post by email. You’ll need to click a confirmation link, so no spam.


There’s another post coming this week at the Social Warming Substack on Friday at 0845 UK time. Free signup.


A selection of 9 links for you. Strapped up. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. Observations and links welcome.


Bitcoin hits record high as Trump vows to end crypto crackdown • Ars Technica

Ashley Belanger:

»

Bitcoin hit a new record high late Monday, its value peaking at $89,623 as investors quickly moved to cash in on expectations that Donald Trump will end a White House crackdown that intensified last year on crypto.

While the trading rally has now paused, analysts predict that bitcoin’s value will only continue rising following Trump’s win—perhaps even reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024, CNBC reported.

Bitcoin wasn’t the only winner emerging from the post-election crypto trading. Crypto exchanges like Coinbase also experienced surges in the market, and one of the biggest winners, CNBC reported, was dogecoin, a cryptocurrency linked to Elon Musk, who campaigned for Trump and may join his administration. Dogecoin’s value is up 135% since Trump’s win.

On the campaign trail, Trump began wooing the cryptocurrency industry, seeking donations and votes by promising to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet,” Fortune reported. He announced the launch of his own crypto platform, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), and vowed to “fire” Gary Gensler—the Securities and Commission Exchange (SEC) chair leading the US crypto crackdown—on “day one” in office, Al Jazeera reported.

Whether Trump can actually fire Gensler is still up in the air, The Washington Post reported. It seems more likely that Trump may demote Gensler, The Post reported, since people familiar with the matter suggested that “fully outing” the current SEC chair “could trigger a novel and complicated legal battle over the president’s authorities.” So far, Gensler has made no indications that he will step down once Trump takes office, although The Post noted that wouldn’t be considered unusual.

Sources told The Post that Trump is considering “a mix of current regulators, former federal officials, and financial industry executives,” for leadership positions, “many of whom have publicly expressed pro-crypto views.”

«

It’s like digital herpes. You think you’ve got rid of it, and that it’s vanished, but no, it just keeps coming back, bigger than ever.
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‘It gets more and more confused’: can AI replace translators? • The Guardian

Kezza MacDonald:

»

Dutch publisher Veen Bosch & Keuning’s announcement that it would use AI translation for commercial fiction has outraged both authors and translators – despite attempts to reassure them with promises that no books will be translated in this way without careful checking and that authors will have to give consent.

“A translator translates more than just words, we build bridges between cultures, taking into account the target readership every step of the way,” says Michele Hutchison, winner of 2020’s International Booker prize for her translation of Lucas Rijneveld’s The Discomfort of Evening. “We smuggle in subtle clues to help the reader understand particular cultural elements or traditions. We convey rhythm, poetry, wordplay, metaphor. We research the precise terminology for say agricultural machinery, even in a novel.”

Translators and authors have also pointed out that AI translation requires very careful checking and editing – ideally by someone who knows both languages. At that point, that person may as well be translating the text themselves. Cultural sensitivity is a particular concern, as AI has been known to produce things that are wildly inappropriate.

“Last year a reader flagged some issues in a French edition of one of my books,” says Juno Dawson, author of the Her Majesty’s Royal Coven series. “The translator had used a slightly outdated term to describe a trans person. We were able to change the term before publication. It’s these nuances I suspect AI would miss, meaning that AI generated content would then require stringent editing anyway.”

There are however some scenarios in which machine translation could arguably help the creators of cultural works. For writers working in minority languages, for instance, whose works are not currently translated into English or other languages at all, an AI-assisted translation could bring them to the attention of many more readers. And in video games, localisation can be one of the bigger costs for smaller independent developers, especially those for whom English is not a native language.

«

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How ChatGPT brought down an online education giant • WSJ

Miles Kruppa:

»

Most companies are starting to figure out how artificial intelligence will change the way they do business. Chegg is trying to avoid becoming its first major victim.

The online education company was for many years the go-to source for students who wanted help with their homework, or a potential tool for plagiarism. The shift to virtual learning during the pandemic sent subscriptions and its stock price to record highs.

Then came ChatGPT. Suddenly students had a free alternative to the answers Chegg spent years developing with thousands of contractors in India. Instead of “Chegging” the solution, they began canceling their subscriptions and plugging questions into chatbots.

Since ChatGPT’s launch, Chegg has lost more than half a million subscribers who pay up to $19.95 a month for prewritten answers to textbook questions and on-demand help from experts. Its stock is down 99% from early 2021, erasing some $14.5bn of market value. Bond traders have doubts the company will continue bringing in enough cash to pay its debts.

Though Chegg has built its own AI products, the company is struggling to convince customers and investors it still has value in a market upended by ChatGPT.

“It’s free, it’s instant, and you don’t really have to worry if the problem is there or not,” Jonah Tang, an MBA candidate at Point Loma Nazarene University in San Diego, said of the advantages of using ChatGPT for homework help over Chegg.

A survey of college students by investment bank Needham found 30% intended to use Chegg this semester, down from 38% in the spring, and 62% planned to use ChatGPT, up from 43%.

“My concern is that the headwinds to Chegg’s top-line aren’t temporary—they’re more structural in nature,” said Needham analyst Ryan MacDonald.

«

This is going to require an almighty pivot, or else they’re ruined.
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Taylor Swift fans are leaving X for Bluesky after Trump’s election • WIRED

Vittoria Elliott:

»

Following the us presidential election, Swifties, the name for Taylor Swift’s fans, are fleeing X for Bluesky. X’s owner, billionaire Elon Musk, was one of Donald Trump’s biggest backers, funnelling over $100m into the Trump-supporting America PAC; stumping for the candidate on the campaign trail; and boosting Trump’s messaging on X. Musk also helped Trump tap into a distinctly right-wing male audience. Swifties, who have built a robust community on the platform formerly known as Twitter, took notice. By Thursday, less than 48 hours after Trump won the presidency, they were starting to flock from the platform for good.

“I love the idea of building a new community here and would love not to have to support Elon in any way,” says Justin, who goes by @justin-the-baron.swifties.social on Bluesky and asked to use only his first name for fear of harassment. “Elon is of course a big Trump supporter, which doesn’t align with Taylor’s values or the values of Swifties.”

Though there are Swifties on all sides of the political spectrum, the community prides itself on being a positive and accepting space. After Kamala Harris was announced as the Democratic nominee for president, Swifties began to mobilize to support her. In September, Swift herself endorsed Harris. In an Instagram post announcing her support, Swift cited AI-generated images of herself and her fans that had been used by Trump to imply she’d endorsed him.

…Irene Kim, an organizer with Swifties for Kamala, says that the outpouring of misogyny following the election pushed her and many other Swift fans to abandon X and seek refuge on Bluesky. Though research has found that hate speech and disinformation increased after Musk took over the platform, the election of Trump seems to have supercharged it. A report from the Institute for Strategic Dialogue found that in the 24 hours following Trump’s electoral victory, phrases like “Your body, my choice,” parroting the election night rhetoric of white supremacist Nick Fuentes, rose 4,600% on X.

«

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Yes, car seat laws reduce the birth rate • Mises Institute

Ryan McMaken:

»

Opponents of the Trump campaign had fun in September with some year-old comments from vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance. Apparently, in a Senate hearing during March 2023, Vance stated that car seat laws have an impact on the number of children parents feel they can afford. As quoted in the Ohio media site cleveland.com:

“I think there’s evidence that some of the things that we’re doing to parents is driving down the number of children that American families are having,” he said. “In particular, there’s evidence that the car seat rules that we’ve imposed — which of course, I want kids to drive in car seats — have driven down the number of babies born in this country by over 100,000.”

Anti-Trump activists got to work mocking the idea, and some suggested that Vance must have simply made these numbers up. 

Most of the mockery was based on the idea that a $100 or $200 dollar car seat is surely not the deciding factor in whether or not to have another child.  This claim may seem perfectly plausible to anyone who has never had children or has only had one or two small children at any given time. Anyone who has actually considered having a third child, however, knows that the cost of the car seat itself is not what dissuades parents from having an additional child. 

Rather, the realities of car seats and car-seat laws mean that a third child adds significant costs and obstacles in the form of a necessarily larger car. As anyone who has three small children knows, it is difficult to fit three car seats in the back seat or an ordinary car. This is why so many people with more than two children end up buying a minivan—which is more costly than a small sedan. The third row of seats is often necessary to accommodate a third car seat. Or, in some cases, the problem may be addressed with a large vehicle, such as a costly full-size SUV, that is sufficiently wide to accommodate a third car seat. 

Anyone who isn’t wealthy and who owns small cars has encountered this problem. When it comes to having a third child, it often becomes necessary to purchase a larger, more expensive car. This is about much more than the cost of a single car seat. 

This has been known for years among more honest researchers. For example, a 2020 study by business professors Jordan Nickerson and David Solomon plainly notes this challenge of finding a back seat in a vehicle that accommodates three car seats. 

«

Not what you’d expect, is it. But the study does suggest the effect is real. (Car seats are mandatory up to the age of eight in many states.)
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Apple explains why the M4 Mac mini power button is located on the bottom • 9to5Mac

Chance Miller:

»

As part of its dramatic redesign, Apple moved the power button on the M4 Mac mini from the back of the machine to the bottom. In a new interview, Apple executives Greg Joswiak and John Ternus addressed this surprisingly controversial decision.

In an interview posted to Chinese video sharing website Bilibili and spotted by ITHome, Ternus and Joswiak explained that the dramatically smaller form factor of the Mac mini forced Apple to find a new position for the power button.

Ternus and Joswiak said (translated):

»

Well, we’ve shrunk the size of it so much, right? It’s equivalent to half the size of the previous generation. So we needed to put the power button in the most appropriate spot because it’s so small. It’s convenient to press. Just tuck your finger in there and hit the button.

In fact, the most important thing is you pretty much never use the power button on your Mac. I don’t even remember the last time I turned on a Mac.

«

«

“The most appropriate spot”? I think he meant “most convenient for our manufacturing” – it’s on the plastic part, rather than having to drill into the aluminium.
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New York Times tech guild ends strike • The New York Times

Katie Robertson:

»

The Times Tech Guild, which represents more than 600 tech workers at The New York Times, announced on Monday that it had ended its weeklong strike despite not reaching a deal on a contract.

The union has been on strike since Nov. 4 and has regularly picketed outside The Times’s Manhattan headquarters. The strike was planned to coincide with Election Day, when readership interest is high.

The Times Tech Guild workers, which include software developers, designers and data analysts, will return to their jobs on Tuesday.

Kathy Zhang, the unit chair of the union and a senior analytics manager at The Times, said the strike “showed that we have the full support of subscribers and allies across the country going forward.” She said the union would continue to fight for a fair contract.

«

Coded Wordle and Connections and all the rest of the games so well they didn’t fall over like you hoped, eh? And the Guild’s demand to (lest we forget) get a veto over which letters to the editor are published seems likely to vanish too. Tech strikes are hard to make stick when you’ve built the products already.
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Don’t switch off clean power • Notes on Growth

Sam Dumitriu:

»

Britain used to be a nuclear superpower. In 1932, the atom was first split in Britain. In 1956, Britain opened the world’s first full-scale commercial nuclear reactor. Less than ten years later, it had built 21 more. As late as 1965, Britain had more nuclear reactors than the rest of the world combined.

Yet Britain hasn’t completed a new nuclear power station in almost 30 years and most of our remaining fleet is set to be taken offline in the next few years. Only Sizewell B, which opened in 1995, is planned to stay online past 2028. Assuming one unit at Hinkley Point C has not been completed by 2029, and Sizewell B will close for two months, then Britain will have no nuclear power whatsoever on the grid. For the first time in more than 70 years, the sun will set on British nuclear power.

For energy security, household bills, and net zero, this situation must be avoided. We can and should extend the life of our existing fleet of Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors (AGRs) to avoid it happening.

What will take nuclear’s place on the grid? Some of the time, it will be renewables like wind and solar. Batteries charged at times of high wind or sun will pick up some of the slack too. But there are limits to intermittent renewables and the short-duration batteries they charge. When the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing, our grid will more often than not fall back on expensive, carbon-emitting natural gas. The result will be higher emissions and higher electricity prices.

The planned phase-out of Britain’s remaining AGRs therefore threatens to derail the Government’s Clean Power by 2030 target. This is the finding of the now-Government-owned National Energy Systems Operator, or NESO’s new report into the feasibility of the Government’s “Clean Power by 2030” target.

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Xiaomi SU7 Ultra Prototype laps the Nürburgring in 6:46 minutes • Car and Driver

Jack Fitzgerald:

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Remember the other week when Ford’s CEO Jim Farley made a surprising announcement that not only has he been driving an electric Chinese sedan for the past six months, but he doesn’t want to give it up? That sedan was the production version of the standard Xiaomi SU7—the first car from Xiaomi, a Chinese consumer electronics brand. Xiaomi’s next step is the higher-performance SU7 Ultra, and a prototype version just lapped the Nürburgring Nordschleife in 6:46.87 minutes, which is hugely impressive, even though it doesn’t qualify for any production-car records.

A video released by the Nürburgring shows the Xiaomi prototype smashing the official lap records for production versions of four-door and electric cars. Not only is the electric sedan’s time remarkable, but the SU7 Ultra managed it while appearing to lose power around the 4:15-minute mark, as indicated by the onboard video.

Anything under seven minutes at the ‘Ring is an achievement worthy of praise, though the SU7 Ultra’s lap wasn’t considered an official production record attempt (the company intends to do that later) and instead falls into the Prototypes and Pre-Production vehicles list.

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Xiaomi really is becoming the anything manufacturer. Phones, fitness trackers, air purifiers.. and now cars. Apple must be envious. And this proof of the speed and maneouvrability of EVs is quite something.
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• Why do social networks drive us a little mad?
• Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see?
• How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online?
• What can we do about it?
• Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016?

Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more.


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