
Don’t throw away that disposable vape – you could use its internals to power a web server. CC-licensed photo by Vaping360 on Flickr.
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A selection of 10 links for you. Not inhaling. I’m @charlesarthur on Twitter. On Threads: charles_arthur. On Mastodon: https://newsie.social/@charlesarthur. On Bluesky: @charlesarthur.bsky.social. Observations and links welcome.
US and China reach deal to transfer TikTok ownership, trade officials say • The Guardian
Joseph Gedeon:
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Jamieson Greer, a US trade representative, said on Monday that Washington and Beijing have struck a framework agreement on transferring TikTok to US-controlled ownership.
Speaking after emerging from negotiations with Chinese officials, Scott Bessent said the deal was coming but declined to reveal the commercial terms.
“We have a framework for a TikTok deal,” the treasury secretary told reporters after coming out of high-level talks in Madrid. “We’re not going to talk about the commercial terms of the deal. It’s between two private parties, but the commercial terms have been agreed upon.” Bessent added that the Chinese team had made “aggressive asks” during negotiations, but did not explain what they were.
Li Chenggang, the top Chinese trade negotiator, confirmed later on Monday that two sides had reached a basic framework consensus on resolving issues related to TikTok through cooperation, reducing investment barriers and promoting trade. Li said friction between the two economic giants was normal, but warned Washington against continued “suppression” of Chinese companies.
“We would like to stress that the outcomes of the trade and economic consultations are hard won, and the US side should not, on the one hand, ask China to accommodate its concerns, whilst at the same time continue to suppress Chinese companies,” Li said in Madrid.
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The strong suspicion is that ownership will be transferred to Oracle. We will have to wait for the details to come out.
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Welcome to the ‘Turbulent Twenties’ • NOEMA
Jack Goldstone and Peter Turchin:
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Almost three decades ago, one of us, Jack Goldstone, published a simple model to determine a country’s vulnerability to political crisis. The model was based on how population changes shifted state, elite and popular behavior. Goldstone argued that, according to this Demographic-Structural Theory, in the 21st century, America was likely to get a populist, America-first leader who would sow a whirlwind of conflict.
Then ten years ago, the other of us, Peter Turchin, applied Goldstone’s model to U.S. history, using current data. What emerged was alarming: the U.S. was heading toward the highest level of vulnerability to political crisis seen in this country in over a hundred years. Even before Trump was elected, Turchin published his prediction that the U.S. was headed for the “Turbulent Twenties,” forecasting a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe.
Given the Black Lives Matter protests and cascading clashes between competing armed factions in cities across the United States, from Portland, Oregon to Kenosha, Wisconsin, we are already well on our way there. But worse likely lies ahead.
Our model is based on the fact that across history, what creates the risk of political instability is the behavior of elites, who all too often react to long-term increases in population by committing three cardinal sins. First, faced with a surge of labor that dampens growth in wages and productivity, elites seek to take a larger portion of economic gains for themselves, driving up inequality. Second, facing greater competition for elite wealth and status, they tighten up the path to mobility to favor themselves and their progeny. For example, in an increasingly meritocratic society, elites could keep places at top universities limited and raise the entry requirements and costs in ways that favor the children of those who had already succeeded.
Third, anxious to hold on to their rising fortunes, they do all they can to resist taxation of their wealth and profits, even if that means starving the government of needed revenues, leading to decaying infrastructure, declining public services and fast-rising government debts.
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This stuff puts me in mind of Isaac Asimov’s “psychohistory” in his Foundation and Empire series – predicting the shape of future events based on a mathematical-ish model.
And yet: this was written in September 2020.
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Is the U.S. likely headed for still greater protests and violence? In a word, yes. Inequality and polarization have not been this high since the nineteenth century. Democrats are certain that if Donald Trump is re-elected, American democracy will not survive. Republicans are equally certain that if Trump loses, radical socialists will seize the wealth of elites and distribute it to underserving poor and minorities, forever destroying the economy of the United States.
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What’s a four-year delay between friends, or enemies?
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UK ministers probe ‘child-protection’ Online Safety tweaks • The Register
Carly Page:
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The House of Lords is about to put the latest child-protection plans of UK regulator the Office of Communications (Ofcom) under the microscope.
On Tuesday, the Lords Communications and Digital Committee will hear from three prominent online safety advocates as it probes the regulator’s proposed new measures under the Online Safety Act (OSA). Andy Burrows of the Molly Rose Foundation, Rani Govender from the NSPCC, and Baroness Kidron OBE of 5Rights will be asked whether the changes will actually deliver more safety – or just more compliance burden, privacy nightmares, and unintended consequences.
Ofcom’s amendments aim to beef up the OSA with a fresh set of obligations for platforms. This includes more aggressive age-assurance rules to determine when users are children, new restrictions on livestreaming that require platforms to disable comments, virtual gifts, and reactions when minors are involved, as well as blocking viewers from recording children’s livestreams altogether.
The regulator also wants sites to deploy hash-matching to spot known illegal content – everything from CSAM to non-consensual intimate images – and roll out automated tools to flag grooming, fraud, self-harm, and suicide content.
The House of Lords says it will quiz the online safety campaigners about the likely effectiveness of Ofcom’s proposed new protections and whether the proposed new protections around livestreams are adequate, or if children should be banned from livestreaming altogether.
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It’s been such an elephantine pregnancy getting the OSA into law, and it still creates problems. This latest suggestion is just another bad one. Regulating the internet turns out to be incredibly hard; harder, arguably, than regulating people.
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Who will save the dictionary? • The Atlantic
Stefan Fatsis:
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In 2015, I settled in at the Springfield, Massachusetts, headquarters of Merriam-Webster, America’s most storied dictionary company. My project was to document the ambitious reinvention of a classic, and I hoped to get some definitions of my own into the lexicon along the way. (A favourite early drafting effort, which I couldn’t believe wasn’t already included, was dogpile : “a celebration in which participants dive on top of each other immediately after a victory.”)
Merriam-Webster’s overhaul of its signature work, Webster’s Third New International Dictionary, Unabridged—a 465,000-word, 2,700-page, 13.5-pound doorstop published in 1961 and never before updated—was already in full swing. The revision, which would be not a hardback book but an online-only edition, requiring a subscription, was expected to take decades.
Not long after my arrival, though, everything changed. Pageviews were declining for Merriam-Webster.com, the company’s free, ad-driven revenue engine: Tweaks to Google’s algorithms had punished Merriam’s search results. The company had always been lean and profitable, but the financial hit was real. Merriam’s parent, Encyclopedia Britannica, was facing challenges of its own—who needed an encyclopedia in a Wikipedia world?—and ordered cuts. Merriam laid off more than a dozen staffers. Its longtime publisher, John Morse, was forced into early retirement. The revision of Merriam’s unabridged masterpiece was abandoned.
…Dictionary.com couldn’t match Merriam’s history or reputation. Instead, the company was trying to position itself to “capture language at the pace of change,” to be “hipper and more experimental, but also rigorous AF,” Kelly said. (Dictionary.com added the slang initialism for as fuck ; Merriam still has not.)
The piecemeal efforts improved the dictionary’s quality and cool quotient. Barrett also loved the work: He was surrounded by colleagues who cared about language and how it was presented, verbally and visually. For a time, [the lexicographer Grant] Barrett could plug his fingers in his ears and tune out the sobering reality: Although he and his colleagues were getting paid well, “the dictionary business was crumbling,” he said. “So ride it ’til the wheels fall off. And the wheels fell off.”
Not long after Rock Holdings took over, the industry grew more challenging. Google’s “knowledge boxes” were hogging the top of search pages with definitions licensed from the British dictionary publisher Oxford, including synonyms, antonyms, and, eventually and predictably, AI-generated summaries of words’ meanings. The proprietary clutter pushed down traditional-dictionary links, and Dictionary .com’s traffic fell by about 40%. At the same time, the pandemic drained advertising revenue. The site tried to stanch the decline with more ads, only to create a worse user experience.
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Another industry flattened by search engines – particularly Google – and with no idea how to make the future work.
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Hosting a website on a disposable vape • BogdanTheGeek’s Blog
Bogdan Ionescu:
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For a couple of years now, I have been collecting disposable vapes from friends and family. Initially, I only salvaged the batteries for “future” projects (It’s not hoarding, I promise), but recently, disposable vapes have gotten more advanced. I wouldn’t want to be the lawyer who one day will have to argue how a device with USB C and a rechargeable battery can be classified as “disposable”. Thankfully, I don’t plan on pursuing law anytime soon.
Last year, I was tearing apart some of these fancier pacifiers for adults when I noticed something that caught my eye, instead of the expected black blob of goo hiding some ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) I see a little integrated circuit inscribed “PUYA”. I don’t blame you if this name doesn’t excite you as much it does me, most people have never heard of them. They are most well known for their flash chips, but I first came across them after reading Jay Carlson’s blog post about the cheapest flash microcontroller you can buy. They are quite capable little ARM Cortex-M0+ micros.
Over the past year I have collected quite a few of these PY32 based vapes, all of them from different models of vape from the same manufacturer. It’s not my place to do free advertising for big tobacco, so I won’t mention the brand I got it from, but if anyone who worked on designing them reads this, thanks for labelling the debug pins!
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So: it had a 24MHz CPU, 24Kb of flash storage, 3Kb of RAM. And yes, he absolutely managed to do it. Even while software companies are spending the rapid expansion of resources – CPU, GPU, RAM, storage – like drunken sailors, it is still possible to do a lot with a very little.
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Americans crushed by auto loans as defaults and repossessions surge • Carscoops
Chris Chilton:
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Many Americans love the feeling of driving a new car, but the price of that thrill is pushing household budgets to the edge. Auto loan delinquencies are spiraling, the nation now owes a staggering $1.66 trillion in auto loans, and some figures show scary similarities to the period right before the 2008 financial crash.
That’s according to a new report titled “Driven to Default: The Economy-Wide Risks of Rising Auto Loan Delinquencies” from the Consumer Federation of America (CFA). It describes auto finance in the US as being “at breaking point,” and criticizes Congress and the country’s federal watchdogs for stepping back, despite evidence showing they’re needed more than ever to protect buyers from unscrupulous dealers.
One of the reasons owners are struggling to keep their heads above water is the high cost of monthly car payments, caused in part by high interest rates. Figures show the typical monthly payment is $745 and 20% of buyers are saddled with monthly bills of at least $1,000. Things could get worse quickly because the $7,500 EV tax credit is due to disappear imminently.
And this time it’s not just subprime borrowers who are feeling the heat. Car buyers with above-average credit scores are twice as likely to fall behind on payments as they were before the pandemic. Younger buyers are hitting the payment skids in high numbers and the repossession rate across all age groups jumped by 43% between 2022 and 2024, according to Cox data.
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There have been similar gloomy “it’s like 2008!” warnings a few times in previous years, but it feels like they’re getting closer together, and perhaps worse.
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Three random words • NCSC.GOV.UK
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Combine three random words to create a password that’s ‘long enough and strong enough’.
Weak passwords can be cracked in seconds. The longer and more unusual your password is, the harder it is for a cyber criminal to crack.
A good way to make your password difficult to crack is by combining three random words to create a password (for example applenemobiro). Or you could use a password manager, which can create strong passwords for you (and remember them).
Avoid the most common passwords that criminals can easily guess (like ‘password’). You should also avoid creating passwords from significant dates (like your birthday, or a loved one’s), or from your favourite sports team, or by using family and pet names. Most of these details can be found within your social media profile.
If you’re thinking of changing certain characters in your password (so swapping the letter ‘o’ with a zero, for example), you should know that cyber criminals know these tricks as well. So your password won’t be significantly stronger, but it will be harder for you to remember.
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Or you could even use four, such as “correct horse battery staple”. No, wait, is it correct horse staple battery? (And how many are now using that?) Good to see the UK’s National Security Centre finally offering some useful advice, after the XKCD cartoon from which the advice is taken appeared some time in 2011.
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My first year without an iPhone • RAYON
Katie Lowe:
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This is mainly a guide for people who are using smartphones now and are interested in switching as I am focusing on the parts of life that are either amenable or totally incompatible with life disconnected. I’ll be honest about the parts of life that I simply have to live without, and I’ll be transparent about the techie workarounds but to be clear, I do not have a secret smart phone that I use everyday, lol. The last iPhone I had was a 12, and I lost it somewhere in the streets of Portland last winter when I was still carrying it around for my bus pass.
Some of you are absolutists, and that’s not going to work here. We can’t turn back time. You can absolutely live completely and fully without the internet, but you have to really change your life. You can totally live ethically with a smartphone, but you will also face struggles. In my opinion, living ethically in either path requires a lot of self-discipline and intentionality.
I work as an editor and marketer of books, and as long as I get my work done, I am not obligated to carry an iPhone for my job. Sure, there are apps like two-factor authentication that we use, and occasionally there’s social media marketing that I can’t do on a desktop, but those are pretty easy to work around, and I’ll explain how.
The other caveat is that I am still spending no less than 8 hours a day with access to the internet. I don’t want to make it sound for one second that I don’t spend a ton of time on the internet, because I do. I have wifi at home, I have wifi at work, and I spend 40 hours a week looking at screens (well, maybe 20% of that time I’m in meetings or reading printed manuscripts). With that said, when people talk about phone addiction or wanting to reduce screen time, I’m pretty sure they’re talking about how they use their phone in their leisure time. (Although of course, phone habits affect work and productivity, which I’ll get into below.)
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So if you properly want to rewind to roughly 2006, this is how. Might not be for everyone. Clearly works for her: she gave up her smartphone a year ago.
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Donald Trump calls for US companies to ditch quarterly reporting • Financial Times
Zehra Munir, Alexandra White and George Steer:
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Donald Trump has called for US companies to stop reporting quarterly results, adding that a shift to publishing figures twice a year will save them cash and allow executives to focus on their businesses.
The US president issued his call in a post on his Truth Social network on Monday, contrasting standard practice in the US with what he depicted as China’s more long-term approach.
Most publicly listed US companies are required to file quarterly and annual financial filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, known respectively as 10-Q and 10-K disclosures.
“Subject to SEC Approval, Companies and Corporations should no longer be forced to ‘Report’ on a quarterly basis . . . but rather to Report on a ‘Six (6) Month Basis’,” Trump said.
“This will save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.”
He added: “Did you ever hear the statement that, ‘China has a 50 to 100 year view on management of a company, whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis???’ Not good!!!”
…Markets including the EU and Singapore have already dropped mandatory quarterly reporting, with many groups disclosing their financials on a semi-annual basis.
“European companies report semi-annually, and I don’t know why President Trump would want to emulate Europe,” said Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at US bank Stifel.
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Stopped clocks and all that. The quarterly focus has been a problem for companies, though you can imagine that if it shifted to every six months then the quarterly madness to close sales would just be replaced by a six-monthly madness to close sales – but even more intense because they’ll have fallen behind in the previous three months.
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Does xenon really help you climb Everest faster? • Outside Online
Alex Hutchinson:
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In May, four British men climbed Mount Everest in an ultra-rapid expedition that took them from London to the summit and back in less than a week. The trip was organized by Lukas Furtenbach, an accomplished and sometimes controversial guide from Austria who has long sought to speed up Everest trips from their typical six- to eight-week duration. The breakthrough in this year’s expedition, according to media reports, was that the men inhaled xenon gas two weeks before they left in order to prepare their bodies for the rigors of high altitude.
The news prompted a flood of criticism, much of it focused on ethics and mountaineering culture. “Why not just fly up there in a helicopter and touch the top so you said you did it?” the American guide Garrett Madison asked. Those criticisms take for granted that xenon actually works—but scientists aren’t so sure. A new paper in the journal High Altitude Medicine & Biology takes a critical look at the claims and evidence for xenon as a mountaineering aid.
…First, the climbers reportedly spent ten weeks before the expedition sleeping in altitude tents at simulated elevations of up to 23,000 feet (compared to Everest’s peak of just over 29,000ft). There’s plenty of evidence that this really does trigger adaptations, for example enabling you to maintain higher levels of oxygen in your blood once you begin climbing and reducing the risk of altitude illness. Furtenbach has been using this technique with clients since 2017 for three-week Everest climbs.
The other aid is the generous use of supplemental oxygen while climbing. On the three-week expeditions, Furtenbach’s clients are each accompanied by two sherpas, so they have the capacity to carry plenty of spare oxygen.
…Using one litre of oxygen per minute drops the effective altitude from 8,848m to 7,185m; using two litres drops is to 4,489m, which is already below the elevation of base camp. These numbers assume you’re at rest; you need to inhale more oxygen to maintain your blood levels if you’re exercising. For example, doing light exercise while getting two litres per minute of oxygen bumps the effective altitude back up to 6,442m. The solution? Turn the oxygen up even higher. Furtenbach’s website promises “unlimited oxygen” with equipment capable of delivering up to eight litres per minute.
…To Luks and his colleagues, these two factors—pre-acclimatization in altitude tents, then high levels of oxygen flow—are enough to explain how the one-week expedition succeeded.
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| • Why do social networks drive us a little mad? • Why does angry content seem to dominate what we see? • How much of a role do algorithms play in affecting what we see and do online? • What can we do about it? • Did Facebook have any inkling of what was coming in Myanmar in 2016? Read Social Warming, my latest book, and find answers – and more. |
Errata, corrigenda and ai no corrida: none notified









